Many will be baffled by the latest cabinet row over Brexit, pitched as the most damaging yet for Theresa May. This particular showdown, however, is significant.
First, because Brexiters fear that if David Davis fails to get his way, the UK could be permanently tied to the European Union even after it formally leaves. Second, because if the Brexit secretary walks, it could bring down the prime minister.
Britain signed up to the idea of a backstop option to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland in the deal reached with the 27 EU members states in December. No 10 has said consistently it is just a fall-back option, and it hopes to agree a different customs solution with Brussels – either the “max-fac” option or a new customs partnership. It has also maintained that if the backstop was implemented it would only be temporary until a permanent solution to the border problem could be found.
But with the cabinet still divided over which of its two customs options it might go for, the EU sceptical about both, and time running out, it looks increasingly as if the backstop is the only workable option still on the table. May rejected a draft presented by Brussels that would in effect keep Northern Ireland in the single market, saying that no UK prime minister could ever agree to what would effectivelybe a customs border in the Irish Sea. The only other option was to agree alignment across the whole UK, which she has ruled out.
Since then, the EU27 has been waiting for the government to publish its alternative draft backstop proposal, which is expected to include all of the UK temporarily applying the EU’s external tariff and remaining aligned to single market rules for goods until a new customs relationship is in place. This would remove the problem of treating Northern Ireland differently from mainland Britain.
Yet despite insisting it would be time limited – and Davis persuading his fellow cabinet Brexiters to sign up to it on that basis – No 10’s detailed plan contains no legally enforceable end date, leading to fears among the leavers that Britain would be tied to EU rules indefinitely. They are concerned it would mean the UK sacrificing negotiating leverage, as well as limiting the ability of the trade secretary, Liam Fox, to strike new deals with non-EU countries.
So while on one hand May has Davis and the Brexiters agitating for a specific time constraint, on the other she has Brussels, which has made it clear that it will not accept a time-limited plan, which it has interpreted as an attempt to renegotiate the transition period. Between a rock and a hard place, the prime minister nevertheless feels there is no point putting a plan to Brussels that would be rejected immediately.
As ever, it will come down to who blinks first. Davis is also frustrated with the slow pace of Brexit more generally, the delay of his white paper on the government’s detailed plans until after the crucial Brussels summit later this month, and the government’s failure to agree a customs arrangement. He also feels overlooked in favour of May’s top Brexit civil servant, Olly Robbins. There is the possibility that No 10 will try to mollify him by addressing some of his other concerns instead.
Davis, of course, has a history of dramatic departures. Next week it will be 10 years since he walked out of David Cameron’s shadow cabinet over civil liberties. More recently, he apparently threatened to quit in April after feeling sidelined by Robbins. But he also has a reputation as the prime minister’s most loyal Brexiter – he refers to her as “the boss”. Tellingly, on Wednesday he arranged a meeting with Brussels’ chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, for next Monday. Some MPs believe the lifelong Brexiter will stay put, believing this was the job he came into politics to do.
If he does decide to go, May’s premiership could be mortally wounded. While some MPs admit to not being across the complexities of Brexit, the public can’t fail to sit up and take notice if the Brexit secretary resigns because he fears the UK will be tied indefinitely to the EU. Although she has withstood the departures of Amber Rudd, Damian Green and others, May would struggle to survive the resignation of such a big beast, responsible for delivering the defining issue of her premiership. She could well opt to kick the can down the road yet again and deal with the problem on her return from the G7.
