The decline of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has led her country for 13 years and has been called the leader of Europe, has been thrown into sharp relief. The situation could make the future of European politics increasingly uncertain, arousing concerns about possibly deepening turmoil.
Merkel has expressed her intention to resign as leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU). There has been a continued decline in her party's strength, and she has taken responsibility for the large drop in the number of seats held by her ruling coalition in two recent state elections.
Merkel has said she will continue to serve as chancellor through the end of her term of office in 2021. It is already being questioned whether she will be able to complete her chancellorship.
The key factor for the decline in her authority and the setback suffered by her long-running administration was her refugee policy.
When a large number of refugees from Middle Eastern and African countries flowed into Europe in 2015, Merkel emphasized human-rights ideals and promoted generous acceptance measures. This prompted objections from people who were concerned about such problems as a decline in public safety, a move that led to advances achieved by a newly rising right-wing party that chanted anti-refugee slogans.
The acceptance of refugees, most of whom are Muslims, has been accompanied by cultural friction, and has become a political and social problem. There is always discord among the ruling parties over the refugee problem. The vision initially pursued by Merkel, who championed an idealistic philosophy, seems to have been too optimistic.
Maintain multilateralism
Merkel's CDU is scheduled to choose a new leader at a party convention in December. The point of contention in the party leadership election will be whether the party should maintain Merkel's centrist policy line or lean toward a conservative course by adopting strict measures against immigrants and refugees.
All candidates for the election are unknown quantities regarding their abilities, and anxiety remains about whether the transition of power from Merkel will be smoothly carried out. There is no denying that Merkel has not sought to nurture a promising successor.
Cataclysmic change is spreading in various European countries, with established political parties declining, followed by a rise in the strength of populist and right-wing parties. There has been great change in the system under which the three nations of Germany, France and Britain cooperate in managing the European Union and stabilizing the region.
Britain is set to exit from the EU next March. Italy's populist government is at odds with the EU over fiscal expansionism. Poland and Hungary are continuing oppressive politics, and the EU is considering sanctions against them.
There remain such problems as reinforcing national border controls between the EU and areas outside the region as well as integrating eurozone nations. If Merkel becomes a lame duck and cannot play a central role in bringing the EU together, resolving these pending problems would be made even more difficult.
While U.S. President Donald Trump is bringing his America-first policy to the forefront, Merkel has continued to show her presence by adhering to her emphasis on free trade and multilateralism. Germany should maintain her policy, so the international order will not be disrupted.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 5, 2018)
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