European shares slip back
It was a down day for European stock markets as investors decided to cash in after Tuesday’s gains inspired by the signs of progress in the Greek financial crisis.
Some disappointing results from the US - notable Disney and Macy’s - sent the US market lower and undermined sentiment elsewhere.
Banking shares were also under pressure, especially in Italy after a couple of disappointing updates.
But a rise in oil prices after a surprise drop in US crude inventories helped the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 outperform its peers, and even record a slight increase on the day. The final scores showed:
- The FTSE 100 finished up 5.84 points or 0.09% at 6162.49
- Germany’s Dax dropped 0.7% to 9975.32
- France’s Cac closed down 0.5% at 4316.67
- Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.32% to 17,698.08
- Spain’s Ibex ended down 1.27% at 8663.9
- In Greece, the Athens market lost 1.63% to 619.06
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 125 points or 0.7%.
On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
More signs that Greece may be heading in the right direction. Bloomberg reports:
The European Central Bank could discuss restoring Greek banks’ access to its refinancing lines as soon as their June 2 policy meeting, people familiar with the matter said.
A new waiver on Greece’s junk-rated debt will probably be proposed by the ECB board once a staff-level agreement between the government and auditors representing creditor institutions is reached, the people said, asking not to be named as the matter is confidential. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment. The Governing Council doesn’t have to accept board proposals.
Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday signaled they could sign off on Greece’s bailout review at their next meeting on May 24 once the country has legislated the final actions required for loan disbursements. Greek collateral has been without a waiver since February last year, forcing the nation’s banks onto Emergency Liquidity Assistance, when the new government said it wouldn’t complete its aid program at the time because of the austerity measures required.
The full story is here.
Here’s the complete comment from Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at FOREX.com, on the US inventory numbers:
The American Petroleum Institute got it completely wrong. Contrary to the API, the official data from the US Department of Energy, which has just been released, shows that crude stockpiles dropped by a surprisingly large 3.4 million barrels last week, not increase.
The drawdown may well have been due to the wildfires in Canada as the latter’s main export market is the US. Indeed, US crude oil imports were down by a good 5,000 barrels per day from the previous week, according to the DoE. Imports are likely to fall further this week because of the significant reduction of oil output in Canada. News that US oil production also fell, down 0.3% week-over-week, provided further support to prices.
Brent crude is now up 1.7% at $46.33 a barrel following the fall in US oil inventories. David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco, said:
Crude oil flew higher following the release of the latest inventory data from the EIA. This showed a fall of 3.4 million barrels compared with an expected build of 100,000 barrels.
Nevertheless, the charts suggest that crude is struggling to break above resistance which comes in around $46 for WTI and $48 for Brent. There’s support for both contracts around the $42 per barrel level. Oil could be consolidating now ahead of another leg higher. Crude has put in an impressive rally since the beginning of the year and needs to build a base before it can push up further. However, an alternative view is that crude is losing its upside momentum.
Temporary supply disruptions won’t offset the likelihood of increased production the closer we get to $50 per barrel. Meanwhile, the outlook for demand growth is a bit foggier now as there’s increasing evidence that global economic activity is slowing once again.
#WTI oil has jumped on this surprise as you would expect. The draw may have been due to the fire in Canada (main oil export is to the US)^FR
— FOREX.com (@FOREXcom) May 11, 2016
Indeed, US crude oil imports were down by 5,000 barrels per day from the previous week, according to the EIA ^FR
— FOREX.com (@FOREXcom) May 11, 2016
These EIA figures do not match figures from the American Petroleum Institute, which on Tuesday reported a rise in inventories.
#CRUDE: API got it completely wrong. The official EIA data shows crude stockpiles DROPPED by 3.4 million barrels last week not increase! ^FR
— FOREX.com (@FOREXcom) May 11, 2016
US crude stocks fall
Instead of an expected rise in weekly crude stocks, the latest report from the Energy Information Administration shows a surprise fall.
Crude inventories dropped 3.41m barrels to 539.98m compared to the expected 0.71m barrel increase.
Weekly gasoline stocks fell by 1.23m and distillate stocks by 1.65m, both bigger than expected declines.
Over in Spain, the country has received more than €10.5bn of demand for a €3bn 50-year bond it plans to issue.
Meanwhile Chancellor George Osborne has told a select committee that the Treasury and Bank of England are doing a “significant amount” of Brexit contingency planning.
A reminder you can follow the select committee on the EU referendum in the Politics live blog.
The NIESR has the UK GDP economic growth at 0.3% in the 3 months to April. Something for the Bank of England to think about as it votes!
— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) May 11, 2016
UK economic growth slows
UK economic growth slowed down in the three months to April, partly due to uncertainty over the EU referendum, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
It said UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the three months to April, compared to 0.4% in the first three months of the year and 0.6% late last year. Researcher Jack Meaning said:
UK economic growth continues to be subdued compared with the rates we saw at the end of last year.
Some of this slowdown is undoubtedly a result of heightened uncertainty around the impending EU referendum, and so is likely to be temporary should the UK decide to remain in the EU after June 23.
Updated
Wall Street opens lower
US markets have fallen back in early trading, with poor results from Disney and department store group Macy’s weighing on sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 84 points or 0.48% after a strong performance on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 has opened down 0.2%.
European markets have also edged lower, with Germany’s Dax down 0.65% and France’s Cac 0.61% lower. The FTSE 100 is performing better, down just 0.12%.
Osborne at Treasury select committee on EU referendum
Just a reminder, Chancellor George Osborne is about to be questioned by the Treasury Select Committee on the European referendum.
My colleague Andrew Sparrow is following the hearing over at the Politics live blog:
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Italian Banks Are Crashing (Again) After Bad-Loan Writedowns Soar https://t.co/Q2gHT8YDDT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 11, 2016
Shares in European banks are on the slide today, with Italian institutions under particular pressure following losses or falling profits from Banco Popolare and Banco Popolare di Milano.
The FTSE Italia banking index is currently down 3.68%.
Here’s Jill Treanor’s piece on the problems at Italy’s banks:
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Back with UK interest rates, and a Reuters poll of economists shows they continue to expect the first hike - of 25 basis points - will not come until the first quarter of 2017.
They forecast rates will be 1% at the end of 2017 and 1.5% at the end of the following year, lower than previous expectation. In the last survey in April the figures were 1.25% and 1.75% respectively.
They cited the risk of Brexit and the fragile global economy as the biggest threats to UK growth this year, expecting it to increase by 0.4% to 0.6% a quarter to the third quarter of 2017.
The oil price has recovered from its earlier falls, which were prompted by continuing concerns about oversupply as Canadian oil firms restarted production following the Fort McMurray wildfires.
But, ahead of the US weekly inventory data, Brent is now up 0.8% at $45.89 a barrel as Shell announced the closure of a key Nigerian pipeline, which is likely to push the country’s production to its lowest level for more than two decades.
The poor UK data comes, of course, a day ahead of the latest Bank of England decision on interest rates. They are expected to be kept on hold but one former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee believes a cut would be in order:
Pretty clear MPC should now be cutting I would be voting for 50bp cut tmrw because of manufac recession bad PMIs lmkt & Brexit uncertainty
— Danny Blanchflower (@D_Blanchflower) May 11, 2016
Hat-tip to the Independent’s Ben Chu for this chart, showing how Britain’s factory output has gone into reverse in recent months:
Charts that show Osborne's March of the Makers going nowhere & that demand is the problem: https://t.co/L7C4ySXYT0 pic.twitter.com/hENFaMIGPc
— Ben Chu (@BenChu_) May 11, 2016
Kallum Pickering of Berenberg Bank confirms that Britain’s factory sector is in recession again:
This is the third time the industrial sector has entered a technical recession since 2008. After sharp declines during the Lehman-recession, in 2011 the sector contracted again for six quarters in a row.
He blames weak global demand, and the strength of the pound.
Production industries are export oriented and are thus highly sensitive to changes in global demand and exchange rates. Since 2011, goods exports to the EU – the UK’s largest export market – have fallen by 20%.
As this chart shows, industrial export orders are also below long-term averages, and the recent turbulence in the markets won’t have helped:
Vestager says she weighed the commission's decision on 3-o2 deal and it weighs 2.56kg. "It's a very heavy decision" not affected by politics
— Sean Farrell (@farrell_s) May 11, 2016
David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, says Britain’s manufacturing sector is in ‘long-term decline’.
He blamed problems at home, and abroad:
“Despite a modest recovery in March, longer-term trends show that both manufacturing and total industrial output remain in negative territory.
While adverse global conditions remain a major challenge for manufacturing, this is now being exacerbated by a slowdown in the domestic economy
Here’s the Guardian’s news story on the O2 takeover being red-carded.
Newsflash from Brussels: The EC has decide to block the £10.5bn takeover of mobile phone operator O2.
Competition chief Margrethe Vestager has concluded that UK consumers would suffer if CK Hutchison, which already owns the Three network, also got hold of O2.
Why have we prohibited Hutchison's proposed acquisition of Telefonica UK? Factsheet: https://t.co/BbnqZTDdfC pic.twitter.com/rmpKQ9jdI3
— European Commission (@EU_Commission) May 11, 2016
UK industry is back in recession
Britain’s industrial sector is back in recession, for the third time in eight years.
Today’s industrial production report shows that production shrank by 0.4% in January-March quarter.
That the second quarterly contraction in a row, following steep declines in autumn 2015.
Britain's industrial sector has fallen back into recession for the first time since 2012 https://t.co/DlPnA8bEUz pic.twitter.com/HquPQxxfZP
— fastFT (@fastFT) May 11, 2016
Updated
EEF: Industrial recovery in doubt
We flagged up earlier that Germany, France and the Netherlands had also reported rough industrial production data this week.
So with Britain’s manufacturing output falling 1.9% in the last year, there are concerns that the European recovery could be in trouble.
Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, says:
“There isn’t too much in the data to lift economic spirits as a small increase in manufacturing output in March doesn’t change the picture of an overall weak start to the year. As ever, it’s a mixed picture across different sectors with a bit more evidence that the sectors hardest hit by the oil price collapse are now bottoming out while construction related sectors seem to be holding up.
“But, in line with the early warning signal from the PMI and the drop in consumer confidence, consumer facing sectors, including motor vehicles, are seeing weaker production trends at the start of the year. Whether this proves to be temporary is yet to be seen but UK manufacturers are far from alone in seeing this trend with other data from Europe suggesting that the industrial recovery is far from secure.”
This handy chart shows how Britain’s industrial sector fared in the last three months -- not a pretty picture, alas:
UK production falls -0.4%q/q in Q1. Always a good sign when "miscellaneous" is your fastest growing sub-sector... pic.twitter.com/pn0so1exeb
— RBS Economics (@RBS_Economics) May 11, 2016
Today’s report also shows that Britain’s manufacturing output has shrunk by 0.4% over the last quarter.
That’s a pretty rough start to 2016, suggesting that the slowdown in the global economy hurt factories.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight remarks:
The march of the makers was a veritable crawl in March and they went backwards over the first quarter!
UK factory output suffers biggest annual fall since 2013
Britain’s manufacturing sector has suffered its biggest annual fall in output in almost three years, in another signal that the economy is weakening.
Manufacturing output in March this year was 1.9% lower than in March 2015, according to the Office for National Statistics new healthcheck on the sector.
It’s the biggest year-on-year drop since May 2013.
The fall was led by a 4% drop in the manufacture of basic metals & metal products.
The ONS says that iron and steel production has shrunk particularly sharply over the last year.
The largest contribution to the fall within this sub-sector came from the manufacture of basic iron & steel, which decreased by 37.3% compared with a year ago and contributed -0.3 percentage points to total production. Anecdotal evidence suggested shutdowns within the industry were contributing factors to the decrease.
That could include the Redcar plant in the North East of England, which closed down last autumn.
On a monthly basis, manufacturing output crept up by just 0.1% in March compared to April, weaker than the 0.3% which economists expected.
The wider measure of industrial production, which includes mining, rose by 0.3% month-on-month but was only 0.1% higher than a year ago.
Another blow to the government’s ‘March of the Makers’. Although, as this chart shows, UK manufacturing has been pretty stagnant for almost 20 years:
Updated
The boss of Britain’s biggest housebuilder has warned that it could struggle to find workers if the UK leaves the European Union.
David Thomas, CEO of Barratt Developments, said this morning:
“We have a significant part of our labour force, particularly within the London market, coming from continental Europe — the free movement of labour in the European market is a positive from our point of view.”
FastFT have more details:
EU exit would hit workforce says Barratt chief https://t.co/UcwqJk9Nv8
— fastFT (@fastFT) May 11, 2016
Oil price falls
Oversupply fears are dragging the oil price down again this morning, and helping to push shares down too.
Brent crude has shed 1%, to $45.07 per barrel, with traders citing fresh fears about oil gluts.
A report from the US Energy Information Administration this afternoon is expected to show that oil stockpiles have risen again, due to weaker demand and persistent overproduction.
That situation could worsen again soon as Canadian oil firms are restarting production following the Fort McMurray wildfires, which forced them to stop pumping.
ECB facing German criticism
Over in Germany, opposition is mounting against the European Central Bank’s plan to stop making €500 notes.
The ECB was already falling out of favour among many Germans, who are cross that record low interest rates are hurting savers. The decision to phase out the eurozone’s largest note has thrown fuel on the fire, with critics claiming there’s a secret plan to abolish cash.
A protest against the move has been called for this Saturday, as Bloomberg explains:
A group called Stoppbargeldverbot -- Stop The Ban on Cash -- affiliated to the insurgent anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, has organized the Frankfurt demonstration for May 14. Its leaders see a creeping effort by the German government, commercial banks, the European Union and the ECB to eliminate cash and to subject citizens to the electronic surveillance of their financial affairs.
The ECB says printing of 500-euro notes is being halted because of concerns it facilitates criminal activities. The note will stay legal tender, other denominations will remain and Draghi has said cash will continue to have a role in payments.
Nevertheless, Clemens Fuest, president of the Munich-based Ifo institute, argued on May 4 that the decision “undermines trust” in the central bank.
“Why should we not press for this decision with the 500-euro note to be revoked?” Max Otte, author of one of several books on the threat to cash published in German in the last 12 months, said in an interview. “The anti-cash lobby is very strong, and it’s also an anti-citizen lobby, an anti-freedom lobby.”
More here: Draghi Cast as Cash Conspirator Foreshadows German Clash on Exit
Today’s UK industrial production report comes hot on the heels of some poor data from Europe.
Yesterday Germany, France and the Netherlands all reported disappointing figures; French factory output fell 0.3%, it was down 1.3% in Germany and an alarming 2.4% in the Netherlands.
The figures suggest that eurozone growth may be slipping, after starting the year relatively strongly.
Eurozone economic recovery showing signs of losing steam as industrial production down in both Germany & France in March
— Mark Brumby (@brumbymark) May 11, 2016
Markets fall back
European markets are falling in early(ish) trading, as City investors brace for today’s UK industrial production report in an hour’s time.
Mining shares are up in London, led by Randgold (+2.3%), but banks and travel companies are falling.
Conner Campbell of Spreadex reckons yesterday’s burst of optimism over Greece’s bailout has petered out:
The Eurozone has had a pretty fantastic start to the week, the DAX crossing 10000 as investors displayed their relief at the signs of progress in regards to the Greek debt debate.
Yet the region’s indices have begun to tick back this Wednesday, the DAX and CAC slipping 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. With little on the agenda until Friday’s GDP data dump, and the post-Eurogroup enthusiasm unable to sustain itself for a third day in arrow, the Eurozone indices may struggle build on their early in the week spurt as the day continues.
Updated
The agenda: UK industrial production and growth figures
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After two days of Greek debt drama, today looks rather quieter, I’m afraid.
Only two items on the agenda, which will show how well (or badly) Britain’s economy is performing:
At 9.30am we get the UK industrial production report for March. Economists are expecting a small rise in industrial output, perhaps 0.3%, after a weak February.
A disappointing number, though, will reignite concerns that the UK manufacturers are suffering from weaker overseas demand.
And as CMC Market’s Michael Hewson flags up, the steel industry has been finding life particularly tough, with thousands of jobs now on the line as Tata seeks a buyer for its British plants.
We already know from the January and February data that manufacturing has come under pressure in recent months, with the Tata steel headlines keeping it in the forefront of the public’s thinking, while the most recent PMI data has also been weak.
Then at 3pm, the NIESR thinktank publishes its estimate for UK growth over the last three months (February to April).
That may show that concerns over June’s Brexit referendum have hurt the economy.
We’ll also be watching for Greek developments, and chewing through results from housebuilder Barratt, brewer Carlsberg, carmaker Toyota and bookmaker William Hill.
Hopefully something else will come up too....
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