McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) could serve as a barometer for consumer spending when the fast-food giant reports second-quarter results before the market opens Wednesday.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect McDonald's to report Q2 revenue of $6.68 billion, up from $6.49 billion from last year's second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has missed analyst revenue estimates for two consecutive quarters. It also beat analyst estimates for revenue in six of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect McDonald's to report second-quarter earnings per share of $3.14, up from $2.97 in last year's second quarter.
McDonald’s beat Street estimates in the first quarter. It also beat analyst estimates for earnings in eight of the last 10 quarters overall.
What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts remain mixed on McDonald's ahead of the company’s earnings report.
The restaurant company was the subject of a double downgrade from Redburn Atlantic recently. Analyst Chris Luyckx downgraded the stock from Buy to sell.
Luyckx's downgrade centers on the growth of weight-loss drugs and their impact on suppressed appetites, leading to fewer trips to restaurants.
The analyst said weight-loss drugs could cause a demand shock for restaurants reliant on frequent visits and large group orders.
Quantifying the impact, Luyckx said McDonald's could lose 28 million annual visits and $481.5 million in revenue, or 0.9% of the company's annual systemwide sales.
"A 1% drag today could easily build to 10% or more over time, particularly for brands skewed towards lower-income consumers or group occasions," Luyckx said.
The analyst said outside of the weight-loss drugs, McDonald's is already seeing soft traffic and a growing concern over value perception.
Here are other recent analyst ratings on McDonald's and their price targets:
- Bank of America: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $327 to $322
- Morgan Stanley: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $324 to $326
- Goldman Sachs: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with $345 price target
- Citigroup: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $364 to $365
Key Items to Watch: As one of the largest fast food companies in the world and the subject of frequent visits by Americans, McDonald's could provide a look at how much consumers are dining out and if they are worried about prices.
A Placer.ai report said McDonald's had visitor growth of 0.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to a decline of 0.7% for the overall quick service restaurant sector. This includes gains of 3.6% and 0.1% year-over-year in April and May respectively, with a decline of 1.2% year-over-year in June.
The overall QSR sector had declines of 1.2%, 0.1% and 0.7% respectively on a year-over-year basis for the months of April, May and June.
Another item to watch from the Placer.ai report is unit expansion with plans to open 900 U.S. locations by 2027. Calling the item "A McPocket of Growth," Placer.ai highlights McDonald's seeing strong same-store visit growth in parts of the country like the Western states and Southwest region that could suggest room for more restaurants in those locations.
While new menu items might not impact the second-quarter results as much as the second half of the fiscal year, investors and analysts likely want to hear more about the company's plans to add more beverage options in some stores.
Analysts also anticipate commentary on the return of the Snack Wrap on July 10. Reports indicated that the relaunch was well received, resulting in increased visits and sales at the locations. This could factor into any future guidance provided by the company and be a potential boost for the share price.
MCD Price Action: McDonald's stock trades at $299.92 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $265.33 to $326.32. McDonald's stock is up 2.5% year-to-date in 2025.
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