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Matt Calkins

Matt Calkins: Expect Russell Wilson to be back with the Seahawks next season. But after that ...

SEATTLE — It's social-media season in the NFL, when rumors and speculation flood the common football fan's timeline.

What the future holds for teams and some of the game's top players is a regular point of discussion.

And it wouldn't be an offseason in Seattle if stories about Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson being on the trade market didn't pop up from time to time. After Wednesday, however, you're unlikely to see many — or any — more of those.

Speaking from the NFL combine in Indianapolis, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll gave as close to a definitive answer as possible when asked about Wilson's immediate future in Seattle. He told reporters that though general manager John Schneider does field calls from teams about Wilson, he always responds with, "We're not shopping the quarterback."

That's likely comforting for most fans of the Seahawks, who know a signal caller of Wilson's caliber has been unmatched in franchise history. But personally, I never thought the story was about whether Wilson will be in Seattle next season — it's about whether he will be in Seattle in his final season.

Next season may very well decide whether No. 3 will end up in the Emerald City for the long haul. His performance might determine whether the Seahawks want to sign him to an extension (one that could again make him the highest-paid QB in the league) — and the team's performance may determine whether he wants to sign one.

Wilson has said multiple times that he wants three more Super Bowl titles and needs to know that the Seahawks are doing whatever they can to win. Of course, him playing well is the most instrumental factor in their success.

I'm still not sure Wilson has pieced together that signature season many fans and pundits figure he is capable of. He was a key — and maybe even underrated — asset in the team's Super Bowl years, but wasn't thought of as the primary reason for Seattle capturing the Lombardi Trophy.

He has been brilliant in stretches since, particularly in the first halves of the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and the first few games of 2021. But that complete year that we've seen from the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes? Not so much.

This has to be frustrating for the hypercompetitive Wilson, who surely desires to be known as one of the best to ever play. He wants four titles. He's said he wants to be the league MVP. He may not grill his detractors publicly, he may not lash out on Twitter — but when ESPN analyst Ryan Clark says Wilson is "not an all-time great" and will never be in the conversations of an all-time great, it's gotta burn.

Wilson's inconsistency over the past few years — not to mention health issues — are partly to blame for such a comment from Clark. But you need support to win, something Rams QB Matthew Stafford reminded us of as soon as he left Detroit.

Wilson has been loyal to the Seahawks, who have contended for most of his career. But his desire to catapult into those all-time-great conversations would likely outweigh such loyalty in the future.

So can the Seahawks compete next season after going 7-10 last season? You know Carroll isn't going to be anything less than off-the-charts optimistic. You could hear the pain in his voice when he discussed all the close games the Seahawks lost last season — but emphasized that almost every "L" came down to the end (Seattle had a plus-29 scoring differential last season).

But optimism takes you only so far. You need players. And that's where things might get a little dicey for the Seahawks.

Chris Carson, their starting running back at the beginning of last season, suffered a neck injury that he might not bounce back from. Rashaad Penny, their starting running back at the end of last season, is a free agent whose value skyrocketed over the final few games.

Bobby Wagner, the eight-time Pro Bowl linebacker, is another year older and extremely costly on his current contract. And after trading for safety Jamal Adams, who has struggled with health and pass coverage, the Seahawks are short on draft capital.

Wilson is going to be back in Seattle next season. Fans don't have to worry about that. But if it doesn't go well, then they can start to wonder.

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