Medpace stock tumbled to a 17-month low Tuesday after lighter-than-expected bookings in the March quarter "cast more doubt on the path forward," an analyst said.
In the first quarter, Medpace Holdings booked $500 million in net new business, missing expectations for the fifth consecutive quarter, William Blair analyst Max Smock said in a report. He called for $548 million in net bookings, while analysts polled by FactSet projected $557.3 million, on average.
New bookings slumped nearly 19% year over year and added onto a four-quarter trend of sequential declines. Medpace's book-to-bill ratio came in at 0.9 times, lagging Smock's view for 1.03 times.
"Unfortunately, there was no detail in the company's press release or accompanying earnings deck about the demand environment and the reason for the sequential decline in bookings in the first quarter, leaving us to wonder whether elevated cancellations, lower growth bookings, or a mix of both factors were to blame," Smock said.
Medpace stock toppled 2.3%, closing at 282.28. That pared a steeper loss in earlier action when Medpace shares fell as much as 13.5% and touched their lowest point since November 2023.
Medpace Stock: Top- And Bottom-Line Beat
The top- and bottom-line were more promising for Medpace, however.
The contract research organization, or CRO, helps companies run the clinical testing they need to win approval or clearance for new drugs and medical devices. During the first quarter, Medpace earned an adjusted $3.67 per share, rising nearly 15% and beating calls for $3.06, according to FactSet. Sales grew more than 9% to $558.6 million. Analysts called for $526.3 million in sales.
Medpace also raised its 2025 sales outlook by $30 million and boosted its adjusted earnings per share view by 34 cents at the midpoint. Now the company projects $2.14 billion to $2.24 billion in sales and earnings of $12.26 to $13.04 per share.
William Blair's Smock kept his outperform rating on Medpace stock.
"The bookings miss and any changes to management's previously stated expectations for book-to-bill to rebound to above 1.15 times by the second half of this year will get the majority of attention during Tuesday's call, as will commentary about customer sentiment and leading demand indicators that could help cast some light on whether the company can drive improved top-line performance in 2026," he said.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.
