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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 1.30) and Nick Fletcher

Markets hit by fears of US June rate hike – as it happened

The City of London.
The City of London. Photograph: miscellany / Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

Markets record hefty falls

The increasing fear that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next month, earlier than expected, has sent global markets tumbling. Following Wednesday’s more hawkish than expected Fed minutes, a number of the central bank’s key figures have lined up to suggest the June meeting is “live” in terms of a possible rate hike.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said:

Anxiety is setting in for financial markets, as the proposition of another rate hike from the Fed draws the bears out once more. Today’s US open has seen the Dow crash to a two month low, bringing the FTSE down with it as rate sensitive banks benefit at the expense of the wider market. The US dollar strength continues to be a running theme, as energy, metal and materials producers suffer at the hands of a yet another sea of red for the sector.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes provided the latest clue that perhaps a June rate hike may not be such a crazy idea, with the markets now factoring in a 32% chance of action. This shift from 4% on Monday to 32% today goes a long way to explain the substantial rise in the US dollar this week. With a hawkish Fed and a three year high in US CPI, the potential implications of a strong jobs report in June is starting to click in the minds of investors.

With the dollar rising on the interest rate outlook, commodity prices fell back, including copper hitting a three month low and Brent crude losing 1% to $48.33. So mining companies were among the leading fallers, as were travel companies in the wake of a disappointing update from Thomas Cook and the disappearance of a flight from Paris to Cairo. But banks benefited from hopes that any US rate rise would support their balance sheets. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 fell 112.45 points or 1.82% to 6053.35, its biggest one day percentage fall since early February
  • Germany’s Dax dropped 1.48% to 9795.89
  • France’s Cac closed down 0.85% at 4282.54
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.95% to 17,545.56
  • Spain’s Ibex ended 1.14% lower at 8674.7
  • In Greece, the Athens market fell 0.96% to 622.28

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 140 points or 0.8%.

On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

If the US Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates, then the Bank of England may be heading in the opposite direction. Katie Allen reports:

A top Bank of England policymaker has warned that even if Britain votes to stay in the EU, underlying weakness in the economy could require more support from the central bank.

Jan Vlieghe, one of the nine policymakers who vote on interest rates, has previously floated the idea of them being cut below zero. Speaking on Thursday, he again raised the prospect of rates coming down further from their record low of 0.5%, when he said the economy could require “additional monetary stimulus” if it does not rebound after a remain vote in the EU referendum on 23 June.

Updated

Helena also reports that Handelsblatt, the German financial daily, says lenders may agree to give Greece a much large tranche of bailout aid once the reform package is passed than earlier thought. “Instead of the scheduled €5.7bn, the ailing country could receive €9bn to €11bn.”

That would be enough to keep it solvent until the end of the year - both delaying another potentially explosive financial review and allowing lenders to sort out their own differences over how to deal with Greece’s staggering €321bn debt load

But while politically expedient, senior Athens-based EU diplomats also admit that it does not resolve the underlying problem of Greece’s economic fundamentals simply not adding up.

More from Athens where a war of words has broken out on the first day of debate over the controversial omnibus bill the government has brought to parliament outlining the latest reforms the country must take. Helena Smith reports:

At 7,500 pages the omnibus bill was never going to be passed lightly. And MPs, faced with the daunting task of reading it, have ensured that debate has got off to a tumultuous start.

Highlighting the explosive mood, the former prime minister Antonis Samaras accused the leftist-led government of legislating practically everything it had ever denounced. “It is increasing Enfia [property tax] that it said it would abolish … and heating oil which we reduced,” said the ex-conservative leader listing the various levies his successor Alexis Tsipras has agreed to raise in return for further bailout funds.

“And the worst thing: we brought results. Now they [creditors] don’t believe [Athens] will bring results. And that is why they are imposing an automatic fiscal brake,” he added referring to the mechanism that will trigger automatic across-the-board cuts in the event of Greek finances veering off course.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Photograph: Pantelis Saitas/EPA

Since being replaced by Tsipras in January 2015, Samaras has made few public interventions.

In a caustic statement released in the last ten minutes, Tsipras’ office said: “Samaras should speak publicly more often so that citizens can remember his time in power when the country’s GDP was destroyed [fell] by 25 %.”

Opposition parties are describing the fiscal break as amounting to the enforcement of a fourth bailout for a populace already hit by runaway unemployment and poverty. On the eve of the debate beginning, the finance ministry announced that the mechanism would not be included in the omnibus bill but would be tabled “as an amendment” at a later date. Insiders admit they cannot agree with lenders over the cuts that will be made should it be activated next year.

And, given the falls seen in stock markets since Wednesday’s more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve minutes:

Updated

June definitely a live meeting - NY Fed president

Back with the Fed, and New York Fed president William Dudley has added more comments about possible rate rises.

He has echoed the comments elsewhere that June is a live meeting, and that the Fed believes markets were underestimating the probability of a rate rise. He said a June or July move was a reasonable expectation, if his forecasts for the way the US economy is going appear on track. But again, he added that the risk of the UK leaving the EU was one that needed to be considered, and the probability of Brexit will influence the Fed’s decision.

New York Fed president William Dudley.
New York Fed president William Dudley. Photograph: Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

Updated

Over to Greece, and the International Monetary Fund has said debt relief negotiations for the country need to focus on extended maturity periods and very low interest rates.

The IMF reportedly wanted a halt to Greek debt repayments until 2040, but spokesman Gerry Rice would not confirm this in his regular news briefing. But he said (quote from Reuters):

We have exchanged preliminary views with our partners on general principles regarding debt relief. We believe that it is possible to restore debt sustainability without upfront haircuts, although this would involve providing very concessional loan terms, including long grace and maturity periods and very low interest rates.

The Greek parliament is due to vote on the latest series of reform measures over the weekend, ahead of the latest Eurogroup meeting next Tuesday.

New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley has repeated that interest rate changes are very much dependent on the economic data at the time.

In a speech confirming the Fed’s desire to help households and businesses understand how the economy is progressing and how that helps determine the Fed’s decisions, he said:

When asked about the trajectory for the monetary policy stance, I always point out that it is data dependent. The Federal Open Market Committee calibrates the stance of monetary policy to best achieve our twin objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, taking into account our forecast for how the economy is evolving. This forecast reflects the ongoing flow of the data. Data releases that are close to our expectations have little additional impact on the forecast, while data releases that deviate significantly from our expectations can lead to more significant revisions of the forecast. It is, therefore, important for market participants and households to be able to follow the data along with the FOMC and to understand how we are likely to interpret and react to incoming data.

Updated

The market fall is accelerating as Wall Street’s losses increase, following the suggestion from the US Federal Reserve minutes that a June rate rise could be on the cards.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down 159 points or 0.9%, while Germany’s Dax has dropped 1.2% and France’s Cac has fallen 0.58%.

In the UK the FTSE 100 is 110 points lower at 6055, a fall of 1.7%.

Wall Street opens lower

The prospect of a US rate hike as early as June has helped push American markets lower at the start of trading.

With the oil price also falling - West Texas Intermediate is down around 2% at $47.15 a barrel - the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped 51 points or 0.32%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened around 0.4% lower.

Another Fed speaker, in the form of vice chairman Stanley Fischer, but there appear to be few clues to the next rate hike in his comments.

In a speech - entitled (Money), Interest and Prices: Patinkin and Woodford - at an economics conference in New York, he said:

Faster trend growth would increase the long-run equilibrium interest rate, and what we need most, now that we are near full employment and approaching our target inflation rate, is faster potential growth.

[The equilibrium rate is the level of borrowing costs associated with stable inflation and full employment, according to Reuters].

New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley is due to speak in an hour or so.

There is a strong case for the US to raise interest rates in June, but there might be grounds to wait until July after the UK’s EU referendum, according to Richmond Federal Reserve president Jeffery Lacker.

Lacker, a notable hawk but non-voting member at the moment, told Bloomberg Radio that a vote for the UK to leave the EU posed risks to the UK and Europe and could spill over to the US.

He said the markets took the wrong signal from the Fed’s decision to leave rates on hold at its last two meetings, overestimating how likely it was to leave rates unchanged in future.

Lacker said he was comfortable with four rate rises this year, and had supported an increase at April’s meeting.

Meanwhile, there are only tenuous signs of growth according to the latest Philadephia Federal Reserve survey.

The current business conditions index came in at -1.8 in May compared to -1.6 in the previous month, and the consensus of +3.5. The Fed said:

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to report tenuous growth this month. The indicator for general activity was essentially unchanged in May and remained slightly negative. Other broad indicators also reflected general weakness in business conditions. The indicator for employment improved but remained negative. Manufacturers’ forecasts of future activity tempered slightly from last month, overall, but continue to suggest confidence in future growth.

It concluded:

The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained negative. Though indicators for future conditions fell from last month, expectations for future growth continue to be positive.

Business conditions survey
Business conditions survey Photograph: Philadelphia Federal Reserve

Here are the weekly jobless claims:

Weekly jobless claims
Weekly jobless claims Photograph: US Dept of Labor

US jobless claims fall

Another sign of the strength of the US economy - and therefore another sign that the Federal Reserve may want to raise interest rates next month - has come from the weekly jobless claims.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefit fell by 16,000 to 278,000 last week, although analysts had been expecting a decline to 275,000. Still, the weekly rate has been below 300,000 for 63 weeks in a row, a sign of the strong jobs market.

The previous week’s claims had been at a 14 month high.

Updated

Commenting on the minutes, economist Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said:

The account of the 20-21 April policy meeting reinforces belief that the ECB is firmly in “wait and see mode” following March’s delivery of a major package of stimulative measures. However, the minutes do indicate that the ECB is prepared to eventually act again if deemed necessary.

The account also brings out the ECB’s determination to strongly defend itself from recent intensified German criticism over its highly expansionary policy.

The new European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters.

The European Central Bank has followed the Fed’s lead, and just released the minutes of its own April meeting.

But rather than hint at rate hikes, the ECB is firing a warning shot at some of its critics, particularly in Germany.

The minutes state:

“There was general agreement that there was a need to counter the perception that monetary policy could no longer contribute to a return of inflation (to the ECB’s target).”

“In light of recent public criticism...in a Member State, it was viewed as important to reaffirm collectively the independence of the ECB in the pursuit of its mandate.”

That independence looked under threat last month, when German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble blamed the ECB for fuelling the popularity of the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic Alternative for Deutschland party.

ECB chief Mario Draghi, though, slapped down such criticism at his April press conference -- pointing out that undermining the ECB simply hampered its ability to drag Europe’s economy forwards.

The minutes also show that the ECB is in ‘wait and see’ mode, having announced new stimulus measures in March. It cautions that:

“patience was needed for the measures to fully unfold over time in terms of output and inflation”.

And the governing council also urged Europe’s politicians to do more, saying they:

“strongly reiterated the need for other policy areas to contribute much more decisively.”

The minutes are online here.

Updated

The old advice to ‘sell in May and go away’ worked quite well in 2015 – if you timed your entry back into the market right.

It’s exactly a year since the Dow Jones hits its record high - closing at 18,312 points. It then suffered quite a dive in August, due to worries over China.

And although it then recovered, it then suffered another selloff around new year before reviving again....

The Dow Jones over the last 12 months.

Last night it closed at 17,526, 4% lower than a year ago:

Cheers!

Over in Frankfurt, ECB chief Mario Draghi will be breaking out the best Prosecco.

The euro has just hit a seven week low against the US dollar, as the greenback continues to benefit from the Fed’s hawkishness.

A weaker euro should help to drag Europe’s inflation rate away from zero, and help exporters too....

Updated

Oh dear.... Asda, Wal-Mart’s UK operation, has endured another shocking few months.

Like-for-like sales across Asda’s stores slumped by 5.7% in the first quarter of 2016. That’s only slightly better than the 5.8% drop in the final quarter of 2015.

Clearly the price-wars and heavy competition in Britain’s supermarkets isn’t letting up...

Shares in supermarket giant Wal-Mart just jumped by 5% in pre-market trading, after it released better-than-expected results.

Wal-Mart posted earnings of $0.98 per share, compared to estimate of $0.88 per share. Revenues also beat forecasts:

The US flag.

Wall Street is expected to join the selloff when it opens at 2.30pm BST (9.30am East Coast time)

The Dow Jones is currently being called down 71 points, or around 0.4%, at 17454. But there is some US data due in the next coouple of hours to maybe shift the mood.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx explains:

Whilst Europe has seen a nasty US rate-hike chatter-inspired decline this morning (the DAX and CAC joining the FTSE with 1.5% and 0.9% plunges respectively), the Dow futures aren’t quite as calamitous just yet. It looks like the US index will open just shy of half a percent lower after the bell, but with Philly Fed manufacturing index and jobless claims figures to come before the session begins. There are also speeches this afternoon from Fed vice-chair William Dudley and FOMC member Stanley Fischer, with investors likely keen to hear their take on the chances of a June rate-hike.

Updated

Despite the hawkish tone of last night’s minutes, most economists don’t actually expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

Derivatives traders are now pricing in a 32% probability that the Fed hikes rates at its June 14-15 meeting. That’s up from 4% last week.

Some analysts believe the Fed will be reluctant to move, just a week before the UK’s EU referendum. Policymakers may also want to hold off until they receive growth figures for the second quarter of 2016, in July.

The team at RBC Capital Markets believe the Fed is signalling its ability to hike, rather than actually setting the scene for action in June.

Here’s some more views:

30 St Mary Axe, also known as the Gherkin.

After three hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is in full-blown retreat - down almost 90 points or 1.4% at 6079.

Mining stocks continue to lead the fallers, with Fresnillo, Anglo American and BHP Billiton all down around 5%.

Royal Dutch Shell has shed 4.5%, due to the oil price dropping back to $47.70 per barrel today. And Royal Mail have dropped 4%, after reporting a 33% drop in pre-tax profits in a ‘challenging’ market.

Chris Beauchamp, Senior Market Analyst at IG, blames “a hawkish set of Fed minutes and poor results from a number of firms” for today’s selloff.

The Fed has put the market on notice for June, and for the moment the market doesn’t like it. Equities have sold off heavily this morning as investors scramble to reallocate funds towards those areas likely to benefit from rising rates in the US – namely the US dollar, Treasuries and also US bank stocks.

As a result, the rug has been pulled from underneath European markets, with the news of the EgyptAir tragedy having an impact on airline and travel names.

Brexit could be good for 1st time buyers

A row of Sold, For Sale and Let By signs.

The battle over Britain’s EU referendum has switched to that dinner party favourite - house prices.

Moodys, the rating agency, has predicted this morning that first-time homebuyers in the UK would benefit from a vote to leave the EU.

They argue that prices would fall following a Brexit vote, and there could also be less competition for housing.

Buy-to-let landlords could also suffer from lower demand, particularly in London if the capital became less attractive to citizens from overseas.

The National Association of Estate Agents also believes that house prices would be hit by a Brexit vote.

It reckons homeowners in London could lose as much as £7,500, while homes elsewhere in the UK could lose £2,300.

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, says the rise in UK consumer spending last month is reassuring:

‘The UK economy’s glass was beginning to look decidedly half-empty, so today’s retail sales figures are a welcome tonic to the gloomy economic mood.

Diminishing confidence ahead of the EU referendum and weak pay growth were expected to take a toll on retail sales. Indeed market researcher GfK’s consumer sentiment indicator hit a 15-month low in April, which looked ominous for today’s figures, but in the event fears that the referendum would have a negative impact on consumer spending proved unfounded.

The pound has hit a three and a half-month high against the euro.

Sterling has hit €1.305, up from €1.301 last night, thanks to those strong retail sales figures.

UK retail sales surge as Brits keep shopping

Here come the latest UK retail sales figures....and they’ve smashed forecasts!

The amount of stuff bought in the shops last month jumped by 4.3% compared with a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics reports. Sales volumes were also 1.3% higher than a month earlier.

There’s no sign of pre-Brexit jitters here. Instead, shoppers may have been spurred into action by the fact that average shop prices have fallen by 2.8% over the last year.

Sales of most items jumped, but there was a 6.3% drop in clothing turnover. That may be due to cold weather in April, which put people off from buying summer garments.

Melanie Richard, ONS Head of Retail Sales, said:

“Clothing stores remain the main drag on growth in the retail sector, with sales hampered by unseasonal weather. However, both the volume and value of sales increased in April compared with March as lower prices boosted sales.

Retail sales details

Updated

The selloff is gathering pace across Europe, with the main indices all losing ground this morning:

Europe's stock markets this morning

Tom Floyd, Senior Sales Trader at Foenix Partner, says investors are taking last night’s Fed minute seriously:

With multiple Fed speakers in recent days failing to convince markets of the possibility of June hikes, yesterday’s Minutes seem to have finally done the trick. The Minutes showed Fed members would deem a June hike as “appropriate” so long as economic data continued to improve. With inflation data trending towards target and improving labour market conditions, the Fed’s remaining issue was convincing markets a rise was a likely scenario.

J.K. Rowling.
J.K. Rowling.

The first Harry Potter readers have long since left the classroom for the world of adult mugglehood.

But Hogwart’s finest continues to work his charms for UK publishers, Bloomsbury. They have reported a 5% jump in revenues for the last year, thanks to a 133% surge in sales of Harry Potter books.

That includes a new illustrated version of “Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone”, which apparently went down terribly well.

Bloomsbury say:

Reviews were consistently good with the Telegraph saying the book was: “a triumph - a book so alive it seems to jump, explode and slither out of your hands as you read.”

We sold rights in Jim Kay’s illustrations in 28 languages. Our re-jacketed Jonny Duddle editions of the seven Harry Potter novels continued to perform strongly in all territories.

An illustrated version of the Chamber of Secrets is coming soon, along with new content from J. K. Rowling for the new edition of Fantastic Beasts & Where to Find Them.

It’s a case of “Revenues leviosa!”, say those wizards at fastFT....

Going up....

Updated

A Thomas Cook travel shop.

Peter Fankhauser, chief executive of Thomas Cook, is also calling for a shake-up in the school holiday system to help parents get cheaper holidays.

He tells reporters that:

“UK authorities should look across the pond to Germany and Switzerland where they agree a staggered start of school holiday dates. That relieves some of the pressure. If you had an agreement from local authorities in the UK to spread the dates... that would help us as well, it would help everybody.”

Fankhauser said Thomas Cook was doing “everything we can” to make holidays more affordable for families who face huge hikes in prices during the school holidays.

To get the best deal: “you have to start early in the cycle”, he said.

Last week, a UK parent won a landmark case in the High Court against his local authority, after he took his daughter away on holiday during term time.

The ruling appeared to give the green light for parents to take their children out of state schools without permission so long as they have a good record of attendance. The government, though, quickly vowed to close this new loophole....

Updated

Thomas Cook hit by terrorism fears

Shares in Thomas Cook have fallen by 15% to a three-year low, after it reported a 5% drop in summer bookings.

The holiday company warned this morning that underlying profits will hit the bottom of analyst expectations. It reported that tourists are shunning Turkey, where a suicide bomber killed 10 Germans in an Istanbul square in January.

Turkey had been Thomas Cook’s second most popular destination last year; in 2016, though, more tourists are choosing the Balearics (up 14%), Canaries (up 23%) and and USA (up 29%).

Thomas Cook says:

Demand for Turkey - our second largest market last year - remains significantly below last year’s levels. This has impacted our German Airlines business in particular.

Demand for holidays to Belgium is also down, following the Brussels terrorist attacks in March.

And that sent shares down to 75p, the lowest since March 2013.

Thomas Cook's share price
Thomas Cook’s share price Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Updated

FTSE 100 takes a dive

The London stock market has shed 50 points, or 0.8%, at the start of trading.

Mining shares are leading the selloff, with silver miner Fresnillo sliding by 5%.

That’s because the prospect of higher US interest rates is pushing up the US dollar, and driving down commodity prices.

Top fallers in the FTSE 100 this morning
Top fallers in the FTSE 100 this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Other European markets are also dropping, with the German DAX shedding 1% and the French CAC down 0.5%.

Asian stock markets fall

Most Asian stock markets are in the red today after the Federal Reserve put a June interest rate rise on the table.

The Singapore and Hong Kong indices are leading the selloff

Investors are baulked at the prospect of tightening of monetary policy, as Andrew Sullivan, sales trader at Haitong Securities explains (via Associated Press)

“Markets have looked for government stimulus as a reason for investing rather than good company economics or fundamentals. Obviously therefore if there’s less chance of stimulus people are left wondering what to do.

“Yes it will be a shock to people, and I’m sure there will be a knee jerk reaction but the reality is we are nowhere near normal rates.”

Only Japan has avoided any damage -- because Tokyo traders are pleased to see the yen weakening against the US dollar.

Asian stock markets today
Asian stock markets today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The Agenda: Fed's June warning looms over City

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial market, the eurozone and business.

Coming up today...

We’ll be tracking the reaction to last night’s Federal Reserve minutes, which showed that America’s central bank could be ready to raise interest rates next month.

The Fed surprised investors by revealing that many policymakers believe a June rate hike is appropriate, if economic data over the next few weeks justifies it.

As we covered in last night’s liveblog, the minutes of April’s meeting showed that:

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen and inflation making progress toward the [Fed’s] 2% objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the [Fed] to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.”

And that has sent investors scrambling to adjust their expectations - as many had only expected one rate rise in 2016, or even none at all.

The minutes also sent the dollar spiking last night, and is likely to weigh on European markets today.

Also coming up today …

  • 9.30am: UK retail sales figures for April. Economists are expecting a rise of 0.7%, following a shock 1.6% tumble in March
  • 12.30pm: The European Central Bank releases the minutes of its last meeting. Analysts will look for details of its new stimulus programme, and signs of dissent among the governing council.
  • 1.30pm: The latest weekly US jobless report, showing how many people filed new unemployment claims last week
  • Top Federal Reserve policymakers Stanley Fischer and William Dudley are speaking later today.
  • 6pm: Gertjan Vlieghe, member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, is delivering a speech in London

There’s quite a flurry of financial results this morning, including: Thomas Cook, Mothercare, Bloomsbury Publishing, Royal Mail, drinks firm Britvic, construction firm Balfour Beatty, financial services group Hargreaves Lansdown and asset manager 3i. We’ll pick the most interesting bits out...

There could be fireworks in Germany today, where Deutsche Bank is holding its AGM:

And leading finance minister are heading to Japan, for a G7 meeting, but I don’t think there’s any action today.

Updated

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