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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Energy suppliers Avro and Green cease trading; Fed signals tapering may start soon – as it happened

Gas flames on a domestic cooker, as rising prices of natural gas in the UK have pushed several energy suppliers out of business
Gas flames on a domestic cooker, as rising prices of natural gas in the UK have pushed several energy suppliers out of business Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Wall Street closes higher

And finally....the prospect of the Federal Reserve pressing the brakes on its bond-buying stimulus programme didn’t stop stocks rallying in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average bounced by 1%, finishing 339 points higher at 34,259 points.

The broader S&P 500, which has been under pressure for much of the last fortnight, bounced by almost 1%, picking up 41 points to 4,396 points.

The tech-focused Nasdaq managed a similar rise too, as the economic anxiety and worries about an Evergrande debt default that spooked markets on Monday lifted.

Worries about tapering, and potential rate rises had weighed on markets recently, so it’s slightly surprising to see stocks rally now that the Fed has cleared the way to reducing its bond purchases soon.

But perhaps investors aren’t convinced that economic conditions will allow the Fed to stop its stimulus by the middle of next year, or raise rates before 2023.

As Reuters puts it:

Strategists said what eventually happens with tightening may be less hawkish than some expect.

“I don’t think the Fed’s tightening is going to be anywhere near as hawkish as they anticipate. It’s going to be hard for them to execute on this plan as the economy slows next year,” said Joseph LaVorgna, Americas chief economist at Natixis in New York.

On that note, goodnight! GW

Fed Meeting: what the experts say

Caleb Thibodeau, Associate, Global Capital Markets for Validus Risk Management, says the US Federal Reserve appears to be preparing markets for a tapering decision at its next meeting, in November:

The Fed has officially implied some conviction on tapering today, “judging that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted”. All signs indicate the committee is prepping markets for a tapering announcement at the upcoming November meeting.

“Powell indicated that the committee believes more than substantial progress – ‘substantial’ being the key qualifier for tapering – has been made on price stability goals, while opinions are mixed on the progress regarding maximum employment. Both goals need to be fulfilled before tapering, which could be as soon as the next meeting.

“While still vague, Powell has now indicated a potential monetary tightening timeline, where tapering could be concluded by as early as mid-2022 and rates – on a separate schedule and criteria checklist – to potentially start taking off by the end of 2022.

Simon Harvey, Senior FX Market Analyst at Monex Europe, says:

“By stating that there was broad consensus on the time and pace of the tapering process such that it ended in mid-2022, the dot plot can now be viewed in a more hawkish light as the speed of tapering sits at the faster of the spectrum and allows a greater grace period in between the taper and a potential rate hike.”

But... Gurpreet Gill, Macro Strategist, Global Fixed Income, at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says the pandemic is still worrying Fed officials:

“With global supply chain disruptions worsening to a degree not foreseen back in June, and the further spread of the Delta variant, weaker growth and higher inflation weighed on the minds of Fed committee members. Its latest forecasts incorporated this downside growth and upside inflation surprise, with inflation expected to be 20 basis points higher in 2022 relative to June forecasts.

“As we expected, the Fed gave advance notice tapering is coming and paved the way for this to take place from November. Once tapering starts, we anticipate this will come to an end in the third quarter of 2022.

Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist, Fidelity International, warns that there is plenty of room for policymakers to stumble:

“In a challenging week for financial markets, the Fed signalled in its September meeting that tapering of asset purchases ‘may soon be warranted’, in line with expectations. All eyes now look to November as the most likely start date for the unwind of extreme policy accommodation. At the press conference, Powell signalled he expected tapering to conclude by the middle of next year, which is somewhat more hawkish than market expectations.

“The dot plot signalled a moderately more hawkish tilt relative to its June version, suggesting two more FOMC members now favour an earlier lift-off in 2022 and the 2023 median dot has shifted up to 1%. The Summary of Economic Projections showed a slower growth for 2021 but an upgrade for 2023, while the inflation path has been upgraded over the forecast horizon, with PCE inflation now expected to be above target through 2024.

“With inflation pressures likely to prove more persistent and growth risks skewed to the downside over the next few months, the path for policy normalisation looks narrow and challenging, with much room for policy missteps.”

On the Evergrande crisis, Jerome Powell says the issue seems ‘very particular to China’ - pointing out that US company default levels are currently very low.

It’s very important that the US debt ceiling is raised in a timely manner, warns America’s top central banker.

Failing to do so could cause ‘severe damage to the economy’, Fed chair Powell says in a clear signal to Congress (where a ‘game of chicken’ over the debt ceiling is underway).

No-one should assume that the Fed can fully protect the markets, or the economy, from the consequences of a debt default, Powell adds.

Powell: rules on trading are clearly not adequate

Jerome Powell is also being grilled about the ethics row around trading by senior Fed officials, after it emerged that some made multimillion-dollar stock trades in 2020, while others held significant investments.

Powell says that he wasn’t aware of the specifics of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s stock trading.

The rules on trading by Fed officials are the same as for other government agencies, he says - while they have ‘served us well’ in the past, they are now seen as “clearly not adequate”.

So there will be changes to tighten up rules and standards.

Powell says that it’s reasonable that Fed officials should not own assets they are also buying through its stimulus package.

As a general principle, it makes a lot of sense.

He explains that he owns various municipal bonds, which were seen as a sensible choice as the Fed wouldn’t buy munis -- before he changed that rule early in the pandemic crisis because the market was close to collapsing.

The key points so far:

Powell: Tapering could be finished by middle of 2022

Jerome Powell then explains that the FOMC discussed the appropriate speed of slowing its stimulus package, once it decides to start tapering the bond-buying programme

And while no decisions were made, participants generally felt that it would be appropriate to conclude tapering by the middle of next year, he reveals.

Powell says that the goal of “substantial further progress” towards inflation has been met [prices are now rising much faster than target].

He also reveals that many committee members think they’ve also achieved the necessary substantial further progress on the maximum employment front -- others think it’s close.

Powell’s own view is that the employment goal is ‘all but met’.

Once the FOMC agrees that both goals are met - and that could come as soon as the next meeting - the committee will decide whether to taper, the Fed chair explains.

Powell: Delta variant has slowed recovery

Fed chair Jerome Powell says the US economy continues to improve, but supply chain bottlenecks and the Delta variant are both hitting growth.

At a press conference to explain today’s decisions, Powell warns that the delta variant of Covid-19 has slowed the recovery.

Supply chain problems, such as the semiconductor shortage, are hitting some sectors, and ongoing fears over the virus are weighing on employment growth (which slowed sharply in August).

As a result, the Fed has trimmed its forecast for economic growth, and raised its inflation forecasts.

Powell says there are upward risks to inflation. The Fed predicts it will drop back towards its longer-run goals, as bottlenecks ease. But the Fed would ‘certainly respond’ if higher inflation became a concern.

And the Fed chair point out that a lot depends on the pandemic.

The path of the economy continued to depend on the course of the virus, and risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Delta variant has caused significant hardship and loss, and slowed the recovery, he adds.

The US Federal Reserve has also lifted its inflation forecasts, and trimmed its forecast for growth.

Its latest economic projections suggests PCE inflation will run at 4.2% this year, up from 3.4% expected back in June - showing hotter price pressures this year.

Core PCE is now estimated at 3.7% this year, up from 3% three months ago, and 2.3% in 2022, up from 2.1% before.

This core inflation measure is then seen at 2.2% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024 -- over the Fed’s target for price stability.

The unemployment rate is now expected to steady at 4.8% this year, slightly higher than June’s forecasts.

And for GDP, Fed officials now see the economy expanding by 5.9% this year, down from 7% in June, before slowing to 3.8% growth in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023.

Updated

US Federal Reserve: tapering may soon be warranted, and rates could rise next year

Just in: America’s central bank has signalled that it could start to slow its bond-buying stimulus scheme soon, and that interest rates could rise earlier than it previously thought.

But it’s not begun tapering its $120bn-per-month QE program yet.

After its latest policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said that the economy has made progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability.

If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.

The FOMC also released its latest dot-plots, showing where officials expect interest rates to be over the next few years.

And they show that half of the 18 officials think the first rate rise will come in 2022 -- back in June, the majority thought it would come in 2023 (with 7 forecasting 2022, compared to 9 today).

Bloomberg adds:

Projections for 2024 were also published for the first time, with the median suggesting a federal funds rate of 1.8% by the end of that year. The median for 2023 rose to 1%, from 0.6% in the June projection.

The FOMC also left interest rates on hold at their current record lows of 0%-0.25% today, and decided to maintain its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $120 billion per month.

Updated

Evening Summary

Time for a quick recap:

The UK’s energy crisis has escalated, with two suppliers with over 800,000 between them ceasing trading today. Avro Energy, which supplied gas and electricity to about 580,000 households, and Green, which had more than 250,000 customers, have dropped out of the energy market, as the surge in gas prices continues to rock the sector.

Analysts predicted that more companies would follow.

Avro and Green collapsed just hours after the head of regulator Ofgem predicted that more companies would fail, affecting a large number of customers. MPs suggested the total could run into millions.

Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng suggested that companies that stand to make significant profits from record energy market prices could face a windfall tax to help ease the burden on household bills.

Kwarteng told MPs on Wednesday the government was considering “all options”, including looking at the Spanish government’s plan for a €3bn (£2.58bn) windfall tax on generators and energy traders that stand to gain from the energy crisis while homes and suppliers struggle.

Kwarteng told the business select committee:

“I think what they’re doing in Spain is recognising that it’s an entire system. We’re in discussion with [energy regulator] Ofgem officials, looking at all options,”

Kwarteng also insisted that he wouldn’t bow to pressure to lift the energy cap, which protects customers from higher bills but has also left some companies struggling. And he played down suggestions that the UK could be left with just 10 energy companies.

Wind power, which has been hit by unusually calm conditions, picked up today.

But Goldman Sachs predicted that an unusually cold winter could drive the oil price up to $90/barrel, from over $70 today.

Environment secretary George Eustice warned that the cost of carbon dioxide is going up sharply, following the surge in gas prices.

Eustice also suggested that the UK government’s bailout of CF Industries, which supplies carbon dioxide to the food industry, will run into “many millions of pounds”, possibly tens of millions.

The global supply chain problems are also hitting Germany - the Ifo research institute slashed its forecasts for German growth this year, due to shortages of materials and components.

In other news...

Netflix has acquired the works of Roald Dahl, the author of children’s classics including the BFG, Fantastic Mr Fox and the Witches, in the streaming company’s biggest content deal to date.

Exports from Great Britain to Ireland fell by almost £2.5bn in the first seven months of the year with Brexit emerging as a major factor, according to official Irish government data.

Brexit and the supply chain crisis are threatening to put a dampener on this year’s Bonfire Night firework displays as distributors warn that import problems have reduced stocks by up to 70% and forced up prices.

Fraud in the UK has risen to a level where it poses a “national security threat”, according to the main banking body, with £754m stolen from bank customers during the first half of this year – a 30% rise on the same period in 2020.

Pret a Manger shareholders, including its co-founder, Sinclair Beecham, are pumping £100m into the company to fund expansion despite losses ballooning to £256m during the pandemic.

Financial markets have rallied after China’s property developer Evergrande has said it had struck a deal on one bond payment due on Thursday, allaying fears of an imminent and messy collapse that had spooked investors. But it still faces a second payment on an offshore bond tomorrow....

Ladbrokes owner Entain hit a fresh record high after US gambling firm DraftKings upped a takeover offer.

Full story: 'Tsunami' of collapses ahead as two more energy firms cease trading

The UK gas crisis has claimed another two energy companies, bringing the total number of households that have lost their supplier this year to almost 2m.

The regulator, Ofgem, confirmed that Avro Energy, which supplied gas and electricity to about 580,000 households, and Green, which had more than 250,000 customers, have dropped out of the energy market.

The collapses bring the number of suppliers that have buckled under the pressure of record gas market prices to seven in just over six weeks. Their customers encompassed 1.5m households. In total nine suppliers have gone bust this year, affecting about 1.9m homes.

Neil Lawrence, a director at Ofgem, said it was “a worrying time for many people” but urged households to wait for a new supplier to be appointed before trying to switch energy deals.

Newcastle-based supplier Green collapsed just days after admitting it would struggle to survive the winter if the government refused to provide any support to smaller energy suppliers.

Green’s chief executive, Peter McGirr, told the Guardian there would be a “tsunami of more [collapses] to come” because small suppliers do not have deep enough pockets to weather the surge in costs without passing them on to their customers.

He said:

“We’re an independent company.

It’s hard to access finance and nothing has been done to help.”

He added that the crisis talks held last weekend by the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, had failed to include the smaller suppliers that are most vulnerable to the energy market shock and said his company’s calls for help from the industry regulator had “fallen on deaf ears”.

Here’s the full story:

Updated

Case study: ‘40% of my salary goes on house costs’

Joshua Wheeler-Gaunt, 33, is one of a growing number of people worried about rising energy bills and other costs.

Asked about the things that have become unaffordable or very pricey for him, he said:

“Everything! From house maintenance to rising energy bills [and] the cost of replacing my increasingly unreliable 14-year-old car – almost impossible without buying something equally unreliable or going up to my eyeballs in debt.

“I think my energy bills are up by about £15 a month when compared with last summer, which will be more like £40 or £50 once it gets colder. Water rose by about £60 a year, council tax by a few pounds a month …. Each one eats into your spare income. I’d say about 40% of my salary is easily gone on house costs – mortgage, council tax and bills – before considering any maintenance or improvements.”

Wheeler-Gaunt lives in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire, and works in quality assurance for an NHS unlicensed medicines manufacturer. In terms of his pay, he is an NHS “band 6”, which means between £32,000 and £39,000 a year.

He added:

“Even small luxuries such as a meal or a beer out now threaten to swallow such a chunk of my income that I can’t really go out any more if I want to save towards the more costly things. My salary is in no way commensurate with the cost of living, even though I’m probably an above average earner.

“As I live alone, any rise in costs chips away at what I can save,” he said. This money, he added, was largely destined for expensive but necessary purchases such as “replacing my knackered boiler”.

“It just adds an extra element of stress to your life. If costs keep rising, I’ll probably struggle to ever start a family in the UK. If things don’t change, I’ll probably have to leave the country again. I used to live in Switzerland, where the cost of living is more balanced and you feel like there is actually a future.”

Bloomberg: Goldman sees $90/barrel oil if winter colder than normal

Oil may surge to $90 a barrel if the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere proves colder than normal, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group, told Bloomberg.

They explain:

Such a rise would be $10 higher than the bank’s current forecast and would be accompanied by a prolonged period of high natural gas prices that already have had disastrous consequences for U.K. power providers.

Tightening gas supplies in Europe will elevate demand for oil as an alternative at a time when global crude output is constrained, Currie said during a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday. Post-hurricane disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were among the worldwide factors he cited.

[Brent crude is approaching $76/barrel today, while US crude is trading around $72/barrel]

Currie also agreed that the world needs to get used to higher gas prices, particularly outside the US.

He cites LNG (liquefied natural gas) demand from China creating a tight global gas market, plus disruption to Russia’s supplies into Europe, low inventories, and strong demand as countries switch from burning coal due to climate change.

Currie adds that even small disruptions in supplies push prices higher.

The supply chains are so severely depleted that the system cannot accommodate any kind of disruption.

Updated

Ed Miliband MP, Labour’s Shadow Business Secretary, has accused the government of complacency over the energy crisis -- and urged them to help families by scrapping the £20 per month cut to universal credit next week:

“The government response to this crisis has been characterised by a lack of preparedness that got us into it and a complacency about how we will get out of it.

“With more than 800,000 customers seeing their suppliers go bust today alone, the Business Secretary has got to come clean about the scale and severity of the threat to suppliers and recognise the economic hardship facing working people.

“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the impact of soaring global gas prices on UK businesses and families is going to be stark, because key government failures mean our energy system is not resilient enough

“To help customers, the first thing that the Government must do is cancel the cut to Universal Credit.

“In taking action to stabilise the market, Ministers must explain whether taxpayers’ money is required and if so, what the mechanisms they are going to use are and how they will get value for money rather than funneling money into the biggest energy suppliers.”

Back in the City, the FTSE 100 index has ended 102 points higher at 7083, up nearly 1.5% today.

That’s its highest close in almost two weeks. Miners and banks rallied, along with Ladbrokes owner Entain (+5.1%) which hit a record high after a $22bn takeover approach from DraftKings.

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, says markets seem upbeat, ahead of news from the US Federal Reserve central bank tonight and the Bank of England tomorrow:

“Central banks have the power to shake and stir markets, so it probably says something about exactly what investors are expecting to hear from both the Fed later today and the Bank of England tomorrow that both London and Wall Street seem positively upbeat.

Taper tantrums and rate rise ripples look to be on the back burner and fears of an imminent Evergrande collapse have also abated somewhat. The FTSE 100 has sailed happily above the 7,000 mark thanks to a really positive showing from miners helped by healthier commodity prices.

Updated

The energy sector faces a ‘bumpy ride’, warns Alex Jay, partner in the Insolvency and Asset department at law firm Stewarts, following the collapse of two suppliers today:

“This failure of Green - and now Avro - are just two of no-doubt several casualties of the gas price surge.

The effects of the pandemic, Brexit and global economic uncertainty were always going to rear their heads, and we are seeing this now in a manner nobody forecast. Expect a bumpy ride in the energy sector over the coming weeks and months.”

Updated

It’s been a good day for wind power, as breezier conditions give renewables a lift:

The oil price has rallied today, after America’s inventories of crude oil inventories fell to their lowest in nearly three years.

US crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels last week, to 414m, the shallowest reading since October 2018 as the industry continued to recover after Hurricane Ida disrupted supplies.

That’s kept oil prices up today, with Brent crude gaining 1.8% to $75.68 per barrel.

And there could be further rises ahead, if a cold winter drives up demand....

Full story: Ministers considering windfall tax on firms profiting from gas price rises

Companies that stand to make significant profits from record energy market prices could face a windfall tax to help ease the burden on households’ bills, the business secretary suggested today.

Kwasi Kwarteng told MPs on Wednesday the government was considering “all options”, including looking at the Spanish government’s plan for a €3bn (£2.58bn) windfall tax on generators and energy traders that stand to gain from the energy crisis while homes and suppliers struggle.

“I think what they’re doing in Spain is recognising that it’s an entire system. We’re in discussion with [energy regulator] Ofgem officials, looking at all options,” Kwarteng told the business select committee.

Spain’s windfall tax will target companies that have made “excess profits” from the fast-rising energy market prices. This will be used to create a fund to cover the cost of infrastructure investments and taxes that would otherwise have come from household energy bills.

More here:

Brexit and the supply chain crisis are threatening to put a dampener on this year’s Bonfire Night firework displays as distributors warn that import problems have reduced stocks by up to 70% and forced up prices.

One supplier said wholesalers were unwilling to stock up on pyrotechnics products because of additional paperwork related to Brexit and a change in safety labelling that has caused confusion about what can be sold in the UK past the end of 2022.

Richard Hogg, of the Doncaster-based distributor Fireworks Kingdom, said:

“Importing fireworks has become very difficult and unstable in the wake of Brexit. Our industry is being hit particularly hard, receiving just 30% of the usual annual supply.”

In another blow, hundreds of jobs are reportedly at risk at Vauxhall’s van plant in Luton, due to the global shortage of microchips.

The semiconductor shortage is another consequence of the pandemic; production has been hit by lockdowns, alongside a surge in demand for chips for consumer electronics devices.

Car manufacturers have been particularly hit, with many cutting production this year.

The Luton News has the story:

Staff at Luton’s Vauxhall plant have been left reeling after being told the workforce could be cut by nearly a quarter.

A letter seen by the Luton News dated September 20, reveals staff were told on Thursday that the knock on effects of the pandemic and a global semi conductor chip shortage meant up to 239 jobs were at risk, out of a workforce of 990.

The letter states the chip shortage hindered the ability of IBC Vehicles Ltd, which runs the Luton site, to produce vehicles and there were fears the situation would get worse in 2022.

Labour MP Alan Whitehead, Shadow Minister for Energy and the Green New Deal, tweets that there is a ‘total failure in the energy market’:

Dr Whitehead also warns that the ‘Supplier of Last Resort’ system (in which Ofgem chooses a new supplier) will not fix the problem:

[the surge in energy prices means many customers are currently unprofitable, particularly those on cheaper deals]

The collapse of both Avro and Green is a ‘double blow’ to the energy sector, says Justina Miltienyte, energy policy expert at Uswitch.com.

It will also cause further worry to consumers, she fears, after a series of supplier collapses already this year.

“Avro and Green’s simultaneous exits from the market come after People’s Energy and Utility Point ceased trading last week. Nine energy suppliers have been forced out this year so far and it’s likely that more may follow.

“Soaring wholesale prices are making conditions difficult for all suppliers, but challenger brands in particular are struggling to make ends meet.

“Affected customers will be moved onto new suppliers appointed by Ofgem, but for now they should sit tight and wait until their account is transferred to the new provider before trying to switch.

“Customers can be reassured that their energy supply will continue as normal and any credit balances they have built up will be protected.

Miltienyte adds that Avro and Green customers should make a note of their meter readings now, and again when contacted by their new supplier, to ensure that their bills are accurate.

“Once the new supplier is appointed, they will be in touch to provide more information.”

Some early reaction to Avro’s collapse:

Avro Energy ceases trading as crisis escalates

Avro Energy has also gone out of business, alongside Green, as the energy crisis claims two more suppliers in a single day.

Regulator Ofgem says Avro Energy and Green Supplier Limited have both announced they are ceasing to trade -- which will affect more than 800,000 customers across both firms.

Avro Energy supplies gas and electricity to around 580,000 domestic customers, while Green Supplier Limited supplies gas and electricity to around 255,000 domestic customers, and a small number of non-domestic customers.

Together the suppliers serve almost 3% of domestic customers in the market – Avro Energy 2% and Green Supplier Limited 0.9%.

The regulator says that under its safety net, the energy supply of Avro Energy and Green Supplier Limited customers will continue and outstanding credit balances of domestic customers will be protected.

Domestic customers will also be protected by the energy price cap when being switched to a new supplier - which will be chosen by Ofgem.

Ofgem director of retail Neil Lawrence said.

“I want to reassure customers of Avro Energy and Green Supplier Limited that they do not need to worry. Under our safety net we’ll make sure your energy supplies continue. If you have credit on your Avro Energy or Green Supplier Limited account this is protected and you will not lose the money that is owed to you.

“Ofgem will choose a new supplier for you and while we are doing this our advice is to wait until we appoint a new supplier and do not switch in the meantime. You can rely on your energy supply as normal. We will update you when we have chosen a new supplier, who will then get in touch about your tariff.

Updated

Back in the markets, Wall Street has opened higher as anxiety over the Evergrande crisis fades a little.

The S&P 500 index of US shares has gained 0.4%, or 17 points, in early trading to 4,371 points, having posted its worst day since May back on Monday.

European stocks are stronger too, with the FTSE 100 now up 1.3% today at 7076 points. That would be its highest close in almost two weeks, having fallen to a two-month low on Monday.

Investors are a little cheerier, after China’s indebted property developer said it had struck a deal on a domestic debt payment, soothing fears of a credit crisis in the world’s second-largest economy.

But as we explained earlier, Evergrande hasn’t yet said how it would meet this onshore bond payment - and also faces an interest payment on a bond held by foreign investors on Thursday....

Energy supplier Green to cease trading, latest casualty of energy crisis

The energy crisis has claimed another UK supplier: Green, just a couple of hours after the boss of Ofgem predicted more firms would collapse.

British energy supplier Green has ceased trading and will exit the market following the jump in natural gas prices.

Sky News says:

Energy supplier Green has become the latest victim of the crisis engulfing the sector as it collapsed blaming “unprecedented market conditions and regulatory failings”.

Green, which has more than 250,000 customers and 185 staff, confirmed that it would cease trading a day after Sky News revealed that it had lined up advisers to oversee a potential insolvency.

Green had already warned it is among those small suppliers facing the threat of going bust amid record market prices for gas and electricity.

My colleague Jillian Ambrose wrote on Sunday:

“I don’t think we’ll survive the winter if there’s not a material change,” said Peter McGirr, the chief executive at the startup, which was founded in 2019 and boasts over 250,000 customers and 185 employees.

This recent record rise in energy market prices threatens to force the company to fold by the new year unless the government and the regulator agree to throw small suppliers a lifeline.

McGirr said the crisis talks held this weekend by the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, had failed to include the smaller suppliers that are most vulnerable to the energy market shock and said his company’s calls for help from the industry regulator had “fallen on deaf ears”.

Updated

Kwasi Kwarteng also said he’s ‘confident’ Britain can find other sources of carbon dioxide, having secured a three-week deal with CF Industries to restart production at its UK fertiliser plants.

Kwarteng told the BEIS committee:

“I’m confident that we can get other sources of CO2 in that period,”

But..there are also signs today that the CO2 crisis is spreading, as the surge in natural gas prices making production uneconomic [and expected to send carbon dioxide prices surging]

One of the world’s largest distributors of the gas has warned that other European countries will face shortages, according to the Financial Times:

Nippon Gases, which sold almost $1.5bn of industrial gases on the continent last year, said “other countries in Europe will also suffer shortages” of CO2, estimating that its supplies had fallen 50 per cent across the region.

Nippon’s stark message was echoed by the head of Yara, the Norwegian chemicals group that announced last week it would slash 40 per cent of its European production of ammonia — an important input for one of the most commonly used fertilisers.

Svein Tore Holsether, its chief executive, said record natural gas prices were crippling the profitability of European fertiliser plants, which used the fossil fuel as a feedstock to make ammonia.

“We’re running at a huge negative cash flow,” he added. “Ammonia production with today’s natural gas prices and today’s spot prices for ammonia is simply not profitable in Europe.”

Updated

On energy windfall tax, Kwarteng says 'all options' being looked at

Earlier in the session, Kwasi Kwarteng was asked whether the government could impose a windfall tax to those who are profiting from the energy crisis -- and he doesn’t rule it out.

Q: In Spain, the government has put a windfall tax on the generators and traders who are making very significant profits from the gas market, to fund protections for consumers. Have you considered that option?

Kwarteng replies that “all options” are being looked at:

We’re looking at all options.

I think what they’re doing in Spain is recognising that it’s an entire system, the energy system is an entire system.

I’m in discussion with Ofgem and other officials, looking at all options.

And at the end of the session, the business secretary is asked again,... and again doesn’t rule it out.

Q: Some organisations have made a lot of money out of the gas crisis, and consumer bills are going up. Has the government considered, or ruled out, a windfall tax to help taxpayers?

Kwasi Kwarteng says he’s not a fan of windfall taxes....

But of course it’s an entire system, and we have to think about how we can get the energy system as a whole to help itself.

Q: When can we give worried constituents comfort about the measures that will be put in place to support them, if they have to change energy suppliers?

Kwarteng agrees it’s a fast-moving situation, but argues the UK is running ahead of ourselves.

He says the Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) process is working, and that the government is managing the process.

There is a danger that we talk ourselves into the panic, and it become a “self-fulfilling prophesy”, he argues.

“In extremis... people will be protected” - even though he can’t give ‘chapter and verse’ on how.

Kwarteng: Very surprised if we got down to just 10 suppliers

Q: Some industry sources think we could soon have just 10 energy suppliers - what would that cost?

Kwasi Kwarteng says he doesn’t see how analysts came up with this prediction:

I’d be very surprised, frankly, if we got to that figure.

Kwarteng adds that he wants to see a competitive market.

Such a wholesale exiting of the market would “severely reduce competition”; it’s not what he’s anticipating.

Kwarteng: The energy price cap is here to stay

Kwasi Kwarteng insists that the government will not ditch the energy price cap, despite the rising wholesale energy costs.

There are some very good companies out there, and the industry can support itself, he tells the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee

And he says the structures we have now are ‘robust’.

The business secretary tells MPs that they’ll have seen reports that some industry players think we should remove the price cap:

I have absolutely rebuffed that.

I’ve said the price cap is here to stay. We’re not moving it. And they have to work within that context.

Kwarteng adds that some companies came into the energy industry knowing there was a price cap, and they’re now complaining about it. It’s a very odd situation to complain about a key feature that was there when you entered the market, he points out.

Asked about Russia’s behaviour in the gas industry, Kwasi Kwarteng says the best way to be resilient is to have a diverse and secure energy supply market.

That including renewables and new energy sources such as hydrogen.

Diversity of supply will protect us against any shocks to the system which may deliberately be orchestrated by Mr Putin’s regime.

Kwarteng: government shouldn't be rewarding failure

Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng says the industry should look to itself for solutions to the crisis in the first instance.

In extreme situations, the government can step in.

But he doesn’t think the government should be rewarding failure.

Q: Yesterday, you said taxpayers’ money shouldn’t be put into badly-run companies. Did you have any particular company in mind?

Kwasi Kwarteng doesn’t name names, but says he doesn’t want to put taxpayers’ money into companies who’ve only come into the energy market for a year, and then drop out.

But he also reiterates that small companies can be innovative, so shouldn’t be seen as a bad thing.

Q: How short-sighted was it to allow the closure of the Rough gas storage site, which provided 70% of UK gas storage, in 2017?

Kwasi Kwarteng claims the issue of storage is a slight red herring -- however much storage you have doesn’t change the global price of gas.

It’s been made a big issue - but it doesn’t address the problem, he insists.

Kwarteng testifies on energy crisis

Back in parliament, business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is now giving evidence to the business committee about gas supply.

Darren Jones, the Labour chair, asks what the PM meant yesterday when he said this would be temporary.

Kwarteng says that the gas prices has spiked, but that you would expect it to revert to the mean.

But he says customers should prepare for long-term high prices.

Kwarteng says competition is essential for the gas market. He does not want to return to a “cosy oligopoly”, where a small number of companies would be able to set the price.

He says he wants to kill the perception that small companies are necessarily bad and big companies good.

Q: What is going to happen to the warm homes discount?

Kwarteng says that is a matter for the budget.

German growth forecast cut as supply chain bottlenecks hit recovery

Supply chain disruption is also causing economic pain in Europe’s largest economy.

Germany’s IFO economic institute has slashed its growth forecast for Germany this morning, warning that bottlenecks caused by the pandemic are hurting growth.

IFO now expects Germany’s GDP will rise by just 2.5% this year, down from a previous forecast of 3.3%. That follows a 4.6% fall in 2020, as pandemic lockdowns hit the economy.

Shortages of “key industrial intermediate products” and raw materials are holding German factories back, it says, and have recently worsened.

That’s hurting output, at a time when new orders have risen “almost continuously” and order books are “fuller than ever before”, warns IFO.

Companies have reported a series of shortages this summer, from semiconductors and plastics to metals, wood and paper.

Ifo chief economist Timo Wollmershäuser says the strong recovery from the coronavirus crisis, which had originally been expected this summer, has been postponed again.

Wollmershäuser says:

“Industrial production is currently shrinking as a result of supply bottlenecks for important intermediate goods. At the same time, service providers are recovering strongly from the coronavirus crisis,”

IFO has lifted its GDP forecast for next year, though. It now sees German growth hitting 5.1% in 2022, up from 4.3% forecast before, signaling that the recovery is delayed.

European stock markets have now recovered Monday’s losses, when a global market wobble caused their biggest daily fall in two months....

Ofgem: Expect more energy firms to go out of business

The CEO of energy regulator Ofgem has told MPs that more energy firms are likely to stop trading due to the energy price surge.

Jonathan Brearley told the Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Committee that Ofgem is planning for any eventuality, and that there is a lot of pressure on the sector right now due to the jump in energy prices.

Q: What gives the prime minister the confidence to say this will be a temporary issue?

Brearley says history shows that price spikes do go away. But that’s not something Ofgem would rely on - it has to plan for a whole range of scenarios.

Q: How significant is the current gas crisis, compared to shocks of recent years?

Brearley says it’s a ‘different kind of change’. The sector has faced shocks before, including the Covid crisis.

But the change in the gas price is something that hasn’t been seen before, at this pace.

Unfortunately, when you see costs change like this, ultimately that will feed through to customers.

And there are many suppliers under huge pressure, due to the dramatic change in their cost base.

Q: So how many suppliers are at risk?

Brearley says that the industry has seen firms exit before. But what’s different this time is the dramatic change in costs.

Five energy suppliers have stopped trading in recent months, others collapsed earlier in the year - and Ofgem expects that more won’t be able to face the circumstances we’re in, Brearley says.

But he won’t predict how it will play out.

Q: How many more, and how many customers?

Brearley says Ofgem is planning for a range of scenarios:

We do expect a large number of customers to be affected. We’ve already seen hundreds of thousands of customers affected. It may go well above that.

Q: So millions of customers could be affected?

Certainly a large number of customers, Brearley repeats- but he won’t pre-empt any processes taking place.

Q: Will it just be small suppliers, or could large ones be hit too?

Brearley refuses to make predictions - pointing out that the industry has seen a six-fold change in the gas price.

As a prudent regulator, we’re planning for all scenarios, he adds.

Our Politics Live blog is covering all the action:

Encouragingly, UK wind speed has picked up - meaning wind is providing a larger share of energy generation.

The drop in wind speeds in recent weeks was one factor in the energy price crunch, as it forced power generators to use more gas.. and to fire up an old coal power plant on Monday to meet the UK’s electricity needs.

But demand for heating will increase as we approach the winter, so the UK will need wind to keep providing power just to avoid the situation getting even worse.

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid ran a flash poll of over 700 financial professionals yesterday, and found that only 8% expect Evergrande to still be impacting financial markets significantly in a month’s time.

Around 24% thought it would be having a slight impact, while more than two-thirds thought there would be limited or no impact.

Reid says:

So the world is relatively relaxed about contagion risk for now. The bigger risk might be the knock on impact of weaker Chinese growth. So that’s one to watch even if you’re sanguine on the systemic threat.

The boss of supermarket Iceland has warned the UK’s temporary deal with CF Industries to restart carbon dioxide supplies won’t solve the food industry’s problems.

Richard Walker, Iceland’s managing director, says the three-week agreement won’t “save Christmas” for consumers, or provide a long-term solution.

Full story: Bailout of US CO2 supplier will run into 'many millions' of pounds

The UK government’s bailout of a private US firm that supplies carbon dioxide to the food industry will run into “many millions of pounds”, the environment secretary has said.

George Eustice said the financial support was necessary for three weeks to enable CF Industries, a fertiliser company that supplies CO2 as a byproduct, to restart production at one of its sites.

Food suppliers need carbon dioxide for meat production and packaging of fresh foods, but high gas prices had made it uneconomic for CF Industries to operate its sites in Teesside and Cheshire. It supplies about 60% of the CO2 that the UK needs for food production.

Eustice said taxpayer support would be needed for only about three weeks – until the market adjusted with more supply from elsewhere and customers of CF Industries adapted to a higher carbon dioxide price.

On the cost, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

“It’s into the millions. I’m not going into the precise figure because government lawyers are working on the terms of the deal … it’s a commercial arrangement.”

Challenged on why the UK taxpayer was bailing out a private US firm, Eustice said:

“The reason why it is justified for the government is … if we didn’t, there would be a risk to the food supply chain. It’s not a risk the government is willing to take.”

Minister warns CO2 prices will rise sharply

Environment secretary George Eustice also warned that the cost of carbon dioxide is going up sharply... which will have a knock-on impact on food producers.

Explaining the government’s deal with CF Industries to restart production at its fertiliser plants, Eustice told Sky News that the CO2 price is going to rise sharply, from around £200 per tonne to eventually “closer to £1,000 a tonne”.

“So a big, sharp rise.”

That would hit a range of industries, including food and drink producers.

Stuart Joyner, Specialist Sales for Energy, Redburn, has warned that the deal with CF Industries won’t fix the underlying problems:

“This is a band-aid solution that will do little to address structural under-investment in energy infrastructure in both the public and private realms in the UK, and indeed globally.”

Updated

ICYMI, the UK public’s inflation expectations have shot up this month, indicating that rising energy costs and prices in the shops have got people’s attention.

The Citi/YouGov monthly inflation expectations survey, released last night, showed that public inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.1% in September from 3.1% in August.

That’s the biggest monthly increase since the survey began more than 15 years ago.

Longer-term inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years also rose -- to 3.8% in September from 3.5% in August.

Netflix acquires works of Roald Dahl as it escalates streaming wars

Netflix has acquired the works of Roald Dahl, the author of children’s classics including Matilda, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and the BFG, in the streaming company’s biggest content deal to date.

The deal struck by Netflix, which already has a three-year deal in place with the Roald Dahl Story Company to license 16 titles, will help it build its content arsenal in the streaming wars against rivals including Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and HBO Max. More here:

This is a handy thread on why the Evergrande crisis is not a repeat of the 2008 crisis, from money manager Genevieve Roch-Decter of Grit Capital.

London copper prices have jumped, as default fears around property giant China Evergrande ease.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.1% to $9,255 a tonne, after hitting a one-month low earlier this week.

The fresh injection of liquidity from the People’s Bank of China today also cheered the markets, calming worries that China’s growth could take a hit from the Evergrande crisis.

Correction to last post: the Hong Kong market is shut today for a public holiday, but Evergrande’s shares are trading in Frankfurt (where they’re up over 20%). Sorry about that.

An index of China’s real estate companies rallied over 5 % today, after Evergrande gave a (somewhat vague) reassurance that it would meet a coupon payment on its domestic bonds on Thursday.

Fears of the knock-on impact from an Evergrande default had hit property companies. It could hit their access to funding, and also hurt consumer confidence in buying houses, weakening the wider economy.

Evergrande’s stock has jumped over 20% in Frankfurt this morning, but that still leaves them down over 80% this year, for context.

Update: The Hong Kong market (where Evergrande shares also trade) is closed for a public holiday.

Updated

UK pensioners short-changed by more than £1bn, says watchdog

A real scandal which saw an estimated 134,000 pensioners, mostly women, miss out on pension payments has been exposed.

The National Audit Office has reported today that more than £1bn-worth of UK state pensions has been underpaid, due to repeated human errors, complex rules and outdated IT systems.

Those affected lost out on an average of £8,900, the National Audit Office (NAO) said, although the true value of the underpayments will only become clear once the Department for Work and Pensions has completed its review of all cases.

The errors affect pensioners who first claimed state pension before April 2016, do not have a full NI record, and should have received certain increases in their basic state pension.

The Department does not know how many pensioners who have died have been underpaid -- for data protection reasons, it does not usually keep records for more than four years after a pensioner’s death, and if married, their spouse’s death, according to the report.

An estimated £339m will go to pensioners who should have benefited from their spouse’s or civil partner’s national insurance (NI) record; £568m to widows and widowers who should have inherited more state pension entitlement from their deceased partner; and £146m to pensioners who should have had an increase in their pension on their 80th birthday.

The Daily Mail’s This Is Money points out that many bereaved families whose relatives lost out on state pension might never see a penny:

The department may find it ‘particularly difficult’ to correct older underpayments - and as of last month had no formal plan to trace relatives in these cases - points out the National Audit Office.

A Pret A Manger store in Melcombe Street in central London.
A Pret A Manger store in Melcombe Street in central London. Photograph: Nick Ansell/PA

Pret a Manger shareholders, including its co-founder, Sinclair Beecham, are pumping £100m into the company to fund expansion despite losses ballooning to £256m during the pandemic.

The coffee shop group is planning to open more than 200 UK and Irish stores over the next two years, expanding into the London suburbs, regional cities, retail parks and, through franchise deals, into travel locations such as railway stations and motorway services.

Pret, which has 550 outlets across the UK, US, France, Dubai and Hong Kong, is also planning to expand into new international markets in Europe and Asia, mainly through franchise partnerships.

The plans come after sales dived almost 60% to £299m last year, multiplying operating losses by more than 10 times to £256m from £25m a year before. The company permanently closed 74 outlets in the UK in 2020 and 22 in the US, resulting in more than 1,000 job losses. More here.

Entain shares soar again on £16bn DraftKings takeover approach

Shares in Ladbrokes-owner Entain have surged again today, after it received a takeover approach from fantasy sports betting company DraftKings.

They’ve jumped another 7.5% to £24.31 per share, a new record high, making Entain the top FTSE 100 riser.

DraftKings is proposing to pay £28 per share -- a whopping 46.2% premium to Entain’s closing price on Monday. That values Entain at more than £16bn, or over $22bn.

Entain has already turned down a £25/share offer from DraftKings (which valued it around $20bn).

Entain’s board say they will “carefully consider the proposal”, and a further announcement will be made “as and when appropriate”. Shareholders are urged to take no action at this time.

Entain also owns Coral, and a string of online betting operations including bwin, sportingbet and PartyPoker.

DraftKings’s offer certainly validates Entain’s decision to turn down an £8.1bn takeover offer from MGM Resorts, its US joint venture partner, back in January.

As my colleague Nils Pratley explains, it’s all about the US gambling market...

Naturally the appeal of Entain at that price has little do with its 3,000 old-school bookies. The buzz is all in the US, where liberalisation of gambling laws has provoked a deal-making frenzy. DraftKings, the US suitor, comes armed with a roaring stock price and is determined to spend to grab market share....

To UK eyes, it still seems astonishing that two UK-listed companies – Flutter, owner of Paddy Power, is the other – have manoeuvred themselves into pole position in what, almost certainly, will become the world’s biggest legal betting market. The explanation that UK gambling technology, honed during the online revolution at home, is simply slicker than US versions seemed simplistic. Share prices say it must be true.

More here:

Bloomberg says Evergrande’s “vaguely worded statement” on its domestic bond interest payment has left analysts grasping for details:

Evergrande’s onshore property unit said in an exchange filing on Wednesday that an interest payment due Sept. 23 on one of its yuan-denominated bonds “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house.” But the unit didn’t specify how much interest would be paid or when.

The filing has triggered speculation among some analysts that Evergrande struck a deal with noteholders to postpone interest payments without having to label the move a default.

Chinese companies typically pay interest on local bonds through a clearing house; when they arrange to pay noteholders directly, it’s often because the companies can’t transfer the cash on time or in full, said Li Kai, Beijing-based founding partner of bond fund Shengao Investment.

“Usually it will involve extension, payment in installment or a reduction in the coupon,” Li said. “This is one of the ways to avoid defaults by distressed companies.”

FTSE 100 jumps 1%

Stocks have opened sharply higher in London, as fears over the Evergrande crisis ease a little.

The FTSE 100 index has jumped by 75 points, or over 1%, to 7056 points, its highest level this week, after China’s Evergrande struck a debt deal with onshore bondholders ahead of interest payments later this week.

[although it still face another debt payment on a US-denominated bond on Thursday].

Mining stocks are among the top risers, including Antofagasta (+3.7%), Anglo American (+3.2%) and BHP Group (-3%). They slumped earlier this week, on concerns that an Evergrande’s debt default would hurt the wider Chinese economy, cutting demand for copper, iron ore, coal and other commodities.

Other European markets are also bouncing, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index up 0.8%.

Wall Street is also expected to open higher:

Updated

Introduction: UK CO2 deal costs 'tens of millions'; Evergrande and Fed in focus

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Britain has reached agreement to get carbon dioxide pumping again, but it won’t be cheap.

Overnight, the UK struck a deal with CF Industries to get the American company to restart the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) at two fertiliser plants, addressing a crisis that threatened to disrupt the food industry.

It will see the government provide “limited financial support” for CF Fertilisers’ operating costs for three weeks while the CO2 market adapts to global gas prices.

And the bill is expected to run into tens of millions of pounds, Environment Secretary George Eustice said this morning.

He told Sky News:

“It’s going to be into many millions, possibly the tens of millions but it’s to underpin some of those fixed costs.

They’re big costly plants”

“We need the market to adjust, the food industry knows there’s going to be a sharp rise in the cost of carbon dioxide,”

Eustice added that if the government had not acted, then there would have been food supply problems (producers have been warning that consumers would soon see shortages otherwise) and animal welfare issues.

You’d have lots of chickens on farms that couldn’t be slaughtered on time, and would have to be probably euthanized on farms, we’d have a similar situation with pigs, so there would have been a real animal welfare challenge here, and a big disruption to the food supply chain, so we felt we needed to act.”

But the food industry also faces sharply higher carbon dioxide prices, he added:

“We need the market to adjust, the food industry knows there’s going to be a sharp rise in the cost of carbon dioxide,”

Also coming up today

The financial markets are focused on the debt crisis at China’s property group Evergrande, which faces crunch bond repayments this week.

Overnight, Evergrande said it had agreed a deal with domestic bondholders, who are due a coupon worth around $35.9m (£26.3m).

That has calmed some fears that the company could collapse, sending shockwaves through China’s property sector, and beyond.

But, there was no mention of its plans for a $83.5m interest payment on an overseas bond that is also due on Thursday.

China’s central bank also scrambled into action, injecting 120 billion yuan (£13.6bn) into the banking system to strengthen the financial system amid concerns over the debt crisis at Evergrande.

This has reassured investors -- helping China’s CSI 300 index to recover from steep early losses as it reopened after a holiday (it’s now down just 0.7% today).

Reuters explains:

China Evergrande Group’s main unit said on Wednesday it would make a coupon payment on its domestic bonds on Sept. 23, offering some relief to jittery markets that had been on edge over fears that a default of China’s No. 2 developer could ripple through the global financial system.

Hengda Real Estate Group said in a statement it would make the coupon payment on its Shenzhen-traded 5.8% September 2025 bond on time on Sept. 23.

The announcement comes as Evergrande, once the country’s top-selling developer, inches closer to a key deadline for an interest payment on a dollar bond, with financial markets tense even as investors and analysts played down the threat of its troubles becoming the country’s “Lehman moment.”

Hengda Real Estate’s coupon payment totals 232 million yuan ($35.88 million), according to Refinitiv data.

“We are still trying to understand what this payment means for the other bonds but I imagine they would want to stabilise the market and make other coupon payments, given the close scrutiny,” said a source familiar with the situation who declined to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media

And then tonight, the US Federal Reserve releases new economic forecasts, and ‘dot-plot’ projections for interest rate rises.

Investors will be looking for signs that the Fed’s Open Market Committee is ready to start tapering its bond-buying stimulus programme by the end of the year, or expecting faster interest rate rises.

Elsa Lignos of RBC Capital Markets says:

The FOMC is likely to take another step in the direction of taper. We still think it will finally kick off at either the November or December meeting, so we would not expect a full airing of any details at this meeting.

From our lens the most important thing to come from this meeting will be the dots. The dots are primed to move—even if the median doesn’t. In ’22, the median will shift higher if just two officials that presently expect no hike raise their estimate. In ’23, it would take just one official who is presently at the median for the median to shift higher. But whether the medians shift or not, our sense is that directionally the underlying movement of the dots will be for more hikes at this point.

We will also get the ’24 dot for the first time. We expect the first take here is likely to show two additional hikes. What’s the risk? That the Fed shows fewer increases than we think (especially in ’24) and that all but cements what seems to be a growing discussion that the Fed is kicking around a far shallower terminal rate than is suggested by their long run funds estimate (which currently sits at 2.5%). Our US economist argues (and we agree) that economic outturns may not afford the Fed the luxury of going that slow, or ending that low.

Markets are expected to open higher:

The agenda

  • 10.30am BST: Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee hearing on the UK energy crisis
  • 3pm BST: US monthly home sales for August
  • 7pm BST: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and economic projections
  • 7.30pm BST: US Federal Reserve press conference

Updated

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