Michigan's Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission on Tuesday will begin what could be a days-long process of approving the final electoral maps for voting districts for the Michigan House, state Senate and U.S. House.
The electoral maps, which will be voted on in Lansing, will govern the state's elections for the next decade and, as currently drawn, could pit veteran lawmakers against each other in 2022. The vote comes after months of public hearings and feedback, map-drawing and comments for and against the new districts.
Whichever maps the 13-member panel picks, the last three standing of the 15 proposed, are expected to be challenged in court — likely on a variety of different issues. Public commentators have voiced concerns about the proposed maps' dilution of majority-minority districts, district lines that combine or divide counties and the division of some communities of interest in favor of keeping others whole.
If the commission chooses to act on any of those complaints and make map changes this week, a 45-day window for public comment could restart, pushing the approval of final district lines to February.
"I don't think there's any questions that we're going to see a litany of lawsuits from all sides and from varying perspectives and on various grounds," said David Dulio, a political science professor and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University.
"I think this is going to get tied up in court and for how long? Who knows," he said. "That throws a great deal of uncertainty at the political process, at least for the first couple of months of 2022."
Several Detroit-area lawmakers and activists plan to gather Tuesday ahead of the commission's meeting to voice opposition to the decrease in majority Black districts in the maps and to demand changes.
"Detroiters and Black citizens deserve to have their voices heard in the legislature and their specific needs advocated for!" the group led by Sen. Adam Hollier, D-Detroit, wrote in a statement. "We are gathering to make it resoundingly clear that the adoption of the wrong maps can have catastrophic effects on generations to come."
The once-in-a-decade redistricting process is Michigan's first to be conducted under a 2018 constitutional amendment that established an independent citizens redistricting commission. The panel, made up of four Republicans, four Democrats and five independents, has replaced the former system that left the redrawing of electoral districts to the majority party and often resulted in gerrymandered maps.
The process so far, for better or worse, has dragged into the public square the messy, complicated process of redistricting, Dulio said.
"Drawing maps for representative bodies in the Legislature is a really hard job. It's not an easy thing to do and I think not only the commission but everyone in Michigan is finding that out," Dulio said. "It's been more transparent this time around and that's allowed everyone to see just how difficult it is."
Detroiters and the state Department of Civil Rights have taken issue with the decrease in majority-minority districts out of concern that the Black vote had been diluted and minority voters would no longer be able to get a preferred candidate of choice through the primary elections.
The issue is likely to be one that comes up in public comment Tuesday and, potentially, in litigation after the final vote.
The commission decreased the number of majority-Black districts in the proposed maps by stretching Detroit districts into the suburbs in an effort to increase partisan fairness and "unpack" past efforts to isolate the Democratic vote to certain districts.
Cracking is the process of spreading a party's supporters thinly across districts so their votes count for less and are generally cast for losing candidates. And packing is a process in which map drawers concentrate a party's supporters into certain, limited districts so their influence is contained and doesn't spread outside those areas.
Black leaders have argued the commission did too much to "unpack" Detroit area districts, making it unlikely African Americans in the unpacked districts would be able to elect a Black candidate of their choosing if they were combined with suburban, white Democrats.
The commission's partisan fairness consultant, Lisa Handley, appeared to support the idea of moving away from Black voting age population percentages as the sole indicator of a minority group's ability to elect a preferred candidate in a report posted Monday.
In the report, Handley said that because Michigan is racially polarized, it would have to maintain minority opportunity districts. But she maintained that goal "does not necessarily require the districts be redrawn with the same percentage minority."
"In fact, many of the minority districts in the current plan are packed with far more Black (voting age population) than needed to elect candidates of choice, as indicated by the percentage of votes the minority candidates are garnering," Handley wrote.
Instead, the commission could analyze voter turnout and patterns to determine the percent minority population needed to win a district or examine previous minority-preferred candidate elections to see if those individuals would win in the new districts.
In a review of Wayne, Oakland, Genesee and Saginaw counties, Handley determined no county required more than 50% voting age population to get a Black-preferred candidate elected. In Wayne County, a "Black-preferred candidate would win every general election in a district with a (Black voting age population) of 35% or more." And in Oakland and Saginaw counties, a Black-preferred candidate would win with 40% Black voting age population.
Handley said she could not produce the same tables for primary elections because the preferences in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary were too varied.
"... it may become more challenging for Black-preferred candidates to win not only the general election but the Democratic primary — but only if voting in Democratic primaries is racially polarized," Handley wrote. "Unfortunately, it is not possible to ascertain exactly how much more difficult it would be — or even if it would be more difficult — given the lack of Democratic primary election data."
Commissioners adopted a plan earlier this month that will guide the final vote on district maps that will be used for the next decade of Michigan elections. The voting plan could be amended Tuesday.
The final vote will take place at the Cadillac Room in Lansing. The voting process will begin Tuesday but could bleed over into Wednesday and then Thursday if the commission is unable to complete public comment and the voting process in the 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. window those days.
Following public comment at the Tuesday meeting, the commission will receive presentations on each of the 15 draft maps that have gone through the 45-day public comment process: first the five Congressional, then the six state Senate, and then the four state House.
The presentations will be followed by commissioners stating their top two preferred plans so that the group can understand which maps are rising to the top. Commissioners then will discuss each of the 15 proposed maps.
When the commission moves into actual voting, each commissioner will vote for their preferred map, moving through Congressional, state Senate and state House options in order.
If commissioners are unable to reach a majority that includes two Republicans, two Democrats and two independents, then the commission sets out a plan to hold discussion and revote up to two additional times to see if the requisite majority could be met.
If the commission still fails to get a 2-2-2 majority vote, they'll move to ranked choice voting that will include maps submitted by commissioners from the existing map pool. During ranked-choice voting, commissioners will write their favorite maps in order of preference and the rankings will be calculated to determine which map is adopted.
If ranked-choice voting fails to produce a clear winner, the maps would be entered into a random selection process conducted by an independent accounting firm.
