The easiest way to leave a casino with a small fortune is to enter the premises with a large one. Perhaps that's why Mercedes is actively discouraging predictions of a repeat of last year's 1-2 in the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix, when George Russell and Lewis Hamilton not only controlled the race, but left the championship protagonists some way down the road.
It simply wouldn't be a safe bet.
"I've said let's just keep exactly the same car that we had last year, let's not change it, but unfortunately that's not the case anymore," said team boss Toto Wolff.
"So we've got to be very analytical of what is the car that we need for Las Vegas, what is the ambient [temperature], and can we replicate the kind of performances. But I doubt it.
"We just need to go there open-minded. It's a new weekend, and hopefully we're able to perform well."
Several factors are in play to reduce Mercedes' certainty of success. Last year the smoothness of the track surface and the chilly ambient temperatures of the desert night in mid-November (14C at lights-out) combined to flatter the W15's characteristics.
Throughout the ground-effect era, Mercedes has struggled to find the right balance of compliance in its suspension, particularly at the rear, so its cars have generally performed best on less bumpy tracks – and where lower ambients mitigate their tendency to overheat the tyres.
In Vegas, the cold evening temperatures combine with a track layout that discourages tyres from coming up to temperature: the long straights cool the tyres' surface, and there are no long, high-speed corners where thermal stresses really build (while Turn 17 is claimed by the promoters to be the fastest in F1, in truth it's merely a kink on a straight). But this year one of those inputs will be lower, since the race start is two hours earlier: 8pm local rather than 10pm.
There are other reasons for the team looking to manage expectations.
"I think it's very difficult to have a proper expectation of a performance because if you look at last year and this year, we won in all different races between last year and this year," deputy technical director Simone Resta said in the team's post-Brazil debrief video.
"It's quite difficult to draw a direct guess between how we were last year and how it's going to be this year.
"We are going into these races as motivated as ever. We're trying to prepare ourselves in the best way. The drivers, they are both quite positive and we'll try to maximise our performance."
Mercedes made fundamental alterations to this year's W16 with two key aims: to remove a weakness in slow corners, where its predecessors tended to understeer, and to generate more consistent downforce at slightly higher ride heights. Last year its ability to get its tyres up to temperature in cold ambients compensated for that understeer balance.
The project has had mixed success – a new rear-suspension geometry first trialled in Imola had to come off the car at the end of summer – but the W16's performance envelope is different enough that Mercedes is less confident about making predictions about where it will be strong.
"I would have said Silverstone was a great opportunity," said Wolff. "In Montreal we did win, but Silverstone not at all, and Spa, which was not at all."
Indeed, at Spa-Francorchamps – on paper a Mercedes track, smooth and with plenty of fast corners, and largely cold this year – was a rout. Andrea Kimi Antonelli was eliminated in the first segment of qualifying for both the sprint and grand prix, while Russell scored no points in the sprint and had an anonymous run to fifth in the grand prix.
"So I don't want to set our expectations based on last year's result," continued Wolff. "Because we've been beaten before… in Brazil, for example, we dominated one year, the next one was nowhere…"
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