Should Lewis Hamilton secure his fourth Formula One world championship in Mexico on Sunday it will be, without question, a remarkable achievement. He needs to finish only fifth or better to do so and if he does, with one more title than Sir Jackie Stewart, he will become the most successful British racing driver. On form, driving better than ever on every level, even greater glories are within his grasp. The plaudits will be his but Hamilton has been correctly forthright that it has been a team effort.
Now 32, he joined Mercedes in 2013, a move that surprised the F1 paddock. He had been with McLaren since he was a teenager and had won his first title with them in 2008, and they were a proven quantity. Mercedes had won only one race since rejoining the sport in 2010 and looked to be far from being championship contenders. Hamilton was partly persuaded by the promise for the future offered by Ross Brawn, the team principal at the time, and it proved to be the right choice. Within three years he had two further titles. Yet what the team have accomplished since Hamilton signed has been every bit as remarkable as the British driver’s achievements.
Last weekend at the US Grand Prix, Mercedes secured a fourth consecutive constructors’ championship. Should Hamilton wrap up the title at the Autodrómo Hermanos Rodríguez they will have won a fourth successive double of drivers’ and team titles. This has been achieved only three times: by McLaren between 1988 and 1991, when Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost shared the driving honours; with Sebastian Vettel’s run at Red Bull between 2010 and 2013; and by Michael Schumacher taking five for Ferrari between 2000 and 2004.
The Scuderia also won the constructors’ championship in 1999, making it six consecutive titles, a record that appeared to be one for the ages but as things stand Mercedes will be eyeing it hungrily. They have become the first team to defend the constructors’ title through a major regulation change and have done so with genuine competition from Ferrari and latterly from Red Bull. It has not been easy: the new car has proved demanding and offered some testing weekends.
That Mercedes have come together so strongly as to utterly dominate the V6 turbo-hybrid era has not been by chance. At Suzuka, where a spark plug failure all but ended Vettel’s championship hopes, Hamilton’s team had changed a faulty spark plug after qualifying and the technical director, James Allison, has identified such diligence and attention to detail as key. They are the benchmark against which the rest of the grid must be tested but can their rivals measure up next year?
Ferrari will expect to do so and their car is up to the task. Having started so strongly, the drivers’ title slipped away from Vettel over three races: Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, at all of which his car looked likely to be slightly quicker than the Mercedes in race pace. They can take that into next season but must find the extra power Hamilton’s squad are able to bring to qualifying to even things up – a task that is being pursued with vigour at Maranello.
But there is still more to be done. The intense pressure on the team needs to be managed and in particular by the president, Sergio Marchionne. His public criticism will not have helped. He has described the Scuderia this season as having “screwed up”, as “embarrassing” and of “ignoring” quality control. That is the sort of blame culture that Brawn and Jean Todt had to banish to secure those titles with Schumacher.
Equally, at that time, having Schumacher as No1 driver worked. The car was superior and he was strongly backed by Rubens Barrichello. Designating Vettel as No1 makes sense to win the drivers’ title but re-signing Kimi Raikkonen, who is past his best, has not made for the two-front attack needed to threaten Mercedes. Blooding the hugely talented youngster Charles Leclerc sooner rather than later may pay dividends – with rewards from a longer-term and bigger-picture approach in both management and at driver level.
Current standings
After winning the US Grand Prix, Hamilton has 331 points. Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel is the only driver who can catch him, but with 265 points he is 66 points behind Hamilton with 75 left to play for
What Hamilton needs in Mexico
• Hamilton will clinch the title by finishing fifth or higher in Mexico City even if Vettel wins the race
• If Vettel finishes second, Hamilton needs to place ninth or higher
• Hamilton is guaranteed the title if Vettel finishes third or lower
Points available per race
1st place: 25
2nd: 18
3rd: 15
4th: 12
5th: 10
6th–10th: 8, 6, 4, 2, 1
The season's remaining races
• 29 October: Mexico
• 12 November: Brazil
• 26 November: Abu Dhabi
Red Bull, conversely, are closing on something of a high. They had begun the season off the pace of their two rivals – half a minute back in Australia. Their Renault engine was underpowered and the car not performing as expected. Max Verstappen had his sixth retirement of the season at Spa, three of them having been engine-related, and the team’s frustration was clear. They will be with Renault for 2018 but afterwards may well take on Honda as a precursor to the regulation changes of 2021.
But in the short term there is optimism for next year. Renault have said they are months ahead in reliability testing on next year’s engine, while the chief designer, Adrian Newey, taking a more hands-on role has paid dividends. Daniel Ricciardo has had a string of podium finishes and Verstappen scored his first win of the year in Malaysia. A race later in Japan, having hounded Hamilton to the finish, he was describing the RB13 as a different car to the one in Australia.
They have the driver lineup to take the fight to Mercedes and Verstappen clearly believes they can, having signed a new deal until 2020 at the US GP. If Newey can work more magic and Renault put a few more horses under the bonnet, the three-way fight that was so sorely missed this year might be a reality in 2018. Then Mercedes and Hamilton really will have their work cut out to extend that remarkable winning run.
• This article was updated on 26 October 2017 to reflect the fact that the win in Malaysia was Verstappen’s first of the year but not his team’s, as Daniel Ricciardo had won in Azerbaijan
