A summer of uncertainty for the Cavaliers opens Thursday night and general manager Koby Altman will be feeling his way through his first NBA draft with no hint of whether LeBron James will be wearing wine and gold next season.
James has until 11:59 p.m. on June 29 to opt out of his contract and become a free agent. If he remains true to form, he'll take a least a week after free agency opens on July 1 to decide if he's leaving Cleveland again.
Where that could become the most problematic on Thursday is if Altman finds an attractive trade offer for the eighth overall pick, which the Cavs acquired last summer in the Kyrie Irving deal.
The Cavs need help at point guard, which could prompt interest Oklahoma's Trae Young or Alabama's Collin Sexton. It's possible a prospect like Missouri forward Michael Porter Jr., who saw action in only three games last season after back surgery, or Duke center Wendell Carter Jr. could fall.
But James likes playing with NBA veterans, not rookies. That's where Altman's dilemma arises, former Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks pointed out during an ESPN conference call Monday.
"You're walking into the wilderness of the unknown where you are at 8," Marks said. "How do you block out the draft compared to LeBron's decision eight days later, and how do you try to separate it? I think the hard part for Koby would come where what happens when there is a potential trade that is presented to him and he can bring back NBA-level players, if that maybe happens Thursday night, and how do you go about doing it without a commitment from LeBron?
"And what's the communication line between the front office and LeBron to run a scenario like that? I think there has to be some type of communication with that where they go at 8."
The Cavs front office might try to contact James to get his reaction to potential trade offers, but there's no guarantee he'll pick up the phone or answer a text.
"This is not an easy draft for Koby because retaining the pick is basically your selling point to LeBron going into the offseason, as well as maybe something you can do with some of those _ the Kyle Korvers, the J.R. Smiths, George Hills _ players that have some small guarantees, and how do you move that around," Marks said.
The aforementioned three have small guarantees, but not until 2019-20, which will complicate Altman's efforts to start bolstering a team that was swept by the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals.
According to basketball-reference.com, Hill carries salaries of $19 million next season and $18 million in 2019-20, but only $1 million is guaranteed in the second year. The same applies for Smith ($14.7 million, $15.6 million, $3.87 million guaranteed in 19-20) and Korver ($7.5 million in both seasons, $3.4 guaranteed in the second year).
With the Cavs' choice holding at No. 8 pick on lottery night, Altman may also be selecting from players who are not talented enough to build a team around should James depart.
ESPN's Jay Bilas called Sexton "overall the best point guard prospect in the draft" and Carter "one of the more undervalued big guys in the draft ... capable of so much more than he showed." But Bilas said neither would be the centerpiece of a Cavs' rebuild, if that's the route owner Dan Gilbert takes if James leaves.
"I don't think either Sexton or Carter Jr. are the type that would carry a team. They can carry a load, help carry a load, but they're not the same as a LeBron James type or Kevin Durant," Bilas said during a conference call Tuesday. "They could be really good pieces to a good team. There are only a handful of players you can build a team around, obviously LeBron is one of those. You don't see a lot of real superstars in the NBA; there might be a dozen of those guys."
The best-case scenario for the Cavs might be if Porter falls to them. Porter underwent a microdiscectomy procedure on his L3 and L4 spinal disks and didn't return until March 8 against Georgia in the SEC tournament. Marks suggested that Porter might need time coming off his back injury and might not help the Cavs immediately like Sexton would.
But ESPN scouting analyst Mike Schmitz said Porter might go higher than expected, which could push Carter down to the Cavs.
"He's a kid who at one point, before Marvin Bagley re-classed, was the No. 1 player in his class," Schmitz said of Porter. "He was an absolute stud on the UIBL circuit; he was outstanding at Nike Hoops Summit, McDonald's All-American. I mean, this is a guy who people really thought had a chance to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
"But there are clearly a lot of question marks with him in terms of his health, in terms of his durability, his toughness, his ability to play with others. He's an interesting guy ... I think we're all enamored with him just because we don't know where he's going to go in the draft. I think he's really the wild card here."
