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The Guardian - UK
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Graeme Wearden (until 2.20pm) and Nick Fletcher (now)

IMF urges action to prevent 'economic derailment' - as it happened

The IMF has called for “bold spirit of action” to keep world economic recovery on course
The IMF has called for “bold spirit of action” to keep world economic recovery on course Photograph: Tim Sloan/AFP/Getty Images

European markets close lower

A combination of weak Chinese export figures hitting commodity companies and a falling oil price has sent European stock markets lower for the second day running. The disappointing trade figures from China renewed fears of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, although this was tempered by the thought that the country’s central bank could be prompted to step in again with further stimulus measures.

Investors were also unsettled by a fall in oil prices following comments from Goldman Sachs that the recent rally was unjustified, and suggestions from Kuwait that it would not join in an output freeze unless other major producers, notably Iran, agreed. Iran has only just returned to export markets after sanctions were lifted and would rather ramp up production again rather than agree cuts.

So Brent crude, after earlier climbing as high as $41.48 a barrel, is now down nearly 3% at $39.77. The final scores in Europe showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished down 56.96 points or 0.92% at 6125.44
  • Germany’s Dax dropped 0.88% to 9692.82
  • France’s Cac closed down 0.86% at 4404.02
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.23% to 18,017.56
  • Spain’s Ibex ended 0.53% lower at 8740.3
  • But in Greece, the Athens market added 0.76% to 563.67

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 46 points or 0.28%.

On that note it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Come to that, the US Federal Reserve does not have an easy decision to make at this month’s meeting. Many believe its decision to raise rates in December was a mistake, and the chances of it hiking again in March seemed to be getting slimmer. But it could yet act:

Meanwhile the European Central Bank has its own dilemma on Thursday, in terms of what further stimulus measures it unveils. In December it ended up falling short of expectations:

The Bank of England is still more likely to raise rates than cut them over the next two years, according to monetary policy committee member Martin Weale, despite the recent financial turmoil.

In a speech at the University of Nottingham Weale, who backed a rate rise in 2014, said the Bank had other tools to boost the economy if necessary. More quantitative easing could be used, with the Bank possibly buying private sector assets as well as government bonds.

But he said a rate cut below 0.5% could also be made if needed.

More big bonuses for bankers.

Royal Bank of Scotland – the bailed-out bank which is 73% owned by the UK taxpayer and recently reported its eighth consecutive year of annual losses – has handed its top management team bonuses in shares worth £17.4m, writes Jill Treanor.

The full story is here:

Markets continue to head lower as the oil price falls and mining stocks suffer in the wake of the Chinese trade data. Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, said:

China’s trade data provided the perfect excuse for some nifty profit-taking (and hearty back-slapping) for anyone with the bravery to buy into mining shares back in January. Since then the sector has sky-rocketed, but with Goldmans calling the end of the rally in raw materials, these hardy souls can hardly be blamed for taking some of their gains off the table. Had such dire trade figures arrived during the turmoil of last August, or indeed during the slumps of January and February, we may have seen a bigger reaction.

As it was, the market seems content to write the data off as in the past, with recent currency depreciation and signs of stimulus likely to make next month’s numbers look much better.

Sterling is also heading lower:

Oil has been slipping back from its highs and adding to the negative sentiment, although Brent crude is still above the $40 a barrel mark.

A note earlier from Goldman Sachs suggested the recent rally in crude may be overdone, with the market still oversupplied and prices needing to fall further for stocks to shrink substantially.

Meanwhile hopes of a cut in output were dampened by comments from Kuwait. The country’s acting oil minister Anas al-Saleh said it would only commit to a production freeze if major suppliers including Iran agreed to join the agreement. Iran of course has only recently been allowed back on the export market after sanctions were lifted and is understandably keen to keep production going.

If some producers failed to join the freeze, Reuters reported him saying:

I’ll go full power if there’s no agreement. Every barrel I produce, I’ll sell.

Brent is currently down 1.7% at $40.16 a barrel having earlier reached $41.48.

Updated

Wall Street opens lower

With global markets under pressure after the disappointing Chinese export figures, it is no surprise Wall Street is following suit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 84 points or 0.48% while the S&P 500 opened 0.47% lower and Nasdaq fell 0.7%.

ECB president Mario Draghi has a number of options for further stimulus measures at this week’s central bank meeting and is under pressure not to disappoint the markets again (as happened in December), says Richard Falkenhall, senior foreign exchange strategist at Nordic bank SEB:

Mario Draghi and the ECB are expected to deliver more stimulus on Thursday. However, Draghi may not want to push too much, preferring instead to avoid risking a split vote in the Governing Council. Given the large menu of options, the outcome is very difficult to predict in detail. New staff projections will revise the ECB’s macro outlook, especially for inflation, to be significantly lower. Falling inflation expectations and continued downward revisions to inflation projections increase risks of second-round effects. This will put the ECB under considerable pressure to deliver more, not only to boost growth and inflation, but also to avoid disappointing already high market expectations, which would results in tighter financial conditions.

Our main scenario is a 10 basis point deposit rate cut, the introduction of a two-tiered deposit rate system and the announcement of an additional €15bn in monthly asset purchases. The two-tiered system will alleviate cost pressures on banks and keep hopes of further rate cuts alive. For now, we expect this will largely satisfy markets, resulting in only limited market reactions in such a scenario.

Mario Draghi.
Mario Draghi. Photograph: Francois Walschaerts/AP

Updated

Over to Greece, and representatives of the country’s creditors may be heading back to Athens to restart work on reviewing the progress of its bailout, but they may struggle to get around the place later this week:

David Lipton ended his speech with a Churchillian call for better monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to tackle the economic crisis.

Now is the time to decisively support economic activity and put the global economy on a sounder footing. This requires some tough choices, with advanced economies in particular needing to step up to the plate through the three-pronged approach I have described, as well as measures to make the global financial system more efficient and resilient.

Winston Churchill said, “I never worry about action, but only inaction.” This is one of those moments where action—concerted action— is needed.

This, Lipton argued, would help to heal the banking sector, provide support to emerging economies, and help countries to lower their debt-to-GDP ratios over time.

Here’s the full speech: Policy Imperatives for Boosting Global Growth and Prosperity

IMF: Governments must act to avoid economic derailment

The deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund is urging governments to take “bold” action to steer the world economy away from potential crisis.

David Lipton, First Deputy managing director of the Fund, is telling an audience in Washington DC that risks to the global recovery have risen.

He says:

Global economic recovery continues, but we are clearly at a delicate juncture, where risk of economic derailment has grown.

Lipton cites the volatile financial markets and low commodity prices as key factors, along with the concerns that governments and central bankers have run out of ideas, or enthusiasm.

These concerns are partly being fed by a perception that policymakers in many economies have run out of ammunition or lost the resolve to deploy it. For the sake of the global economy, it is imperative that advanced and developing countries dispel this dangerous notion by reviving the bold spirit of action and cooperation that characterized the early years of the recovery effort.

And crucially, he says governments should use their tax and spending muscle to prevent another global downturn.

Fiscal polices should be made “more growth-friendly” where possible, argues Lipton. And countries with “fiscal space” should use that flexibility to boost infrastructure spending, or by cutting taxes.

That might push up government debt levels, but Lipton argues that it’s well worth considering.

We know that infrastructure investment can be particularly beneficial, not only because it is deeply needed in some advanced economies, but as it has positive spillover effects to the rest of the economy. Raising wages and tax cuts to promote spending can also be effective, particularly in countries that have current account surpluses.

These need to be carefully designed and directed to those that are most likely to spend the proceeds.

Treasury Select CommitteeConservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (right) asks Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney and his deputy Sir Jon Cunliffe a question during the Treasury Select Committee in the House of Commons, London. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Tuesday March 8, 2016. The Bank of England took centre stage in the increasingly bitter EU referendum battle after it signalled concerns that the vote could trigger panic in financial markets. See PA story POLITICS EU. Photo credit should read: PA Wire
Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (right), crossing swords with Bank of England Mark Carney. Photograph: PA

The Bank of England is now “embroiled” in the Brexit debate following today’s punchy session at parliament, says our economics editor Larry Elliott.

He writes:

Mark Carney described as “entirely unfounded” the suggestion from the pro-Brexit Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg that the Bank was being politically partisan and jeopardising its reputation for “Olympian detachment” by emphasising the pros but not the cons of EU membership.

Giving evidence to MPs on the Treasury select committee, the governor provided backing for David Cameron by warning that there would be short-term costs to the UK from a decision to leave the EU in June – including weaker investment, lower consumer spending and the relocation of foreign-owned banks to Ireland or continental Europe.

Carney said the deal negotiated by Cameron last month had addressed the issues identified by the Bank as necessary to ensure the UK’s monetary and financial stability.

However, Carney had to fend off an attack from Rees-Mogg, who said it was “beneath the dignity” of the governor to be making “speculative” comments about the beneficial impact of EU membership.

Here’s Larry’s full report

Oil hits three-month high

Oil prices are continuing their recent recovery, despite today’s Chinese export data.

Brent crude has hit a new three-month high, up 1.1% at $41.31 per barrel, having broken though the $40 mark yesterday.

Quite a recovery, from the $27.10 touched in mid-January.

Some analysts predict that oil will weaken again, though, given the oversupply issues dogging the market:

The 25% tumble in Chinese exports in February continues to loom over the markets.

The timing of the Lunar New Year may be a factor, but the underlying theme is that China’s new growth targets could soon be in trouble.

Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments, reckons Beijing may need to do more to encourage consumer spending, and aid the transition away from manufacturing.

This export slump again underlines the huge challenges that China’s export-driven model is facing and how domestic demand needs to grow to take up the slack in order to maintain the growth momentum.

If this does not happen, China’s growth is likely to slow considerably and be below the 6.5% target set by the government this week.”

Mark Carney’s grilling has ended, after the governor warned that Brexit was the biggest single “domestic risk” to Britain’s economy.

If you missed it, Andy Sparrow’s liveblog has all the details:

European finance ministers looked in good spirits this morning, as they gathered for today’s ECOFIN meeting.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs the eurogroup of euzone finance ministers, even indulged in a little light horseplay with Greece’s Euclid Tsakalotos.

We trust this isn’t the EU’s new negotiating strategy with Athens....

(L-R) French Economy, Finance and Trade Minister Michel Sapin, Dutch Finance Minister and president of Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos (2ndR) and Luxembourg’s Finance Minister Pierre Gramegna share a light moment prior to an Economic and Financial Affairs meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels on March 8, 2015. / AFP / JOHN THYSJOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images
Dijsselbloem (orange tie) gesturing to Tsakalotos, as France’s Michel Sapin (left) and Luxembourg’s Pierre Gramegna look on. Photograph: John Thys/AFP/Getty Images
Gramegna, Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt (middle left) and Sapin chat with European commissioner Pierre Moscovici.
Gramegna, Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt (middle left) and Sapin chat with European commissioner Pierre Moscovici. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is attending the meeting too.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is attending the meeting too. Photograph: John Thys/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Ouch.

US small business confidence falls

America’s small firms have suffered a drop in confidence last month, according to new data from the US.

Fears over sales growth have hit spending plans, and deterred firms from taking on new staff, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

Its optimism index has dipped to 92.9, from 94.2 in January, with every measure of confidence deteriorating.

It’s not a massive slump. However, it does suggest that economic conditions in the world’s largest economy may have deteriorated in February. Talk of global downturns, and the sight of shares sliding on Wall Street, won’t have helped.

Some theories are just too good to not be true. And here’s a prime example.

Some experts reckon the iron ore price surged 19% yesterday because China’s horticulture industry wants steel mills to shut down. For five months.

That would stop them pumping pollution into the sky, and mean their upcoming garden show would enjoy nice sunny skies, not clouds of smog.

By parliamentary standards, the Treasury Committee’s session on the EU referendum is a real punch-up.

Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, kicked the session off by insisting that that the BoE wasn’t making a recommendation on Brexit.

But he swiftly got a kicking of his own, from Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, who accused Carney of “speculative pro-EU comments”.

In between flashing death stares at Rees-Mogg, Carney insisted he wouldn’t allow that claim to stand, as aides wondered whether they should have brought sponges and a towel.

In between the sparring, Carney argued that Britain’s renegotiated settlement would help the UK’s financial stability. Here’s the details:

It’s still being streamed live, here.

These charts from Bloomberg show the scale of the Chinese export slump last month:

Chinese exports to February 2016

The decline was worryingly broad-based, suggesting a significant tailing off in global demand:

Chinese exports to February 2016

Updated

Traders are nervous today ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, where fresh stimulus measures could be announced.

Fears that Mario Draghi might disappoint the markets (as he did in December) have pushed the euro back above $1.1.

Joshua Mahony of IG says this anxiety is being compounded by the poor trade data from China:

European stock markets have started the day on a very shaky footing, with the DAX in particular falling sharply following a surprisingly bad batch of trade data overnight. Despite the incredible rally in iron ore yesterday, the 25% fall in exports and 14% drop in imports for February prove it pays to be apprehensive about the Chinese growth story for now. With China representing the second largest export market for the eurozone, this continued slowdown will no doubt worry ECB members ahead of Thursday’s meeting.

It is clear markets have learnt their lessons from the December ECB meeting, with euro shorts and DAX longs being closed out ahead of the release. Despite the high likeliness of action from the ECB, there is no guarantee of the direction markets will move and thus traders are unlikely to be as bold this time, after being burnt three months ago. Deposit rate cuts seem the likeliest, yet this is unlikely to appease QE thirsty markets which have proven to be relatively single minded in their view of what represents a satisfactory policy boost.

After two hours of trading, European markets are steadily in the red following today’s rough Chinese trade data.

The FTSE 100 is still down around 1%, and there are chunkier losses across the continent where the French CAC and German DAX have both lost around 1.5%.

European stock markets this morning
European stock markets this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, says investors are worried by the 25% year-on-year tumble in Chinese exports last month.

“Equity markets are in the red again this morning, with disappointing overnight Chinese trade data showing plunging February exports (-25%) serving to spook investors who are already concerned about the state of global growth.

The market reaction is in stark contrast to the habitual cheering about bad data implying more stimulus, and the Lunar New Year may explain the big drop.”

Carney testifies on Brexit

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has just begun giving evidence to the Treasury committee on the UK’s EU referendum.

You can watch it live here.

Our Politics Liveblog is tracking all the action:

Updated

Oxford Economics have just issued a new report on the EU referendum.

It has found that a vote for Brexit will knock over 1% off the size of the UK economy, and also hit share prices.

Here’s the details:

A scenario run on the Oxford Global Model suggests that Brexit would leave the level of UK GDP 1.3 percentage points lower by Q2 2018 compared with our baseline forecast that the UK votes to stay in the EU. A vote to leave would mainly shock business confidence but consumers would be adversely affected too. Exporters in price-sensitive sectors would benefit from a weaker exchange rate.

Market pricing suggests that sterling could initially fall by around 15% before recovering some of its losses, while the heightened uncertainty would also be expected to drive a sharp drop in equity prices in H2 2016.

Brexit would present something of a dilemma for policymakers. While a weaker pound would cause inflation to initially spike upwards, we would expect the MPC to look through this and cutBank Rate in order to support activity. And with the UK likely to retain its reputation as a safe haven, this would also see gilt yields stay lower for longer.

Weaker growth would also put the Chancellor in breach of the fiscal mandate, though we would expect him to plead extenuating circumstances, rather than tighten policy and potentially exacerbate the slowdown.

They also reckon, though, that Britain will vote to stay in the EU.

Updated

IMF to issue Brexit report

The International Monetary Fund is preparing a report on the impact of Britain voting to leave the European Union.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde announced the plan this morning, and also appeared to reveal that it will warn against Brexit.

Union anger over Npower job cuts

A sign hangs outside an npower building in Solihull, Britain March 7, 2016. RWE’s British unit npower plans to cut around 2,500 jobs as it seeks to improve its financial performance, Sky News reported on Sunday, citing unidentified sources. REUTERS/Darren Staples

Unions are seeking urgent talks with Npower after the energy company confirmed plans to cut 2,400 jobs.

This morning’s announcement comes two days after the news leaked to the press – and UNISON General Secretary Dave Prentis says staff deserve better.

“Npower bosses are compounding the anxiety for staff by refusing to meet the unions nationally to discuss this so-called recovery plan, to talk about how to protect jobs and avoid compulsory redundancies. We’re calling for an emergency meeting so we can work jointly on finding a way out of the mess the company currently finds itself in.

“The workforce will be hoping that the worst is now behind Npower, and that in future employees are the first to know if jobs are under threat.“

Foxtons estate agent signs advertise residential properties as ‘Sold’ in the Stockwell area of London.

The slowdown in London’s prime property market has hit profits at estate agent chain Foxtons.

The group, known for its garish Minis and pushy sales techniques, has posted a 2.6% drop in pre-tax profits in 2015.

It says property sales transactions levels in London “remained subdued” in 2015, partly because May’s General Election deterred some buyers.

It also warned that the uncertainty over Britain’s EU membership could hit demand this year, as....

...it is too early to predict how transaction volumes may be impacted by recent changes to the tax regime and the short term political and economic uncertainty caused by the UK referendum on leaving the European Union.

Yesterday an investment firm warned that London’s top-end property market was cooling, partly because so many luxury flats are coming onto the market.

Updated

An image of the national flag of GermanyCTEWPR An image of the national flag of Germany

German factories have surprised analysts, in a good way, by posted a 3.3% jump in production in January.

That’s much stronger than expected, and the biggest increase since September 2009.

Ralph Solveen, head of economic research at Commerzbank, called it “a good start” for Germany, but cautioned:

“We don’t think that this will start a lasting uptrend.”

Yesterday, German factories reported a 0.1% drop in new orders in January, which could suggest production will be weaker this spring.

Burberry lifted by takeover talk

Fashion chain Burberry is defying today’s selloff, though.

Its shares jumped by 5%, after it emerged last night that a ‘mystery investor’ has been quietly snaffling up shares.

A takeover battle could be looming, perhaps from a rival luxury brand or even a private equity operation.

Updated

FTSE 100 hit by Chinese woes

London’s stock markets is falling in early trading, as traders get another dose of Chinese angst.

The FTSE 100 fell 60 points, or 1%, at the open to hit 6123 points.

Mining stocks, who are dependent on emerging markets for growth, are leading the selloff:

Top fallers in the FTSE 100 this morning
Top fallers in the FTSE 100 this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Conner Campbell says the 25% plunge in Chinese exports has spooked the City.

That shocking slide in exports was joined by at similarly weak, if not quite as alarming, 13.8% drop in imports; combine the two together and it is the kind of ugly reminder of China’s spluttering economy investors certainly don’t need at the moment.

Updated

Here’s some gloomy reaction to the 25% slump in Chinese exports last month, from Reuters.

XIAO SHIJUN, ANALYST AT GUODOU SECURITIES, BEIJING

February’s trade data is really poor and that will exert depreciation pressure on the yuan.

However, the recent lacklustre performance of the U.S. dollar in global markets, together with the Chinese central bank’s determination to keep the yuan relatively stable for now, means that the yuan will not weaken sharply in the near term.

More uncertainties lie in the medium term.”

NIE WEN, ANALYST AT HWABAO TRUST IN SHANGHAI

“China will face a more challenging situation in trade this year than 2015. Both imports and exports in February fell more than our expectations. Exports were largely dragged by a weak global demand from both developed and emerging countries.”

And here’s a more positive take:

JULIAN EVANS-PRITCHARD, CHINA ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS IN SNGAPORE

“Exports were very strong last year in February - up nearly 50 percent - because the Lunar New Year started so late and much of the usual disruption from the holiday was pushed into March. “So there’s a big seasonal effect and the implication is that we’ll probably see a significant reversal and a stronger number next month,

“Exports were very strong last year in February - up nearly 50 percent - because the Lunar New Year started so late and much of the usual disruption from the holiday was pushed into March. “So there’s a big seasonal effect and the implication is that we’ll probably see a significant reversal and a stronger number next month.”

China’s alarmingly weak trade data has hit most Asian markets.

Japan’s Nikkei shed 1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.7%, and the South Korean Kospi fell 0.75%.

China’s own stock markets slumped by 3%, but then curiously rebounded in late trading to close up 0.1%.

Traders may be betting that China will take more steps to stimulate its economy, having set a growth rate target of 6.5% or better this year.

Chinese exports tumble 25% in 'terrible' trade data

A container is lifted by a crane at a port in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong province today.
A container is lifted by a crane at a port in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong province today. Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images

Fears over China’s slowing economy are swirling again this morning after it reported that exports shrank by a quarter (!) last month.

It’s the biggest slump in seven years, since the depths of the financial crisis, and can only add to concerns that the Chinese economy is suffering a nauseously bumpy hard landing.

New government figures showed that exports sank 25.4% year-on-year to $126.1bn last month. Economists has expected a decline of around 14.5%.

Imports were also down, but less alarmingly. They fell 13.8% year-on-year, a recovery from January’s 18.8% tumble.

The export slump can partly be blamed on the Chinese New Year, which fell earlier in February this year.

But the problems surely run deeper than that.

China’s customs office reports that “imports from and exports to major trade partners declined” in February. It cited falling sales of labour-intensive goods, including mechanical and electrical products and apparel.

And the slump sent shivers through the markets.

Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong, called it “another shocker.”

“More stimulus is likely to be needed on both the monetary and fiscal front, and that will argue against the yuan stability China craves.”

Evan Lucas of IG is also concerned, calling the numbers “terrible”.

Its February trade surplus of $32.59bn was 36% below estimates as exports collapsed down to 25.4% year-on-year.

Chinese Lunar New Year always skews the February numbers; however, the figure is much lower than expected and such a big miss has created some angst.

Updated

Introduction: Probing the data and watching Greece

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It’s an edgy time in the markets. Yesterday, we saw the iron ore price surge 20%, and oil rally over $40, a sign of new optimism over growth prospects.

But that was countered by a drop in German factory orders, and a fall in investor confidence, indicating the market turbulence which struck in January has caused real damage.

Today we’ll be tracking the latest Chinese trade data and a new heathcheck from Germany’s factory sector, for further clues.

We’ll also be monitoring Greece, after inspectors from its creditors agreed to return to Athens to review its bailout. That long-awaited talk about debt relief could finally be close, once Greece has satisfied its lenders.

Also coming up this morning:

European finance ministers are gathering in Brussels this morning for an ECOFIN meeting.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, will be testifying to MPs about the EU referendum from 9.15am – our Politics Team should be covering that.

On the corporate front, we’re getting results from Germany’s second-largest utility, RWE, which is cutting thousands of jobs at its UK division, nPower.

Bookmaker Paddy Power and estate agent Foxtons will also be updating the markets.

Updated

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