Today in Campaign 2016
- Deep antipathy to Hillary Clinton exists within the FBI, multiple bureau sources told the Guardian, spurring a rapid series of leaks damaging to her campaign just days before the election. Current and former FBI officials described a chaotic internal climate that resulted from outrage over director James Comey’s July decision not to recommend an indictment over Clinton’s maintenance of a private email server on which classified information transited. “The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.
- Clinton is trailing Barack Obama’s performance in the 2012 election, according to early voting data that underlines fears of an “enthusiasm gap” for the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of all expected ballots have already been cast after a surge in people wanting to express their preference before election day.
- Melania Trump, whose husband has built a public profile partly around his vulgar and offensive Twitter account, called for a gentler and kinder America on Thursday, where children can spend time on social media without fear of harassment.In a rare public appearance, Trump portrayed her husband as a devoted family man with “deep love and respect” for all Americans with a speech intended to help soften his public image with women.
- A conservative lobbying organization is pressuring Republican senators to stonewall any supreme court nominees put forward by Hillary Clinton if she is elected president, a move that would break with 150 years of tradition for the senate to hold up-or-down votes on any supreme court nominees. The Hill reports that Heritage Action, a conservative policy advocacy organization, urged at a morning briefing today for Republican senators to commit to leaving the supreme court without a ninth justice for as long as half a decade.
Updated
Report: Beyoncé to campaign for Hillary Clinton
Citing an anonymous source, CBS News reports that Beyoncé will join husband Jay Z at a get-out-the-vote concert in Cleveland tomorrow in support of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
The concert will be the penultimate event in a series under the title Love Trumps Hate, and is aimed at boosting voter engagement for African American youth. This is not the first time the Clinton campaign has recruited entertainment industry powerhouses. At the conclusion of the Democratic national convention in July, Lady Gaga and Lenny Kravitz performed for Democratic delegates in a thank-you concert held in Camden, New Jersey.
Conservative group calls for supreme court blockade if Hillary Clinton wins
A conservative lobbying organization is pressuring Republican senators to stonewall any supreme court nominees put forward by Hillary Clinton if she is elected president, a move that would break with 150 years of tradition for the senate to hold up-or-down votes on any supreme court nominees.
The Hill reports that Heritage Action, a conservative policy advocacy organization, urged at a morning briefing today for Republican senators to commit to leaving the supreme court without a ninth justice for as long as half a decade.
The supreme court has been functioning, semi-successfully, without a ninth justice since February, when conservative stalwart Antonin Scalia died unexpectedly. The senate has refused to consider President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, declaring that the next president should be given the opportunity to shape the nation’s highest court.
“You’ve seen John McCain and others talk about the need to not confirm any liberal nominated to the Supreme Court,” said Dan Holler, Heritage Action’s vice president of communications and government relations. “That’s exactly the right position to have.”
A moving note from Tim Kaine’s law-school housemate:
Thirty-five years ago a new roommate moved into the attic bedroom. We were both single and trying to figure out our future. My parents called and asked what I thought of him. Long distance calls were expensive, so my answer was short and to the point. Thirty-five years later we are both married, fathers of three adult children and experienced in our chosen fields. My parents still call to ask questions about Tim. Voice plans now allow for unlimited talk, but my brief answer has never changed: “He’s the best person I have ever met.”
Hillary Clinton: 'I want you to hold me accountable'
Closing out her address in Raleigh, North Carolina, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said that “the best way to repudiate the bigotry and the bluster and the hatred and discrimination is to show up with the biggest turnout in history.”
“I believe America’s best days are still ahead of us if we do what we’re supposed to do,” Clinton concluded. “Every social movement, every economic advance, has only come about because people going to work and sacrifice and keep pushing forward in the affect of adversity.”
“It wasn’t easy to get the vote for women; it wasn’t easy to have the final efforts made to ensure that the Civil Rights Act was enforced; it wasn’t easy, because there are powerful interests still trying to push us back and push us down,” Clinton continued. “It is now our turn, our turn to stand up to people like your governor and your legislature who wanted to shut you down and push you back!”
“We are fundamentally a good nation - and we need to make sure we deliver on that promise,” Clinton urged the crowd. “You can make the difference - not only in who you elect, but in the agenda that those people then get to work. I want you to hold me accountable; I want you to be my partners.”
“Everything I’ve done started by listening to people - listening to hear your stories, what you’re worried about - and then working to bring people together to solve those issues,” Clinton said. “If you elect me next Tuesday, that is the kind of president I will be.”
“So, let me just mention a few of the ideas that we’ve been putting forward,” Clinton continued.
“This election’s been a lot more fun since we’ve been on the same side!” Hillary Clinton said of Bernie Sanders in North Carolina, after being introduced by the Vermont senator as the best hope for progressivism.
“As Bernie said earlier this year, when people who care about progressive causes stand together, we win - and then we can get to work on making those causes into reality,” Clinton continued. “I am so excited about the election, about everything that we’re going to do together - and I’m especially pleased to have Pharrell here!”
“Every time I see him - which is not often enough,” Clinton says, of the musician, “he is a passionate advocate for issues that are too often neglected and ignored.”
“Are you really, really, really, really happy that we’re here tonight?” Clinton asked the crowd, in reference to Pharrell’s hit Happy. “Well, we sure are! There’s nowhere we’d rather be!”
Hillary Clinton campaigns in Raleigh, North Carolina
Watch it here live:
Closing out his speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, Vermont senator and Democratic presidential also-ran Bernie Sanders told an ecstatic college-aged crowd that electing Hillary Clinton is a crucial step in protecting the hard-fought civil rights that his supporters value.
“We can disagree on many issues - but we have come too far, too many people have gone to jail, too many people have died in the struggle for civil rights. We are not going back to a bigoted society. And furthermore,” Sanders continued. “what we understand is our strength, our uniqueness, is our diversity. We should be proud of it!”
“We are not going to allow Trump or anyone to divide us up!”
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders lauded Hillary Clinton’s stance on the environment, and drew contrasts with, well, differences with Donald Trump’s platform.
“There is one [difference] that is very, very profound,” Sanders said. “Secretary Clinton believes in science. And I know, I know I put her in a difficult position. In 2016, to believe in science is a little bit dangerous, but what the heck.
“The debate is over - climate change is real, climate change is caused by human activity, and climate change is already, today, causing devastating problems in this country and around the world.”
Trump, meanwhile, “has concluded that climate change is a hoax emanating from China. Now, why he chose China and not Mexico or some Muslim country, I don’t know, but that’s the way it is.”
“This is not a funny issue. I’ve got seven grandchildren,” Sanders continued. “Our job as custodians of this planet is to make sure that we leave our children and grandchildren a planet that is healthy and habitable. And that means that we have to have the guts to take on the fossil-fuel industry and tell them that their short-term profits are not more important than the future of our planet.”
Donald Trump attempts to praise veterans:
I’m brave in other ways — I’m financially brave. Big deal.
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, campaigning for Hillary Clinton in Raleigh, North Carolina, hit hard on the subject of paid family leave, one of Clinton’s most committed policy planks.
“That is why Secretary Clinton and I will fight o guarantee 12 weeks paid family and medical leave!” Sanders vowed.
Hammering on his primary-campaign message of economic equality, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders alleged that there is a network of billionaires attempting to purchase the upcoming general election, and Republican governors who are stifling ballot access to further that end.
“As we speak, this very moment, billionaires around the country are pouring tens and tens of millions of dollars into senatorial campaigns, house campaigns, and campaigns of all kinds,” Sanders said. “What we are saying tonight is we will not allow billionaires to buy the United States government!”
“One of the major differences - of many, between Secretary Clinton and Mr. Trump is that Secretary Clinton has made it clear that she will work in every way to repeal this disastrous opinion, Citizens United!”
“In a democracy, honest people can have different points of view,” Sanders admitted. “But what is not democracy is when cowardly governors go out of their way to make it difficult for people to vote!”
After being introduced by music artist Pharrell, Vermont senator and former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders urged the college-aged crowd in Raleigh to become “politicians” by being a part of the political process.
“I wanna begin with a startling revelation” Sanders said. “Despite what media may tell you, this campaign is not about Hillary Clinton; it is not about Donald Trump; it is not about Bill Clinton; it is not about Melania Trump; it is not about their children. This campaign is about you, and millions of other Americans!”
“And this campaign is not a personality contest - we’re not voting for high-school president,” Sanders continued. “We’re voting for the most powerful leader in the entire world! And what this campaign must be about is which candidate has the experience and vision to work for the middle class and the working class and families of our country. And in my view, without a shadow of doubt, that candidate is Hillary Clinton, our next president.”
Bernie Sanders campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Raleigh, North Carolina
Watch it here live:
Appearing in Selma, North Carolina, more than an hour after he was scheduled to begin, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump declared that “in five days we’re going to win the great state of North Carolina, and we’re going to win back the White House - believe me.”
“You get out there and vote, because that’s the whole thing.”
Trump continues, making a “solemn promise” to the assembled attendees: “I will never ever let you down - I will tell you that. And you’ve been let down, you’ve been let down plenty over the years.”
More than an hour late, Donald Trump appears onstage in Selma, North Carolina:
If you missed it, the Guardian’s Spencer Ackerman reports that deep antipathy toward Hillary Clinton within the FBI may have spurred a rapid series of leaks damaging to her campaign just days before the election:
Current and former FBI officials, none of whom were willing or cleared to speak on the record, have described a chaotic internal climate that resulted from outrage over director James Comey’s July decision not to recommend an indictment over Clinton’s maintenance of a private email server on which classified information transited.
“The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.
This atmosphere raises major questions about how Comey and the bureau he is slated to run for the next seven years can work with Clinton should she win the White House.
The currently serving FBI agent said Clinton is “the antichrist personified to a large swath of FBI personnel,” and that “the reason why they’re leaking is they’re pro-Trump.”
The agent called the bureau “Trumplandia”, with some colleagues openly discussing voting for a GOP nominee who has garnered unprecedented condemnation from the party’s national security wing and who has pledged to jail Clinton if elected.
At the same time, other sources dispute the depth of support for Trump within the bureau, though they uniformly stated that Clinton is viewed highly unfavorably.
“There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.
Video: Melania Trump made an appearance in Pennsylvania earlier today and called on the country to find better ways to “disagree with each other.” especially on social media.
A nation burst out into tearful laughter.
It was Trump’s first public speech since the Republican national convention in July, when she was accused of plagiarizing parts of her address from Michelle Obama’s 2008 appearance.
Donald Trump campaigns in Selma, North Carolina
Watch it live here:
The governor of Wisconsin celebrated National Sandwich Day as he does most days: by eating a ham and cheese sandwich for lunch. The internet, dripping with disdain, asked the obvious question: why?
Celebrating #NationalSandwichDay with my daily ham & cheese sandwich and cranberry juice! pic.twitter.com/WNWaijjruj
— Governor Walker (@GovWalker) November 3, 2016
Is the Trump voter suppression plan working?
Thousands had gathered in an outdoor field on the campus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, braving the sweltering sun for hours ahead of what was likely Barack Obama’s final visit to the area as president, The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui and Richard Luscombe report.
With less than a week remaining until election day, Obama’s speech campaigning for Hillary Clinton was marked by a palpable sense of urgency amid a tightening race. But as the US president delivered what has become his routine stump speech for Clinton on Wednesday – branding Donald Trump a threat to democracy and attacking the judgment of Republican lawmakers who support their nominee – he invoked a lesser known name before the fervent crowd.
“I want you think about a woman named named Grace Bell Hardison,” Obama said.
Hardison was a 100-year-old black woman who had lived in the same town in North Carolina her entire life. Last month, her voter registration was challenged in her home of Beaufort County in what officials called an effort to “clear up” the voting rolls. Of the list of 138 purged voters that included Hardison, 92 were black and registered Democrats.
“That didn’t happen by accident,” Obama said. “There was a time when systematically denying black folks the right to vote was considered normal as well.”
Trump, he noted, was calling on supporters to monitor “certain areas” at the polls.
“They’re just out in public saying we’re going to try and suppress the African American vote on election day, or the youth vote on election day.”
This was a seeming reference to a Bloomberg story from last week in which an unnamed Trump official was quoted as saying: “We have three major voter suppression operations under way,” aimed at idealistic white liberals, young women and African Americans.
The critical battleground of North Carolina is in many ways the ground zero of concerns over access to the ballot among black voters.
Poll: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton neck-and-neck in Georgia
Donald Trump had better get on that midnight train to Georgia, because a new trio of polls from NBC and the Wall Street Journal show him leading by only a single point in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in nearly a quarter-century.
According to the polls, conducted in Arizona, Texas and Georgia between Sunday and Tuesday, Trump holds leads in the first two states - although by narrower margins than previous Republicans have relied on - but only leads Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by a single point in Georgia, an effective deadlock.
Trump’s single-point lead, 45% to 44%, highlights the demographic changes in the state, where increased minority and college-educated populations, as well as the swelling population of Atlanta, have given Democrats hope of a purple future for the state. In Arizona, where Clinton has been sending an Avengers-like squad of her top surrogates in recent weeks in hopes of flipping the state, Trump’s lead is more comfortable, 45% to Clinton’s 40%. In Texas, Trump leads by nine points, 49% to 40%.
Clinton has not campaigned in Georgia recently and has no scheduled appearances to make in the state.
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino has more on Melania Trump’s address on cyberbullying:
Melania Trump, whose husband has built a public profile partly around his vulgar and offensive Twitter account, called for a gentler and kinder America today, where children can spend time on social media without fear of harassment.
In a rare public appearance, Trump portrayed her husband as a devoted family man with “deep love and respect” for all Americans with a speech intended to help soften his public image with women.
“Our culture has gotten too mean and too rough, especially to children and teenagers,” Trump said at a sports center in Berwyn, a suburb of Philadelphia suburb. She drew cheers as she continued.
“It is never OK when a 12-year-old girl or boy is mocked, bullied or attacked. It is terrible when that happens on the playground and it is absolutely unacceptable when it’s done by someone with no name hiding on the internet.”
As first lady, Melania Trump said she would work to combat online bullying and harassment. As a presidential nominee, Donald Trump has used Twitter to mock and degrade his opponent and women who have criticized him. He also has a pattern of sharing posts from sources with a history of spreading racism, antisemitism or white supremacy.
Melania Trump’s speech was a direct appeal to suburban women who remain wary of the Republican nominee. His dire standing with women, and especially with white educated women who have been a cornerstone of Republican support, has imperiled his chances of winning key battleground states like Pennsylvania.
Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s younger son from his first marriage, told a Denver radio station that former Ku Klux Klan leader and current Republican senate nominee David Duke deserves to be assassinated.
“It’s disgusting and by the way, if I said exactly what you said, I’d get killed for it but I think I’ll say it anyway,” the younger Trump told Ross Kaminsky of 630 KHOW Denver radio after the host said that Duke deserved a bullet to the head, according to CNN.
“The guy does deserve a bullet. I mean, these aren’t good people,” Trump continued. “These are horrible people.”
Trump continued, lauding his father’s delayed disavowal of Duke’s support in February.
“In fact, I commend my father. My father’s the first Republican who’s gone out and said, ‘Listen, what’s happened to the African-American community is horrible and I’m going to take care of it.’”
New Colorado poll: Hillary Clinton leads by six points
A new survey of likely Colorado voters released this afternoon shows former secretary of state Hillary Clinton leading Republican rival Donald Trump by six points, an increase by four points since the poll’s last edition.
The survey, released by Magellan Strategies, found Clinton ahead 44% to Trump’s 38%, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trailing at 7% and Green candidate Jill Stein with 2% support.
Magellan’s last Colorado survey showed Clinton leading Trump by five points, 40% to 35%, while Johnson’s support declined by five points and Stein’s fell by three points, indicating that the lion’s share of former third-party voters has gone to Clinton’s camp.
Clinton leads Trump by 17 points among women, trailing among men by five points.
Donald Trump, speaking in North Carolina, rhetorically asked his assembled reporters that Hillary Clinton is crooked because, well, Hillary Clinton is crooked.
“Do you know why? Do you know why? Do you know why? I know the answer! I know the answer! Because she’s Crooked Hillary Clinton. Very simple. Very simple. Crooked Hillary.”
The audience responded with a boisterous and prolonged “Lock her up!” chant.
Donald Trump, ripping holes into Peter Thiels’ insistence that his proposed border wall with Mexico is metaphorical:
It’ll be a great wall, and the harder they fight, the taller it gets. The harder they fight, the taller.
Donald Trump, perhaps sensing the listlessness of his audience in North Carolina, interrupted a riff on his trade policy proposals to attack the news media that covers him as “bad people.”
“The crooked media. These are the world’s most dishonest people,” Trump said. “They have a very low rating right now, folks.”
“You could have done the greatest thing in the world,” Trump continued, as the audience turned and booed at the penned-in journalists assigned to cover him, “something yo do really really well, and then they see you and say ‘boy that was bad.’”
“They are bad people, I tell you that,” Trump continued. “And they try so hard, they try so hard to protect Hillary Clinton. And you know what? I think the gig [sic] is up. I don’t think it’s working anymore - don’t think it’s working.”
Donald Trump seemed peeved at a rally in Concord, North Carolina, when a crowd of “Build the wall!” chanters interrupted his riff on “jobs theft” by global interests that he accuses of pillaging American manufacturing.
“I won’t be able to shut you up until I say that, right?” Trump said, giving in to the chanters. “We will build the wall, and Mexico will pay for it.”
“I’m going to have over $100m in this campaign,” Trump continued after the sidetrack, overestimating the amount of his personal fortune that he has put into his campaign by roughly $35m. “I used to be the ultimate special interest.”
Donald Trump, speaking in Concord, North Carolina, told a raucous audience that Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign will likely “end in a criminal trial,” and declared that she has no right to run for president in the first place.
“She has no right to be running, you know that,” Trump said, to loud cheers. “We are going to Washington, and we are going to drain the swamp!”
Donald Trump campaigns in Concord, North Carolina
Watch it live here:
Speaking in Winterville, North Carolina, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton tied her fate to that of her beloved Chicago Cubs, the long-suffering baseball team that she grew up watching and which just won the World Series for the first time in more than a century.
“Who knows - maybe we’ll even see more history made in a few days?” Clinton said jokingly, to loud cheers.
“The last time the Cubs won, women couldn’t vote. I think the women are making up for that in this election!”
Hillary Clinton campaigns in North Carolina
Watch it live here:
Actor/dreamboat Chris Pine stars as... Congress (if Congress were a horrible, horrible coworker):
Donald Trump seemed to be a fan of Melania’s speech:
Watching my beautiful wife, Melania, speak about our love of country and family. We will make you all very proud. https://t.co/12unVAD9pI pic.twitter.com/s1MoWKROTt
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2016
Here’s a bit of Melania Trump’s speech:
.@MelaniaTrump "We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other." pic.twitter.com/47YL2y7ATG
— CSPAN (@cspan) November 3, 2016
What did you think of that Melania Trump speech? When she talked about being a kid in Communist Slovenia and hearing of Reagan’s election and being inspired? When she described her husband’s growing concern over the years as he watched workers suffering and his growing “very upset” every time he “heard of a factory closing in Ohio, or North Carolina or here in Pennsylvania”?
She made him sound like the workingman’s best friend since Woody Guthrie.
The Woody Guthrie who lived on Mermaid Avenue and wrote songs about his racist landlord Fred Trump:
Here’s a live stream of Donald Trump’s next rally, in Concord, NC:
Melania Trump decries anonymous internet trolls
Melania Trump: “Do we want president who is beholden to no one but you, the American people? Yes.”
The crowd applauds.
“Then we want Donald Trump to be our president.”
The crowd chants “Trump! Trump! Trump!”
“I will be an advocate for women and children... I’m a full-time mother to our son Barron, an incredible boy... I’m with our son. We talk a little bit about politics, and a lot about life, homework and sports. Barron has many privileges and advantages. We know how fortunate we are. ..
“I want my little boy to know that he’s blessed to be born in a country with... constitutional democracy...
“we need to teach our youth American values. Kindness honesty respect compassion charity understanding cooperation...
Now Melania Trump decries anonymous Internet trolls:
“as we know now social media is a centerpiece of our lives... technology has changed our universe, but like anything that is powerful it can have a bad side... as adults many of us are able to handle bad words... childrens and even teenagers can be fragile... they can be made to feel less in looks and intelligence
“our culture has gotten too mean and too rough, especially to children and teenagers...”
Trump, who riding the spearhead of the biggest coordinated movement of anonymous Internet trolls like, ever, including lots of Nazis, decries the scourge of insults dealt by “someone with no name hiding on the Internet.”
“We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree,” Trump says.
She’s done.
Melania Trump recalls husband's growing concern over workers' suffering
Melania Trump says “after a 10-year process which included many visas and a green card, in 2006 I studied for the test and become a US citizen. It is the greatest privilege in the world. I’m an immigrant and let me tell you, no one appreciates the freedom and opportunity more than me...
He loves this country and he knows how to get things done, not just talk.
He certainly knows how to shake things up, doesn’t he?
... over the years of our marriage, I have watched my husband grow more and more concerned as he sees workers suffer... parents struggle to provide for children...
Every time my husband heard of a factory closing in Ohio, or North Carolina or here in Pennsylvania, I saw my husband get very upset.
Melania Trump recalls being inspired by Reagan
Trump continues:
I come here today to talk about my husband Donald, and his deep love and respect for this country and all its people... to talk about our partnership, our family and what I know for sure in my heart about this man who will make America great again.
I grew upin a small town in Slovenia near beautiful river and forests... it was a beautiful childhood. My parents were wonderful...
America meant, if you could dream it, you could become it.
When I was ten years old, we heard that a man named Ronald Reagan was elected president... it began to feel like morning around the world, even in my small country. It was a true inspiration for me.
...
Fashion is a business of glamour, but it is also hard work.
Melania Trump is recalling the June 2015 day Trump announced his bid.
“Donald promised to campaign on behalf of those who feel the esystem is broken... who just want a fair shake... and opportunity for a better future.
“He pledged to restore integrity to Washington and respect for America abroad,” Trump says.
No he didn’t. He said Mexicans were bringing drugs and called them criminas and rapists.
“Thank you first lady of Indiana Karen Pence,” Melania Trump says.
“We love you,” the crowd shouts.
“We love you too,” Melania replies.
Karen Pence concludes her introduction:
She is amazing. Let me tell you a little bit about her... the first time I met Melania... we joined them for a weekend at their resort in Bedminster [New Jersey]... I told her with a wink that we have raised three independently thinking children who don’t always agree with their father... she looked at me with her warm smile, and she said, I like that. You’re teaching them to think for themselves. I like that.
“And I knew right then that I was really going to enjoy meeting Melania.
“I can tell you one thing about Melania Trump. She is strong. She is so strong. She also is very accomplished, working her way up...
Karen Pence, the wife of Trump’s running mate, is introducing Melania Trump in Pennsylvania:
'The FBI is Trumpland'
Deep antipathy to Hillary Clinton exists within the FBI, multiple bureau sources have told the Guardian, spurring a rapid series of leaks damaging to her campaign just days before the election.
Current and former FBI officials, none of whom were willing or cleared to speak on the record, have described a chaotic internal climate that resulted from outrage over director James Comey’s July decision not to recommend an indictment over Clinton’s maintenance of a private email server on which classified information transited.
“The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.
This atmosphere raises major questions about how Comey and the bureau he is slated to run for the next seven years can work with Clinton should she win the White House.
The currently serving FBI agent said Clinton is “the antichrist personified to a large swath of FBI personnel,” and that “the reason why they’re leaking is they’re pro-Trump.”
The agent called the bureau “Trumplandia,” with some colleagues openly discussing voting for a GOP nominee who has garnered unprecedented condemnation from the party’s national security wing and who has pledged to jail Clinton if elected.
At the same time, other sources dispute the depth of support for Trump within the bureau, though they uniformly stated that Clinton is viewed highly unfavorably.
“There are lots of people who don’t think Trump is qualified, but also believe Clinton is corrupt. What you hear a lot is that it’s a bad choice, between an incompetent and a corrupt politician,” said a former FBI official.
Read further:
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is in Concord, North Carolina, waiting for Trump. But the candidate won’t come out, reportedly, until he’s watched his wife’s speech in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t started yet.
Which means more time for Ben to meet the crowd:
This is a look pic.twitter.com/p5M4r4I5Ge
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) November 3, 2016
What does Donald Trump mean for Canada?
Kellyanne Conway just did a gaggle at Melania event. Star was Canadian reporter who asked about 11 Qs how what Trump means for Canadians.
— E McMorris-Santoro (@EvanMcS) November 3, 2016
That’s a margin of two votes – not two points, two votes – from a sample of likely voters surveyed by Suffolk in New Hampshire:
Close in NH. https://t.co/gZHsfoH2SR pic.twitter.com/uCSjGu0ivB
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2016
Polling averages have Clinton up about five points in New Hampshire. But multiple polls today have shown Trump tied or slightly ahead of her in the state. New Hampshire does not have significant early voting. Barack Obama is headed there on Monday.
Probably not (see NV early vote)... but looks a heck more possible than 24 hours ago. pic.twitter.com/BECLVeR1mj
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2016
Updated
Trump's missing white voters... still missing
An analysis by the New York Times and Siena college pollsters of white voters and potential white voters in North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania concludes that the wave of newly active white voters that would be required to carry Trump to victory – barring an expansion of Trump’s appeal with other groups – does not exist:
Mr. Trump may yet win this election. But if he does, it probably won’t be because of a huge influx of Republican-leaning “missing” voters.
There has been no surge in registration among white voters since 2012, and the white voters who have joined the electorate are younger and likelier to support Mrs. Clinton than those who were already registered. [...]
Important for understanding voter reg trends: Clinton has a 42-21 lead among new unaffiliated voters in PA/FL/NC https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2016
This year, Mr. Trump’s gains among missing white voters aren’t likely to be even enough to overcome four years of demographic shifts, let alone form the basis of a lasting political coalition.
These findings are based on an Upshot analysis of voter registration data nationwide, as well as Upshot/Siena College polls of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Read further. Separate polling and analysis by Bloomberg indicates that Trump could be en route to a historic loss among college-educated white voters:
Donald Trump is on track to become the first Republican to lose college-educated white voters since at least 1956. https://t.co/gUsaTt02OD
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 3, 2016
ABC News/WaPo polling agrees:
In latest ABC/WP @HillaryClinton 22 points better w/col than non-col whites - biggest previous gap for a Dem: +7
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) November 3, 2016
Updated
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is in Concord, North Carolina, for Trump’s first afternoon event:
Spotted outside today's Trump rally in Concord, NC pic.twitter.com/MpR0q4ISoc
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) November 3, 2016
Here’s a live stream on the Melania Trump event in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, where the crowd is currently staring at an empty stage. It’s not scheduled to start for 20 minutes:
We can’t wait to show you the futuristic interactive graphics we’ve built to bring you all the election night returns. It’s even more futuristic that this:
LBJ watching election returns, tonight 1964: #LBJL pic.twitter.com/OYd5t3oliB
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) November 3, 2016
Election Night '72 graphics fail pic.twitter.com/kUqk73TCif
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) November 3, 2016
The Nevada early vote continues to look good for Clinton, says Silver state journalism dean Jon Ralston:
Again, Clinton can afford to lose NH if she wins NV... From the master @ralstonreports https://t.co/n0CHAXFasC pic.twitter.com/nidqbwms6d
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2016
Another possible map:
But if she loses Colorado...
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have new campaign ads out – very different campaign ads:
Trump’s done in Jacksonville. His next stop today is in North Carolina.
Utah appears still to be anyone’s game, a new Monmouth University poll of the state indicates:
New Utah poll from Monmouth:
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) November 3, 2016
Trump: 37%
Clinton: 31%
McMullin: 24%
Johnson: 4%
ABC News catches Texas senator Ted Cruz introducing Trump running mate Mike Pence in Prole, Iowa:
Ted Cruz introduces Pence: "He is someone who today I call my friend, and I very much look forward to calling him Mr. Vice President" pic.twitter.com/9PqvFQ88mC
— Ines de La Cuetara (@InesdLC) November 3, 2016
Pence’s schedule has him at Melania Trump’s speech in Pennsylvania later this afternoon.
The crowd is settling in in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, for Melania Trump’s speech.
(Trump is still talking in Jacksonville.)
Woman walks up to press pen at Melania rally to inform us that she is an "educated professional woman” who is voting for Trump.
— Eliot Nelson (@eliotnelson) November 3, 2016
This has been recurring thing. Trump voters with degrees tell me they're upset about phenomenon being characterized as low ed vs high ed. https://t.co/66D2T85mFP
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 3, 2016
Latino vote will grow 3-5% from 2012: estimate
Latino Decisions projects that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016:
This estimate represents a three percent to five percent increase over the 2012 Latino turnout rate which, coupled with the dramatic growth of the age-eligible Latino population, will yield between 1.9 million and 3.5 million additional Latinos voters in 2016 compared to the 11.2 million who voted four years ago.
Latino Decisions also projects that 79 percent of Latinos will vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 18 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the remaining three percent voting for other candidates. Clinton’s projected share is higher than both Latino Decisions’ estimated 75 percent Latino vote share and 71 percent exit poll share Democrat Barack Obama received during his 2012 re-election bid.
LD statistical model projecting voter turnout by Prof. @justinhgross forecasts 13.1-14.7 million Latino votes cast, up from 11.2M in 2012 pic.twitter.com/LyxQ9MPHXK
— Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) November 2, 2016
(h/t @lmechegray)
Trump accuses Obama of having a conflict of interest in campaigning for Clinton:
I just left by the way Miami. And in leaving I saw AF1. And I said to myself, I wonder who that could be. And it’s our president, and he’s down here campaigning for Crooked Hillary. Why isn’t he back in the office, sometimes referred to as the Oval Office... he’s campaigning every day, and I actually think, considering that she’s under criminal investigation, I think he’s got a conflict.
Clinton is not under any criminal investigation that has been announced.
Who in this room has gotten rid of a phone, and then smashed the hell out of it with a hammer? Raise your hand. I see one hand over there. What business are you in? I don’t want to know. I don’t want to know.
– Donald Trump, in Jacksonville
Here’s Donald Trump now, speaking in Jacksonville, Florida (where Obama is headed later today).
Trump is saying that Hillary Clinton is a criminal and “she should’t be allowed to run for the office of president, and that is where the system is rigged”:
Wow, Bill Clinton was up very early this morning in Michigan:
Pres @billclinton makes an early stop in Detroit's Eastern Market to meet some voters, grab a coffee & check out the street art. #MISheCan pic.twitter.com/SVYcjqfgm9
— Jon Davidson (@JonDavidson_) November 3, 2016
“If we win Florida,” Obama concludes, “we will win this election.”
2016 Florida President - Clinton 49%, Trump 45% (Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/Fox 35 11/1-11/2) https://t.co/Ra8JEAacGB pic.twitter.com/yjyUYwaQ6g
— HuffPost Pollster (@pollsterpolls) November 3, 2016
Of course, Clinton could just win Florida and make all this NH/NV talk meaningless https://t.co/FIaW8iapf0
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2016
The president is done in Miami. Next stop: Jacksonville, on the northeastern coast.
Obama to 'young voters': 'you have a chance to move history'
Obama closes with an appeal to young voters to reject political cynicism. “Right now you have a chance to move history in a better direction,” he says. “I want young people to understand, those moments don’t come that often. There are times when history is movable, when you can make things better or worse. This is one of those moments.”
Obama defends Obamacare
Obama takes a moment to note the news of rising premiums for some Obamacare enrollees. He mounts a defense of the health care law that culminates with an accusation that Republicans have no replacement plan.
“I’m going to take another aside. I know I’m running long. We have given – 20m people have health insurance that didn’t have it before,” Obama says. Then he notes Trump’s news conference to criticize Obamacare in Valley Forge, PA at the start of the week.
Obama notes Ben Carson was there – and Carson is booed.
“Who’s an excellent neurosurgeon. He really is. I don’t know what happened on the political thing,” Obama says.
Then he says that rising premiums could’ve been kept down if Republicans would’ve helped:
It is true, premiums are going up for a handful of people who don’t get tax credits, that’s important... the reason I point this out was, you watch the press conference and what you realize is, they got no plan. They want to repeal because ideologically they’re opposed to those 20m people getting health insurance.
Then Obama busts out the thesaurus. Republicans don’t have a semblance of a plan, not even a hint, he says. Not even a mote.
Obama hits Marco Rubio for voting for Trump, after the senator once tweeted, “friends don’t let friends vote Trump.”
“Obviously he didn’t have good enough friends,” the president quips. The Miami crowd enjoyed the line.
This is only the first of two Obama speeches on Clinton’s behalf today. The president has additional campaign events right through to election day. Is the president spending too much time on the campaign trail?
Donald Trump thinks so:
Looking at Air Force One @ MIA. Why is he campaigning instead of creating jobs & fixing Obamacare? Get back to work for the American people!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2016
At which the Clinton campaign points out:
Good time for this reminder.
— Jesse Ferguson (@JesseFFerguson) November 3, 2016
There is no former President - either of Donald's party or Hillary's - who thinks Donald Trump should be POTUS https://t.co/DFcC0hFVn2
Obama says Trump has 'twisted notions'
Obama says that core biases that presidential candidates might have – not naming names – would not change with elevation to the Oval office “except you will have more power to carry out the twisted notions you had before you were in office.”
“This isn’t a joke,” the president says. “This isn’t Survivor. This isn’t the Bachelorette. This counts.”
Updated
Our culture, our media has just gotten so, reality-TV-ized. I know that’s not a word. But you get my drift.
– Obama in Miami
Obamas to join Clintons in Philadelphia on eve of election
If Clinton ends up losing Pennsylvania (where a super-fresh Ipsos poll has her up six points), it won’t be for lack of focus on the Keystone state. The campaign has announced that its grand finale event, on the night before the election, will happen in Philadelphia, and will feature the candidate, her husband, the president, his wife, and Chelsea Clinton:
The big finale: On Monday, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and Chelsea Clinton will have a rally in Philly.
— MJ Lee (@mj_lee) November 3, 2016
Trump meanwhile announced Wednesday night that his “victory party” Tuesday night would be invitation-only at the New York Hilton Midtown:
Trump camp announces the crowd at his NYC Election Night event will be by "invitation-only" pic.twitter.com/5lNywjXvKa
— Sarah Boxer (@Sarah_Boxer) November 3, 2016
Barack Obama is onstage in Miami. That was punctual!
Melania Trump excerpts: 'no plagiarism detected'
We’re run the excerpts of Melania Trump’s upcoming speech through a plagiarism detector – try it yourself at quetext.com! – and it says “no plagiarism detected”.
(h/t @paultowen)
Melania Trump speech - "no plagiarism detected" pic.twitter.com/7iePxD3Zd4
— Paul Owen (@PaulTOwen) November 3, 2016
Updated
Melania Trump to express hope for children 'to dream freely of love'
We know, we’re treating this like it was the state of the union. With half-apologies, we append herewith advance excerpts of Melania Trump’s speech today, as prepared for delivery and released just now by the Trump campaign:
I come here today to talk about my husband Donald and his deep love and respect for this country, and all of its people.
I have come here to talk about this man I have known for 18 years. And I have come here today to talk about our partnership, our family, and what I know for sure in my heart, about this man, who will Make America Great Again.
People have asked me, if Donald is the President, what kind of First Lady will you be? [...]
I want our children in this country, and all around the world, to live a beautiful life, to be safe and secure.
To dream freely of love and a family of their own someday.
We need to teach our youth American values. Kindness, respect, compassion, charity, understanding, cooperation.
Trump to self: 'Stay on point, Donald'
Ever wonder what Donald Trump’s interior monologue sounds like?
(...)
You’re in luck, because for a few eerie moments in Pensacola, Florida, last night, he vocalized it.
Right now his interior monologue is telling Trump to “stay on point, Donald, stay on point... no sidetracks... nice and easy...”
2016. pic.twitter.com/T0lX0lKtJS
— Scott Bixby (@scottbix) November 3, 2016
(and #ff @scottbix)
Philadelphia Democrats are seeing the Republicans’ Melania Trump and raising them Cyndi Lauper and Debra Messing.
Lauper, the pop star, and Messing, the Will & Grace star, will join former Philly mayor and Pa governor Ed Rendell, and current senate candidate Katie McGinty, for a “gayborhood bar crawl,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:
Organized by the Liberty City LGBT Democratic Club, the get-out-the-vote “LCDC Bar Tour” will begin at 9 p.m at Knock (225 S. 12th St.), with the group then moving on to Tabu (200 S. 12th St.), UBar (1220 Locust St.), Tavern on Camac (243 S. Camac St.), Woody’s (202 S. 13th St.), and Boxers (1330 Walnut St.), according to a Facebook posting.
The bar crawl is free to attend and is pay-as-you-go, but organizers ask that those interested in attending RSVP online.
Here’s the original studio version of All Through the Night by the guy who wrote it, Jules Shear, who toured with Lauper and sings backup on her version:
(h/t @bencjacobs)
The head of Nascar, the national stock-car racing association, endorsed Donald Trump way back in March. Now the track is getting its first Trump-branded car, Jalopnik reports:
NASCAR driver Reed Sorenson will have Trump/Pence branding for Texas Sprint Cup race this weekend. https://t.co/axDmvsgWQI pic.twitter.com/9er2KaN0aR
— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) November 3, 2016
Nascar faced a backlash from fans last year when it asked them to stop flying Confederate flags following a mass shooting at a historic black church in Charleston, South Carolina. The Nascar hall of fame is in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Pennsylvania state Democratic party has just mailed reporters an “EXCLUSIVE: ADVANCE EXCERPTS OF MELANIA TRUMP’S CHESTER COUNTY SPEECH”:
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party has obtained an advance copy of the speech Melania Trump is scheduled to deliver today in Chester County.
The press release links to a speech delivered last month by first lady Michelle Obama in New Hampshire.
Get it!
Melania Trump is to speak in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, this afternoon. That’s in Chester county, one of the Philadelphia ring counties, won by Mitt Romney in 2012 by a mere 0.5% – on Tuesday, watch whether Trump can top that margin. If Clinton wins Chester, it’s a good sign for the Dems.
Trump will be watching his wife’s speech remotely:
My wife, Melania, will be speaking in Pennsylvania this afternoon. So exciting, big crowds! I will be watching from North Carolina.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2016
(h/t @bencjacobs)
Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Melania Trump is scheduled to give her first campaign speech since the Republican convention today, addressing an afternoon crowd in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. She will talk “about her real American story as well as the kind of dedicated, strong and committed First Lady she will be for the country she loves so much”, the Trump campaign said.
Competing with Mrs Trump on the campaign trail will be American president Barack Obama, who is to deliver two speeches today in Florida for Hillary Clinton. Clinton has a campaign event today in Raleigh, North Carolina, with Bernie Sanders and Pharrell Williams. Tim Kaine’s in Arizona today.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has four three stops scheduled in two states – Florida and North Carolina and Pennsylvania (Trump will not attend his wife’s speech in Pennsylvania, as this post originally indicated). Mike Pence is also visiting three states: Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
McConnell calls for ‘powerful’ president Trump
“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made his strongest statement yet on his party’s presidential nominee, telling a rally in his home state Wednesday that ‘we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,’” AP reports:
Since endorsing Trump shortly after he secured the nomination, McConnell has been mostly silent about the nominee so that vulnerable incumbents – like New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte – could distance themselves from Trump and his increasingly erratic comments.
But speaking in a cavernous tractor dealership in central Kentucky on Wednesday night – where McConnell was introduced as the “most powerful Republican in the world” – the senator went all in for Trump before a small but enthusiastic crowd.
“If America votes like Kentucky, we’ll be fine,” McConnell said.
Somebody is launching a ‘conservative media network’ – Fox
Here’s Fox News, reporting on a potential new competitor:
Donald Trump denies he is interested in launching a new conservative news venture, but somebody sure is.
What’s being billed as an “up-and-coming conservative media network currently in development” is now scouring for hosts, reporters and right-leaning, well-spoken panelists, according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News. [...]
Auditions are being held at an undisclosed New York City studio on Nov. 7, the eve of Election Day.
Good New Hampshire poll for Trump
A new WBUR poll of New Hampshire has Trump up one in the Granite state, 40-39, with Independent candidate Gary Johnson playing a major spoiler role – for someone – by drawing 10%. HuffPost Pollster’s average has Clinton up five in the state.
Clinton can trade Nevada for NH. But she's probably got to win one. Good poll this morning from NH has Trump +1 https://t.co/DYpoD08ZLs
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2016
The poll has Democrat Maggie Hassan ahead of incumbent Kelly Ayotte in the Senate race by four points, 45-41.
If you like horse races, you might have a glance at the latest edition of the ABC/WaPo tracking blog, which has moved three points in Clinton’s direction since Monday. Behold – the highs, the lows, the agony, the ecstasy – the irreplicable pleasures of a daily tracking poll:
Clinton inches ahead, with enthusiasm back on par with Trump, Post-ABC Tracking poll findshttps://t.co/ncB9Ry6F4V
— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 3, 2016
The Cubs won
No self-respecting politician let the Chicago Cubs’ World Series victory overnight go uncelebrated. Clinton, who grew up in Chicago and has a particular claim to actual fandom, was effusive:
They did it! 108 years later and the drought is finally over. Way to make history, @Cubs. #FlyTheW -H
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 3, 2016
The president, also a Chicagoan, but a fan of the rival White Sox, invited the team to the White House:
It happened: @Cubs win World Series. That's change even this South Sider can believe in. Want to come to the White House before I leave?
— President Obama (@POTUS) November 3, 2016
Nothing yet from team Trump on the Cubs. Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments.
We asked @SaraBareilles to imagine what Obama might be thinking about this election and Trump. She wrote this song. @leslieodomjr sings. pic.twitter.com/0uAI37qlZS
— This American Life (@ThisAmerLife) October 28, 2016
Updated
