News of the mass fish kill in far-west New South Wales last week feels like political deja vu.
There were similar scenes in the lead up to the last state election that helped the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) candidate Roy Butler win the seat of Barwon, after 70 years of National Party domination.
In 2019, rotting fish reinforced widespread concerns about water management, in a drought that had seen farmers on their knees and communities at their wits' end.
"People were sick of being ignored," said Mr Butler, who has since quit the SFF become an independent.
"We had a government at the time that ignored the fact that communities were running out of drinking water.
"People were taking box trailers of drinking water into [communities] because the groundwater was unpalatable."
This time around the Nationals have been pouring their own resources into Barwon trying to win it back.
Candidate Annette Turner has spent months traversing the huge electorate flanked by some of the party's star power, including federal MP Barnaby Joyce.
The party hopes her profile as a former Country Women's Association state president will help her claw back the 18 per cent swing against the Nationals in Barwon.
"The CWA are the mafia of regional NSW and if you need star power, then this is the lady you need to talk to," Mr Joyce said.
Though recent flooding has caused more pain in the state's west, it has also filled dams and the agricultural economy has came roaring back.
And Ms Turner said it was the Coalition that should be getting the credit.
"I think that it's been very lucky that the Coalition [government] has supported the people of Barwon by putting in infrastructure," she said.
"People need to realise that … the National Party and the Liberals are doing this and [Barwon] shouldn't miss out any longer."
Has voters' anger dissipated?
Mr Butler was bemused by those claims and argued voters in Barwon had been well served by an independent, especially after the after the Coalition was plunged into a minority government in 2021.
"I've been able to approach ministers and put proposals to them for capital expenditure," Mr Butler said.
"They haven't made me jump through hoops. They just say, 'Yeah, okay, give me the quote, we'll do it.'"
But it does seem that voters' anger, which was at fever pitch last election, has dissipated this time around.
Co-founder of the now-defunct "Anyone but Nats" party, Rohan Boehm, said the group had largely moved on as the mood had changed
"It's pretty much had its day and a lot of people in politics often don't know when to give up," he said.
The political group's website has been taken down and the last post on their Facebook page was in February 2022.
The seat's biggest centre, Broken Hill, was historically a strong bastion for the Labor vote, but strongly rewarded Mr Butler at the last election.
There, Broken Hill Labor councillor and former mayor Darriea Turley also thinks the political tide could be turning in the region.
"I think it's a two-horse race between the Nationals and the incumbent and I'm not writing anyone off at the moment," she said.
And it looks like the bookies agree
Betting odds favour Mr Butler to keep the seat, but the National Party's chance of reclaiming it has improved from $6 just a few months ago to $3.50.
