The Met Office has had its say on whether people can expect more freezing conditions and snow after speculation that Sudden Stratospheric Warming could lead to another 'Beast from the East' hitting the UK in upcoming weeks. Wales has seen a wintery start to the year with flooding, ice and snow all causing chaos in January.
And as the month draws to a close it looks as though the uncertainty is set to continue, with the Met Office confirming that Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is underway - albeit a minor one. SSW's are often thought to lead to widespread snow and cold temperatures.
In a detailed blog explaining the weather trend, the forecaster wrote: "The warming is expected to peak towards the end of January. The strong westerly winds high over the Arctic, called the stratospheric polar vortex, have weakened and the vortex is partially collapsing.
Read more: Met Office forecasts when temperatures will finally rise in Wales
"However, the polar vortex has been unusually strong so far this year and although there has been a minor SSW, the winds are expected to rebound quickly, recovering to speeds around normal for the time of year."
The forecaster said that it can take a week or more for the impacts of a SSW to work its way down through the atmosphere and to have any influence on the weather in the UK. It also pointed out that not all SSW's lead to cold and snowy weather. For example, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘beast from the east’ whereas the SSW in January 2019 had no significant impact for the UK weather.
The forecaster said that current forecast expects only minor impacts: "The unsettled conditions are expected to impact the north and west of the UK at the start of February as frontal systems push south across the country, weakening as they go with parts of the south remaining largely dry. Temperatures will stay around average for many.
"Changeable weather is likely to continue through to the second half of the month bringing rainfall, heavy at times, again to the north and west. The south and east are expected to see some drier and brighter periods with some lighter rain. A brief spell of more settled conditions is possible in the middle of the period, bringing a greater risk of overnight frost and freezing fog, especially under clear skies with light winds. Temperatures are expected to be generally at or slightly above average, although a brief colder spell remains possible."
The Beast from the East in 2018 happened when the UK experienced a spell of severe winter weather with very low temperatures and significant snowfalls from late February to early March 2018. Daytime temperatures remained widely below freezing on 28 February to 1 March with a strong easterly wind and significant accumulations of snow across much of the country.
At the time, the Met Office issued two red warnings for snow. This was the most significant spell of snow and low temperatures for the UK since December 2010.
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