Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 12.15) and Nick Fletcher

Markes nervous amid weak UK construction and US jobs figures - as it happened

Britain’s builders hit by fog of uncertainty over EU referendum
Britain’s builders hit by fog of uncertainty over EU referendum Photograph: Alamy

European markets slide again

Continuing concerns about the state of the global economy after a series of disappointing data from around the world continued to send shares lower. Poor UK construction figures and lower than forecast US private sector job numbers from ADP were the latest repots to unsettle investors.

Meanwhile oil slipped back from its early highs after a higher than expected increase in US crude stocks, while metal prices suffered on worries about China after its recent weak manufacturing figures. So commodity companies were among the biggest fallers.

And there was always Donald Trump’s approaching victory in the Republican nominations to provide another reason for investors to tread carefully.

The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 fell 73.57 or 1.19% to a four week low of 6112.02
  • Germany’s Dax dropped 0.99% to 9828.25
  • France’s Cac closed 1.09% lower at 4324.23
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB dipped 0.17% to 17,935.67
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 1.26% at 8654.3
  • In Greece, the Athens market bucked the trend, adding 1.1% to 590.05

On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 111 points or 0.6%, while Brent crude is down 0.49% at $44.75 a barrel.

On that note, we’ll close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Updated

In its statement, the ECB said:

It has decided to permanently stop producing the €500 banknote and to exclude it from the Europa series, taking into account concerns that this banknote could facilitate illicit activities. The issuance of the €500 will be stopped around the end of 2018, when the €100 and €200 banknotes of the Europa series are planned to be introduced.

Production of €500 note to be phased out.
Production of €500 note to be phased out. Photograph: Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images

As expected, the European Central Bank has said it will no longer produce or issue €500 notes.

It added that existing notes will still remain legal tender and retain their value.

UK prime minister David Cameron is giving evidence to a Commons committee on the EU referendum, and my colleague Andrew Sparrow is covering the meeting, beginning here.

The mixed picture from the day’s US economic figures does not mean a June rate rise is completely off the table. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

Today’s abundance of US data has made for a difficult trading environment, with contrasting data points providing mixed expectations for monetary policy implications. The overwhelmingly positive release of services and composite PMI readings helped paint an encouraging picture for US business, with improved factory orders and trade balance helping raise rate hike expectations for the June meeting.

However, the picture has been muddled by a shockingly poor April ADP non-farm payrolls number, which at 156,000 fell to the lowest level in over two years. The ADP reading is the only figure of the day that has a second bite at the cherry and if Friday’s headline figure confounds today’s ADP weakness, we are likely to see a significant rise in June rate hike expectations.

The resurgence of the US dollar this week has sent shockwaves throughout the foreign exchange markets, as traders begin to realise that perhaps a 15-month low in the dollar index makes little sense just six weeks away from an increasingly ‘live’ [Federal Reserve] meeting. While markets are currently pricing in just a 12% chance of a June hike, the reality is likely to be higher, given the hawkish tone of recent Fed member comments.

US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration.

Inventories climbed by 2.8m barrels compared to forecasts of a 750,000 increase. Crude prices have come off their best levels following the figures, but even so, Brent is still up 0.8% at $45.33 a barrel. Earlier in the day it had climbed as high as $46.01.

And here’s the agenda for Monday’s Eurogroup meeting, including talks on the Greece’s debt:

The Eurogroup will hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss the state of play of the macroeconomic adjustment programme for Greece.

Discussions will cover a comprehensive package of policy reforms as well as the sustainability of Greece’s public debt. Both elements need to be in place in order to finalise the programme’s first review and unlock further financial assistance to Greece.

Updated

Over in Greece, and efforts are continuing to reach a deal between the country and its creditors ahead of a proposed Eurogroup meeting next week. Greek newspaper Kathimerini reports:

Deputy eurozone finance ministers, known as the Euro Working Group (EWG), will hold a conference call on Wednesday aimed at bridging differences between the government in Athens and foreign creditors ahead of a crucial eurogroup meeting on Monday, May 9.

The teleconference is expected to focus on an additional 3.6 billion euros’ worth of contingency measures that Greece is being asked to implement should it miss budget targets in 2018.

The extra measures have been demanded by the International Monetary Fund, which deems that the 5.4 billion euros’ worth of measures set out in Greece’s third international bailout are inadequate for it to achieve a budget surplus worth 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2018.

Greek officials have instead proposed the activation of an automatic mechanism for cutting state spending in the event that the government misses budget targets.

IMF officials are also expected to take part in Wednesday’s teleconference. Greece will be represented by Alternate Finance Minister Giorgos Houliarakis.

And here are some of the comments made by the survey’s respondents:

  • “Severe non-skilled labor shortage is hurting the construction industry.” (Construction)
  • “Business is holding steady, revenue is almost as anticipated and costs are lower which is helping to maintain current profitability.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “We expect our business condition to improve in Q2 as compared to Q1. Typically, Q1 is our slowest period and business activity picks up later through the year.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Very favorable cost conditions all around.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “In higher education we are gearing up for the summer conference season. This impacts (increases) the spend in our service category and drives income from many campuses.” (Educational Services)
  • “Recent upturn in oil prices is creating a slightly more positive outlook for those in the energy industry, but has not been enough to initiate hiring or spending.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business is still improving. Trucking has tightened due to produce hauling season.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “Heading into a slower season, but cautious optimism of modest gains from same period last year.” (Retail Trade)

Here are the details of the ISM survey:

ISM survey
ISM survey Photograph: ISM

US service sector grows faster than expected

And here’s is confirmation of a stronger US services sector.

The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index has climbed from 54.5 in March to 55.7 last month, better than the forecast level of 54.7. This is the highest level since December.

The new orders index rose to 59.9 in April, up from 56.7 the previous month.

But business activity slowed, with the index dipping from 59.8 in March to 58.8.

Updated

The first set of US services data is out and is slightly better than expected.

The Markit services final PMI has come in at 52.8 for April, up from the initial reading of 52.1 and March’s level of 51.3.

The final composite reading - both services and manufacturing - was 52.4, up from an initial 51.7 and 51.3 in March.

Still to come are the figures from ISM’s services survey.

Wall Street opens lower

Not surprisingly US markets are once more following their global counterparts lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 106 points or 0.6%, following the weaker than expected ADP jobs data. The disappointing figures added to the general unease about a whole spate of releases pointing to a slowdown in the global economy.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened around 0.5% lower.

Meanwhile the FTSE 100 has fallen 0.99% - albeit off its worst levels - while Germany’s Dax is down 0.74% and France’s Cac is off 0.77%.

More from the US.

The country’s trade deficit fell by more than expected in March, down 13.9% to $40.4bn, as imports fell to their lowest level since 2010.

Meanwhile US productivity dropped at a 1% annual rate in the first quarter, the second quarterly decline. Labour costs rose by 4.1%, the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014.

Updated

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics which helps compile the ADP jobs data, said:

The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring.

Changes in US employment
Changes in US employment Photograph: ADP

The poor ADP jobs data adds to the feeling the US Federal Reserve may not be in a rush to raise interest rates but the report is worrying for the US economy, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco. He said:

The US dollar fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the release as poor jobs data reduces the likelihood of a rate hike next month from the US Fed.

Investors see the ADP data as a “heads-up” ahead of the official Non-Farm Payroll report which is due out this Friday. It certainly is effective in measuring the overall trend in the data, but it can be patchy on a month-by-month basis. This is because the government’s number tends to be considerably more volatile, and of course it is this volatility that traders look for and react to. So the fact that today’s release was so far away from trend will have traders scratching their heads. It may be positive for risk assets for the Fed to hold off from hiking rates, but it sends a grim message about the US economy.

US jobs figures lower than expected

Ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers, the monthly survey of private sector jobs from ADP came in much lower than expected.

ADP said US employment increased by 156,000 private sector jobs in April, compared to 194,000 last month and expectations of a rise of between 195,000 and 200,000 this time round.

Last month’s figure was revised down from the initial estimate of 200,000.

Updated

London Stock Exchange shares fall 7% as ICE rules out bid

London Stock Exchange shares have dropped more than 7% after Intercontinental Exchange ruled out a bid, leaving the way clear for LSE’s proposed merger with Deutsche Börse.

New York stock exchange owner ICE said in March it was considering an offer for the LSE, but now says:

Following due diligence on the information made available, ICE determined there was insufficient engagement to confirm the potential market and shareholder benefits of a strategic combination.

So it has “no current intention” to make a bid which rules it out for six months unless it receives the consent of the Takeover Panel.

Greek manufacturing edged higher in April, but still showed a contraction for the third month in a row.

Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 49.7, up from 49 in March but still below the 50 level which signals expansion. Markit said:

The downturn in the manufacturing sector of Greece continued during April. Incoming new orders fell for a further month while outstanding business levels deteriorated. However, job creation was still evident in the sector and volumes of production stabilised after three months of contraction.

But there were some encouraging signs, according to Markit economist Samuel Agass who said:

April survey data was mixed for Greek goods producers. On the one hand, the headline PMI remains below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark, thus signalling a further downturn in the manufacturing sector of Greece. Incoming new orders are still on the decline and outstanding business levels again deteriorated at a substantial pace, with a downturn in the construction sector hampering economic growth according to panellists.

However, production stabilised for the first time during 2016 and job creation was still evident, highlighting firms’ intentions to invigorate future output with increased manpower. Likewise, purchasing activity rose for the first time since August 2014, highlighting that there are some encouraging signs pointing to a revival in the manufacturing sector of Greece over the coming few months.

Greece manufacturing PMI
Greece manufacturing PMI Photograph: Markit

Piglets.
Snouts in the trough

China has been forced to dip into its emergency pork reserves after seeing prices hit record highs.

With breeding sows in short supply, and domestic demand swelling, Beijing has decided to release 3.05 million kilograms of frozen pork reserves over the next month.

The FT explains how pork prices have been sizzling recently:

Policymakers have good reason to want to keep pork prices under control: China produces and consumes more pork than any other country on Earth, and the meat factors heavily into the CPI basket used to calculate overall consumer inflation.

In March the official consumer price index rose 2.3 per cent year on year, with a rise of 28.4 per cent by pork prices during the period contributing 0.64 percentage points.

The pork crisis could also be a consequence of China’s industrial revolution. There are now more wealthier middle-class consumers bringing home the bacon, and keen to eat expensive food, but fewer agricultural workers tending the piglets.

Markets keep falling

European stock markets have suffered another morning of hefty losses, as economic worries ripple through trading floors again.

The FTSE 100 has hit a new three-week low, down 76 points or 1.2% at 6109 points, while France and Germany are both down around 0.75%

The slowdown in Britain’s construction sector, following a shock contraction in manufacturing yesterday, hasn’t helped the mood in the City.

Disappointing Chinese and US factory data released this week has also dampened optimism.

There may also be a Trump effect. Wall Street is being called down, after the Donald all-but wrapped up the Republican nomination overnight.

Mihir Kapadia, CEO at Sun Global Investments, reckons investors are pretty uneasey today.

‘’A decline in US stocks last night has been followed by another weak day in Asian Indices today, as commodities and bonds are also selling off. Investors appear to remain generally uneasy about the state of the global economy, with the latest agitation coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia deciding on Tuesday to cut its benchmark rate to 1.75%, reflecting soft inflation and, like many others, general economic malaise. A contributing factor to Australia’s economic woes has been a drop in demand from a weary China, which has its own problems as its economy looks to be losing steam on the back of some weak manufacturing data.

Another country with weak manufacturing data is the UK – reports suggesting manufacturing activity contracted in April for the first time since March 2013. The slowdown in the oil industry is certainly hitting production, with firms also blaming soft domestic demand combined with a fall in foreign business.


Here’s our news story on the construction slowdown:

Last Friday, we got terribly excited by the news that the eurozone had grown by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2016, outpacing Britain and America.

But perhaps this was premature...

New data today shows that retail sales fell by 0.5% in March, which could suggest growth was less buoyant than hoped.

Carsten Brzeski of ING fears the data could be revised down in a few weeks (when eurostat will have more data to play with)

The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed and Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics are both concerned by the slowdown in UK construction growth.

This drop in construction growth comes as Barclays unleashes a no-deposit mortgage on the market.

Technically, a parent does need to provide a 10% deposit, but that will be returned - with interest - if their little darling manages to keep up the monthly payments.

So for the first time since the collapse of Northern Rock, a major high-street lender is effectively offering to lend the full value of a property. This could be a worrying moment...

However, before the credit crunch of 2007, some riskier UK banks would actually lend you 125% of a property’s value. We’re not quite at panic levels yet...

Updated

David Noble of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply also blames Brexit fears for the slump in construction sector growth.

“Fears over weaker UK and global economic growth dealt a blow to confidence in the construction sector, leading to delays in new spending commitments. The prospect of the EU referendum and its outcome in June are likely to add to uncertainty too, with many construction firms preferring to wait and see what happens before making any decisions.

“Construction companies adopted a more cautious approach to purchasing and hiring, leading to a rise in sub-contractor usage to tide them over until the outlook becomes clearer. The slowdown in new order growth in April suggests that though spring may be in the air, sunnier times may still be a way off for the construction sector, at least for the time being.”

UK construction PMI

UK construction sector growth hits three-year low

Breaking: Growth across Britain’s construction sector has slowed to a near three-year low.

Fears over Britain’s EU referendum, and weakness in housebuilding are to blame -- as concerns about the strength of the UK recovery grow.

Data firm Markit reports that its construction PMI, which measures activity across hundreds of building firms, has fallen from 54.2 in March to 52.0 in April.

That’s the slowest since June 2013.

Companies reported that new orders had stagnated, as the clients suspended spending.

With “heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook”, some customers aren’t prepared to commit to new projects. Britain’s EU vote, on June 23rd, is a key

UK construction PMI

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, warns that the UK construction sector appears to be struggling:

“UK construction firms reported their worst month for almost three years in April, meaning that the first quarter slowdown is unlikely to prove temporary.

“Stalling new order volumes not only set the scene for further weakness ahead, but are already weighing on staff hiring and input buying across the construction sector.

“Softer growth forecasts for the UK economy alongside uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum appear to have provided reasons for clients to delay major spending decisions until the fog has lifted.

“An additional factor dragging on construction sector performance is the lack of momentum in residential building. April’s survey highlighted one of the weakest rises in housing activity since early-2013, suggesting that greater caution in this sub-sector is adding to the sluggish growth conditions seen across the wider construction industry.”

Updated

Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight agrees that the eurozone PMIs are ‘lacklustre’, but remains hopeful that growth will pick up.

While they have firmed recently, oil and commodity prices and the euro are still at levels that are supportive to Eurozone growth. Major ECB stimulus that was enhanced in March will increasingly kick in over the coming months, while the fiscal stance across the Eurozone is gradually becoming more growth orientated with increasing fiscal stimulative measures being introduced in a number of countries (along with increased public spending to deal with the influx of migrants).

Meanwhile, generally improved job markets across the Eurozone are supportive to consumer spending along with the boost to purchasing power coming from negligible deflation/inflation.

Eurozone's 'tepid" recovery continues

Europe’s private sector continued to recover in April, although the revival is less than spectacular.

That’s according to data firm Markit, whose composite PMI (which measures private sector growth) has come in at 53.0 in April. That’s only a smidgen below March’s 53.1, and means 34 months of unbroken growth.

The eurozone’s Big Four economies all expanded, although Germany appears to be losing some momentum.

Eurozone PMI

Companies reported taking on more staff (although in France the increase was marginal).

They were also forced to cut prices again to stimulate sales, suggesting the eurozone still face a deflation threat despite the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures.

Markit’s Chris Williamson explains:

“The final PMI data confirm the earlier flash estimate that the eurozone economy grew at a steady but unspectacular annual rate of 1.5% at the start of the second quarter. Prices charged also continued to fall, indicating that growth is being partly fuelled by price discounting.

“However, while still tepid, the sustained eurozone growth contrasts with slowdowns in the US and UK, suggesting the ECB’s more aggressive stimulus is helping to drive a steady recovery. The survey numbers also indicate that domestic demand within the eurozone is picking up which, alongside the weaker currency, is helping to offset sluggish external demand.

So it’s not all bad.

Updated

German service sector growth has slowed; its PMI has dipped to 54.5, from 55.1in March.

That still shows expansion, but the slowest rate since last winter.

Updated

France’s service sector has clawed its way back to growth, with the PMI rising to 50.6 from 49.9 in March.

Spanish service sector growth continues.

The first eurozone service sector data is out, and it shows that Spanish companies continued to grow last month.

The Spanish Services PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, has dipped slightly to 55.1, from 55.3. That’s comfortably over the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

It suggests the prospect of another election (called for late June) hasn’t hit the economy.

Updated

Mining shares are being hit this morning, pulling the London stock market into the red.

Worries over the global economy are being blamed as BHP Billiton sheds 5% and Anglo American loses 3%.

BHP is also being hit because Brazilian prosecutors have just filed a $58bn civil lawsuit over the Bento Rodrigues dam disaster which claimed 19 lives last year.

Biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 today
Biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Mining shares also fell sharply yesterday, after disappointing factory data from China and the UK suggested economy demand was slowing.

FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga warns that:

The elevated concerns over the health of the global economy complimented with the incessant declines in oil prices have soured investor risk appetite, consequently leaving the FTSE100 vulnerable to further losses.

Sainsbury posts falling sales and profits

The Sainsbury’s Logo is displayed on an employee uniform in a store in London, Britain December 3, 2015. REUTERS/Neil Hall/File Photo GLOBAL BUSINESS WEEK AHEAD PACKAGE - SEARCH ‘BUSINESS WEEK AHEAD MAY 2’ FOR ALL IMAGES

The ongoing supermarket price wars have hit profits at supermarket chain J Sainsbury’s.

The company has posted a 14% drop in annual pretax profits, on the back of a 1.1% drop in sales. That’s better than some analysts had predicted.

However, CEO Mike Coupe has warned that the market will remain competitive “for the foreseeable future”, sending shares down 1.5% in early trading.

Next’s warning on sales and profits could spell bad news for other retailers too.

James McGregor, partner at Retail Remedy retail consultants, explains:

It was inevitable that the weather would feature in some way in Next’s trading update and we have not been disappointed. If Next have been challenged by the unseasonal weather this season, then we can assume that the majority of fashion retailers are really suffering.....

To lower Next’s full price sales guidance range to -3.5%, indicates a sense of nervousness. Ever cautious, we are not surprised to hear Lord Wolfson warn of difficult trading ahead. His caution is understandable though, poor sell throughs are costly. The weather is finally going the right way but the customer might yet hold off buying her beachwear.

More gloom from Next

A Next Retail store.

Retail group Next has got the morning off to a bad start, by cutting its sales guidance for the second time in two months.

Once again, bad weather get some of the blame; Next says that recent cold weather in March and April reduced demand for clothing. That follows the unusually mild winter, which hit sales of warm coats.

But it also warned that demand for clothing may simply be weaker, as consumers cut back.

My colleague Sean Farrell has the details:

Though sales have improved in the past few days as weather has improved, the company said demand for clothes could stay weak.

In the three months to 2 May Next’s total sales fell by 0.2% and full-price sales dropped 0.9%, at the low end of full-year sales guidance of -1% to 4%.

As a result, Next cut its annual guidance for full-price sales to between -3.5% and +3.5%. It slashed its previous guidance in March when Lord Wolfson, the chief executive, predicted this year would be the most difficult since the financial crisis.

Next also cut its guidance for annual profit. Pre-tax profit could fall as much as 8.9% to £748m with a best estimate of profit rising 3.7% to £852m.

Updated

The agenda: Eurozone service sector PMIs

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

After yesterday’s jitteriness, traders in Europe are pretty cautious as they wait for a flurry of economic news.

Today we find out how the eurozone’s service sector performed last month. It may show that European consumers kept spending last month, despite signs of weakness in the global economy.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets has the predictions:

The Spanish economy has been notable for its outperformance in recent months despite continuing high levels of unemployment and today’s latest numbers are expected to come in at 55.1, while Germany is expected to remain unchanged at 54.6.

On the downside the French numbers have consistently underperformed, though we are expecting to see a pick up to 50.8 as the French services sector strives to shake off the after effects of the November attacks in Paris.

Those figures come between 8am and 9am BST.

We then find out how Britain’s construction industry fared last month; will builders feel any impact from Brexit uncertainty?

And there’s plenty of company results to wade through; brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev, high street retailer Next, supermarket chain J Sainsbury, oil group Shell and defence group BAE are all updating the City.

In the meantime, European markets are likely to open sluggishly as investors worry about the global economic slowdown, yesterday’s fall in the value of the US dollar, and political instability rising in Europe. And that’s before anyone mentions Donald Trump....

Updated

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.