The Cavaliers' personnel decisions in the next four months can't be driven merely by fine-tuning a roster to beat the champion Golden State Warriors.
They must also be mindful of the fact that LeBron James could leave Cleveland for the second time after next season.
James, 32, needs more help _ especially from an aging and embarrassingly underperforming bench _ in the wake of the Cavs' elimination in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The Golden State Warriors captured the title for the second time in three seasons and show no signs of that run ending, with Finals Most Valuable Player Kevin Durant among those willing to take less money for the chance to earn more rings.
The Cavs can't afford to stand pat and convince James to stay long term, which might cost owner Dan Gilbert even more than the league-record $128 million he doled out in salaries this season. A year ago in winning the title, the Cavs' payroll was $107 million, with another $54 million paid in luxury tax. Gilbert lost money, according to Forbes.
Next season the Cavs will be subject to the repeater tax, meaning $1 in salary isn't $1, but more like $3 or $4 for the most serious salary cap-bashers. That could spell a breakup for James and James Jones, who have gone to seven consecutive Finals together. Even the league minimum won't be the minimum for the wine and gold.
The fact that James is unlikely to state his future intentions could scuttle a potential Paul George-for-Kevin Love trade even before it even gets off the ground. If the Cavs covet the Pacers' George, who has one year left on his contract, the Cavs would want George to sign an extension to make the deal. He won't do that without an assurance from James that they'll be teammates for more than one season. It seems hard to believe James would make such a commitment so far ahead of the date when he can hit free agency again.
I'm skeptical that the Pacers would trade George to the Cavs, anyway, considering the Cavs are standing in the Pacers' way of an Eastern Conference championship as long as James remains in Northeast Ohio.
George reaffirmed his commitment to play for the Pacers this season during a charity baseball game Thursday in Indianapolis, according to ESPN.com. He dismissed recent rumors, including one that has him headed to Cavs for Love and another that has him playing with James with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018-19.
"They're all crazy," George said, according to ESPN.com. "But all are to be expected. I've been dealing with this since last season."
It's possible the Cavs could send Love elsewhere in return for a player and a draft pick, especially if it's in Thursday's draft, considered relatively deep. That could bring the New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony, James' close friend, into play, but also leaves a gaping hole in the rebounding department. Love averaged 11.1 boards in the regular season, 10.6 in the postseason. Anthony, 33, carries a career average of 6.6 rebounds.
The Cavs are seemingly stuck. They have no salary cap space and no draft picks this year, only trade exceptions that don't carry much value. Their trade assets are few. Tristan Thompson isn't enough of an offensive threat for a team to take on his hefty salary. The Cavs overpaid J.R. Smith last fall and it's hard to believe he would thrive playing without James.
And the Cavs still have to decide whether to pay free agent Kyle Korver, 36, who could draw a salary of $14 million per year in the new league order after the outrageous salary cap jump. In the regular season, Korver's 3-point percentage of .451 ranked first in the league, but he shot .391 from beyond the arc in the postseason, 59th among playoff participants. The Cavs might worry that his missed 3-pointer with 52 seconds left in Game 3 of the Finals will carry over into next season.
Mindful of the repeater tax, the Cavs must also determine the futures of Jones, Derrick Williams and Deron Williams, all unsigned for next season. I would keep Derrick Williams, but coach Tyronn Lue was averse to using him in the playoffs. Richard Jefferson, who turns 37 Wednesday, said on the most recent Road Trippin' podcast that he's again considering retirement.
There is pressure to do something, whether it be based on reality or rumor. Speculation is picking up that James could depart for Los Angeles after next season. He could join close friend Chris Paul and a coach he admires, Doc Rivers, with the Clippers. Or he could go to the Lakers, who have a core of young talent. His Brentwood home is 30 minutes from Staples Center. His company SpringHill Entertainment signed with Warner Bros. in 2015.
If James wants to eventually make L.A. his NBA home, he and wife Savannah might want to move before son LeBron Jr., who turns 13 in October, enters high school.
Whatever the Cavs do before training camp opens, it must be with defense in mind. In the Finals, the Cavs' four losses came by an average of 13.8 points, their three at Oracle by 16.7. That could play into the Korver decision, with the Cavs sacrificing some 3-point scoring for more athleticism on the defensive end if they replace him. Some league web sites have mentioned free agent Thabo Sefolosha as a possibility, but he's 33 and had groin issues last season with the Atlanta Hawks.
Some of the problem could be remedied by Lue turning his attention back to defense. He may have been forced to delegate in that area while learning how to juggle responsibilities in his first full season as coach. More emphasis in the regular season would also make a difference, with James as guilty as his teammates. He pointed out after Game 5 that injuries to Smith and Love compromised what the Cavs needed to build before the playoffs began on April 15 and he was likely speaking with defense in mind.
"It would have been great to see us at a full unit throughout the whole season so we can continue to build and build the camaraderie and build the chemistry out on the floor so you don't have to wait until April to see what you're capable of doing," James said Monday. "Yes, we were able to hit the switch, but those games in January, those games in November, games that people think that's not important, they're important to me, and they would have been important to our ballclub."
The Cavs' conundrums are many, and in the background the clock is ticking. Not only on James' prime, but on his tenure in Cleveland. Is Gilbert willing to spend more to go all-out for another championship? Will he trade Love and risk weakening the Cavs? (I believe that's a legitimate concern.) Or will he bank on a healthier roster and better defense giving the Cavs a shot to beat the Warriors if they meet in the Finals for the fourth consecutive year?
If I was forced to predict now, I'd pick door No. 3.
But Gilbert is a wild card, his course unpredictable. After Game 5, he told Cleveland.com he felt good about the Cavs' "talent, our personnel, coaching staff, everything," but that could change. The more pertinent question might be if James shares that feeling.
