After watching the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings get unveiled Tuesday, Miami fans had to channel their inner Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Yes, there is indeed a chance for the Hurricanes to make the playoff after the second set of rankings from the selection committee. Maybe even better than one in a million despite losses to Louisville and SMU.
Mario Cristobal’s team moved up three spots to No. 15 after Week 11, becoming the highest-ranked ACC program and leapfrogging idle Georgia Tech at No. 16.
“Miami, certainly with the nonconference win over Notre Dame, was a key factor in Miami ahead of Georgia Tech,” said Mack Rhoades, the selection committee chair and Baylor athletic director.
That subtle shift was enough to put the Canes into the current projected bracket as the ACC’s representative. In reality, they have a significant climb to even make it to the conference championship game and earn an automatic berth for winning the league. Unless chaos truly breaks out over the next few weeks to force multiteam ties, Miami almost certainly will have to impress the committee enough to earn an at-large spot.
And it sure looks like that door is ajar enough for the thing that often is The U’s downfall: hope.
Just look who is ahead of Miami and what they have to do to remain there.
College Football Playoff Top 25
No. 14 Vanderbilt lost to Texas on the road and needed overtime to survive Auburn at home on Saturday. The Commodores still play Kentucky, which pushed the Longhorns to the brink earlier this season, and end the season on the road against Tennessee, which will not want its in-state rival to earn a playoff bid with that win.
Rhoades also brought up nonconference schedules Tuesday. That’s an area that would heavily favor Miami if the committee compared it directly against Vandy. The marquee nonconference win was on the road against Virginia Tech, a team that fired its coach shortly afterward and won’t make a bowl game this season—potentially the same postseason fate as the other three non-SEC opponents on the Dores’ schedule in Utah State, Georgia State and FCS Charleston Southern.
Miami, meanwhile, beat a Fighting Irish team that the committee put No. 9 and seems to value quite highly right now.
“Notre Dame is a team, they’ve won seven straight games. Early in the season, they lost the two by a total of four points,” Rhoades said. “We really like Notre Dame as a complete team.”
The Hurricanes also have another win over a team in the current playoff field. They blew out South Florida at Hard Rock Stadium in mid-September.
“Even last week when we had a conversation about the Group of 5, they’ve always been a part of it,” Rhoades said of the Bulls. “The committee felt like, of the Group of 5 to date, they’re the most consistent. Had the win vs. Boise [State], at Florida was a really good win, beating a 8–1 North Texas team and their most recent win was versus a UTSA team that beat Tulane the week before.”
All told, Miami has the same number of losses as Vandy, two more wins over current top 25 teams and a better record against ranked opponents.
Then there’s the Beehive State grouping from the Big 12 in BYU and Utah, which both have a path to make it to the conference title game to face a Texas Tech team that already beat both of them this season. The Cougars have to go on the road to No. 25 Cincinnati next weekend, while the Utes close with three tricky tests against Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas.
With that kind of competition in the Big 12, especially if Texas Tech keeps rolling, it could ensure the league only sends one team to the CFP. In that case, Miami fans can rest easy thinking it will work out.
Then there’s the mighty SEC, which has the final at-large in the field in No. 10 Texas, plus the first team out in No. 11 Oklahoma. Again, here’s where those with a rooting interest in the Hurricanes can start to believe that won’t be a huge obstacle to overcome.
The Longhorns are in Athens, Ga., this weekend to play No. 5 Georgia and then host No. 3 Texas A&M to end the season. If they can make it through without a third loss, Miami might as well just tip the cap.
Then there’s the Sooners, who travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday to face off against No. 4 Alabama, which is looking to avenge Oklahoma knocking it out of the playoff last year. Brent Venables’s team also has to play Missouri and LSU, which still have plenty of talent despite their current records.
Which brings us all back around to the Irish. If the committee has just one or two at-large spots and Miami and Notre Dame both finish 10–2, they better honor the head-to-head or will face plenty of anger. What is the point in scheduling such games if the results are not going to be respected?
It also doesn’t hurt that Miami also travels to Pitt during the final weekend. The Panthers are No. 22 in the rankings so are clearly valued by the committee. They also have a decent shot at making it to the ACC title game regardless of what happens Saturday against Notre Dame at home. That will be another potential quality victory for The U to throw onto its already impressive résumé.
So yes, add up all those “What ifs?” and there is indeed a chance for the Canes to make the playoff.
This is always, at least recently, the exact point where the team finds a way to trip up.
It happened last year in winnable games against Georgia Tech and Syracuse that Miami somehow found ways to lose. It happened again this season against Louisville and SMU with a host of turnovers after the drumbeat grew louder about potentially challenging for the national title.
The good news for the Canes is they are back in the hunt after Tuesday night. That’s a double-edged sword, however, as Miami also has the thing that could kill them again: hope.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Miami Is Back in the College Football Playoff Hunt and That Might Be the Problem.
