The Met Office has issued a forecast for the next three months covering the whole of summer, and says it is likely to be hotter than normal with a strong chance of heatwaves. The weather experts say current higher than average sea surface temperatures around the UK combined with global warming mean it could be a hotter than average summer - with less chance than usual of a wash-out.
The three-month outlook reads: "Predictions vary in prevailing conditions but there is, overall, an increased likelihood of high pressure being located near or to the south of the UK, with winds blowing more frequently from the west. Uncertainty in the location of high pressure leads to a more balanced outlook for rainfall with a slight reduction in the likelihood of a wet summer
"Despite these uncertainties, long-range models are consistent in predicting an increased likelihood of temperature being above-average overall.
"There is an increase in the likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions. Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean heatwaves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heatwaves compared to normal. Even with a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period, spells of wetter weather are likely bringing heavy showers or thunderstorms at times."
But there is a note of caution, the outlook adds: "The Outlook suggests there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures, with impacts from heatwaves possible. However, the increased chance of hot conditions could just as easily reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than heatwave conditions specifically. Heatwaves do not typically persist throughout a whole three-month period and therefore the Outlook does not imply continuous heatwave conditions."
