So you need a few yards late in the game to move the chains and burn some clock. It’s a critical component of closing out games late — and not an area of strength for the Miami Dolphins. We’ve seen it play out against Jacksonville, against San Francisco, against the New York Jets and against against the Los Angeles Rams. Simply put, Miami doesn’t have the chemistry up front to really click and ensure defenders are accounted for as they look to convert first downs,
But seeing the numbers laid out relative to the rest of the NFL is quite the story — one recent graph produced by Michael Lopez showcases each NFL team’s probability of creating a first down on handoff plays between 3rd and 4th down. Miami? They’re sixth worst in the NFL.
Here's a new plot: What's the likelihood that each team picked up a first down on a 3rd/4th down handoff?
For the Cardinals and Texans, it's typically about 75%.
For the Seahawks, 37% pic.twitter.com/FyTgQsUFJ1
— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) November 10, 2020
Miami’s 56.4% conversion probability rate on running plays on 3rd and 4th down is certainly more comfortable than Seattle’s 36.9% likelihood, but it still comes up woefully short of an average NFL team by about 10 percent and is blown out of the water by some of the NFL’s best running teams. It should certainly help the Dolphins feel better to know that their Week 9 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, are tops in the league in this category and yet it was the Dolphins who stuffed Arizona on a 4th and 1 late in the game to help set up Miami’s game-winning field goal.
It comes as a surprise to no one who has followed the team that Miami must improve here. But how they go about doing so this season is a big mystery; the team’s best hope appear to be that the young players along the offensive line find more chemistry as we get later into the season. There’s certainly no key reinforcements coming via trade or free agency to help the Dolphins’ cause.
