First, this will be a two-part series. We’ll get to ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s best calls soon.
For now, we’ll look at some of his major misses.
Russell Wilson
Kiper: “I think he’ll have a Seneca Wallace-type career where you can bring him off the bench and he’ll add a spark.”
Um, nope. Wilson, drafted in the third round by Seattle, 75th overall, has been named to seven Pro Bowls and has started in two Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl XLVIII.
Richard Sherman
Kiper: “Just an average fifth-round pick, in my opinion.”
No, again. And yes, the Seahawks again. Drafted out of Stanford in the fifth round in 2011, Sherman has been named to the Pro Bowl five times and voted first-team All-Pro three times. He led the NFL in interceptions in 2013 with eight, when he also helped the Seahawks win their first Super Bowl.
David Carr and Joey Harrington
Grouping these two quarterbacks together because in the 2002 NFL Draft Carr was the No. 1 overall pick by the Houston Texans and Harrington was selected No. 3 overall by the Detroit Lions. Kiper Jr. liked them both, saying this:
“I think when you look at Carr and Harrington, three or four years down the road, you’re not going to call any one of these two players a bust or a disappointment.”
Yeah, no. Neither Carr nor Harrington were ever more than replacement-level players.
Andre Wadsworth
Wadsworth, an All-American defensive end at Florida State, was No. 1 on Kiper’s big board before the 1998 draft, and Kiper thought Wadsworth might be the next Bruce Smith, the Buffalo Bills legend and the NFL’s all-time sack leader.
“Andre Wadsworth could be the next Bruce Smith. I compare (him) to Smith in terms of his natural instincts and athleticism, getting after the quarterback.”
Wadsworth, drafted third overall, played just three seasons with the Arizona Cardinals and recorded a total of eight sacks.
Mike Williams
Kiper Jr. was so gung-ho on the All-American receiver from USC, who the Lions drafted 10th overall, that he told former ESPN analyst Merril Hoge:
“I’ll see you at (Williams’) Hall of Fame induction.”
Yowza.
Ask Lions fans how that worked out. Williams did have a nice career resurgence for the Seahawks in 2010 and 2011 under Pete Carroll, his college coach, but he was also one of former Lions general manager Matt Millen’s biggest whiffs — and that’s saying a lot. Selected 10th overall in the 2005 draft, Williams caught just 37 passes for 449 yards and two touchdowns with Detroit, and he was out of football entirely for a time before his reunion with Carroll.
JaMarcus Russell
The first overall pick by the Raiders in the 2007 Draft, Russell played only three seasons with the Raiders. He had a 7–18 record as the starting QB and threw just 18 touchdowns compared to his 38 turnovers.
Not good.
But before the Draft, Kiper thought he could be the next John Elway.
“Three years from now you could certainly be looking at one of the elite, top-five (NFL) quarterbacks. Look out, because the skill-level he has is certainly John Elway-like.”
Sheesh. But in fairness, most everyone believed Russell looked like a franchise quarterback.
He was nothing close to that. In three seasons with the Raiders, Russell completed 52.1% of his passes and threw 18 touchdowns to 23 interceptions.
Brady Quinn
Kiper believed the Lions should have taken Notre Dame star QB Quinn, who wound up going No. 22 overall to the Browns — Cleveland and its signal-callers, man, oh, man — but Detroit rocked the No. 2 overall pick by taking Calvin Johnson. Megatron. So the Lions haven’t always blown it on Draft day.
