MUMBAI : Export-Import Bank of India (Exim) has forecast India’s total merchandise exports to be at $98.45 billion, growing 33% y-o-y, and non-oil exports at $85.63 billion, growing at 28.3% y-o-y, during the second quarter of fiscal 2022 (Q2FY22).
The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick-up in growth in advanced economies and the resultant increase in global import demand. Increase in commodity prices has also contributed to the increase in India’s exports.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the third quarter, or October-December 2021, would be released during the first week of December 2021.
According to a statement, the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Saikat Sinha Roy, professor and coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Sarat Dhal, director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; N. R. Bhanumurthy, vice-chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and C. Veeramani, professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
“As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country," it said.
