Summary: US inflation in surprise increase
After a calm start to the day in the run-up to US inflation data, markets turned nervous again as the numbers came in much stronger than expected.
The year on year headline consumer price index figure showed a rise of 2.1% for January, unchanged from December, rather than a fall of 1.9%. The news prompted renewed concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more quickly than expected, despite another set of data showing disappointing US retail sales.
But there was not the panic or volatility seen at times in some recent trading sessions. So on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 55 points having lost as much as 150 points initially.
European markets fell back in the immediate aftermath of the US figures but have since edged back into positive territory. The FTSE 100 is up 0.7%, Germany’s Dax has added 0.3% and France’s Cac has climbed 0.45%.
Earlier eurozone industrial production beat expectations while GDP growth for the fourth quarter was in line with forecasts.
In the UK, businesses expect wage settlements to pick up in 2018 according to the Bank of England’s latest agents’ report. But the IMF said the UK had to do more to boost its productivity.
On that note it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
Here’s Andrew Wilson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management on the inflation numbers:
Recent market turbulence highlights market sensitivity to firmer price and wage data, however we do not think investors should wed their investment outlook to today’s data alone, not least given it is clouded by methodology changes and weather-related distortions. Today’s firmer-than-expected print, which is in some sense encouraging given it reflects a normalisation in components that have been notably weak, may extend recent market volatility, as expectations for Fed rate hikes are recalibrated higher.
In our view, market-pricing for Fed policy understates the solid macro backdrop, including a 17-year low unemployment rate, and the impact of fiscal stimulus, and we think there is scope for more rate hikes this year than the Fed’s current projection for three. That said, we think today’s data should viewed in conjunction with PCE inflation– the Fed’s preferred measure of prices – and wages, which were the culprit for the recent volatility spike, which will be released at the start of next month.
The Dow is now down 130 points but the mood seems calmer than might perhaps have been expected.
The FTSE 100 has actually recovered ground after an initial slide in the immediate aftermath of the higher than forecast US inflation numbers. It is now up 40 points or 0.54%. Germany’s Dax is effectively flat, while France’s Cac has climbed 0.2%.
Dow starts lower to the day following US CPI data, but no Armageddon! pic.twitter.com/cwsaJiWtBa
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 14, 2018
Wall Street opens lower
The higher than expected inflation figures have put pressure on Wall Street in early trading, as rate hike fears resurface.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 100 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened down around 0.36%.
Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said:
Dow and S&P500 futures tanked after the US CPI inflation numbers beat forecasts, signalling that this inflation-triggered selloff could have further to run. As previously noted there was not a huge amount of conviction in the bounce so the market is susceptible to further weakness and the inflation data is supplying plenty of reason to de-risk...
Coming off the back of the 2.9% increase in average hourly earnings, this CPI print will crystallise the prevailing view in the market that we are heading for higher rates and higher inflation. Whether or not this is sustained will be proved in due course and no one can predict the trajectory of travel, or the destination, but the warning lights are flashing and equity markets are taking notice.
On the other hand retail sales were dreadful. January retail sales posted the biggest decline in 11 months while most concerning of all December data was revised to show sales were flat versus the previous reading of +0.4%. Aggregate demand may not be what it seems. What’s most concerning about this is the risk of stagflation – rising inflation and slower growth. Combined the picture is not a good one for risk today.
US economist Jay Shambaugh on the inflation figures:
About that inflation freakout:
— Jay C. Shambaugh (@JayCShambaugh) February 14, 2018
headline and core cpi inflation jumped on the month, but y/y changes (2.1% headline, 1.8% core) same as last month and down from a year ago.
PCE (Fed target) price growth has been tracking lower
>>>> Inflation still tracking below Fed's target pic.twitter.com/T2nmI0wsAQ
Soft retail sales could be a temporary phenomenon but higher inflation is not, says economist James Knightley at ING Bank:
The US data has provided quite a few surprises. Inflation rates have held steady at 2.1% for annual headline consumer price inflation and 1.8% for ex food & energy, rather than fall to 1.9% and 1.7% respectively as the consensus had predicted. Meanwhile retail sales were far softer than expected, falling 0.3%MoM versus forecasts of a 0.2% rise.
Starting with inflation, the main surprise came in apparel, which rose 1.7%MoM. We had suspected it would rebound at some point given its very soft run, but not quite as quickly (it is the biggest increase in more than 10 years). Energy also rose sharply – up 3%MoM, while medical care rose 0.4% (fastest growth for 6M).
As for retail sales there was a wide range of forecasts (the Bloomberg survey had numbers ranging from -0.2% to +0.5%), which presumably reflected the uncertainty relating to bad weather at the very beginning of the year. We had thought there would be a switch to internet sales, but it wasn’t enough to offset the big fall in auto sales (-1.3%MoM). Building materials (-2.4%MoM), health (-1.2%) and sporting (-0.8%) were all weak, but clothing was up 1.2% and gasoline sales were up 1.6%.
We think the softness in retail sales is temporary. With tax cuts, record low unemployment, rising wages and high confidence levels meaning the outlook for spending remains good. However, we think there could be more bad news for inflation. The dollar’s declines will gradually push up import prices, while energy costs will add to the upside. Then there are last year’s distortions relating to cell phone data plans dropping out of the annual comparisons from March. This on its own will add 0.2/0.3 percentage points to annual core inflation with medical care costs and housing costs pushing inflation higher too.
In an environment of strong consumer demand, corporates have the pricing power to pass on higher costs to customers which is going to be increasingly significant given the prospect of a pick-up in wage growth. Taking this altogether we expect core inflation to be back above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in March with headline inflation hitting 3% by the summer. In turn this healthy growth, rising inflation environment means that we consider there to be upside risk for our call of three Fed rate hikes in 2018.
US retail sales drop sharply
If US inflation was higher than expected, then the retail sales figures are below forecast.
They fell 0.3% in January, according to the Commerce Department, recording their biggest fall since February 2017. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 0.2%. Meanwhile December’s figures were revised down from a rise of 0.4% to an unchanged reading.
The poor retail sales figures contrast with the inflation figures in terms of when the Federal Reserve might take further action on interest rates.
And analysts say the real key piece of data will be the February wages figures:
Plenty of arguments to make against the rising inflation concern including the "miss" on January retail sales, DN 0.3% in Jan. The big test will be the Feb. jobs report's gauge on wages.
— Mark Hamrick (@hamrickisms) February 14, 2018
More on the inflation figures:
Outside of energy gains, January #CPI report shows some of biggest monthly price increases in food (fruits & vegetables) and medical care services pic.twitter.com/IRJSDYxaTn
— Elizabeth Schulze (@eschulze9) February 14, 2018
European markets go into reverse
The higher than expected US consumer price index data has rekindled fears that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more quickly than expected, and sent another shudder through stock markets.
With Treasury yields rising, share prices are again under pressure. Wall Street is now expected to open sharply lower and European markets have lost their early gains.
The FTSE 100 is down a handful of points while Germany’s Dax is down 0.3%.
US CPI YoY (January): 2.1% vs 1.9% expected, prior 2.1%
— David Madden (@dmadden_CMC) February 14, 2018
US CPI MoM (January): 0.5% vs 0.3% expected, prior 0.2%
US retail sales MoM (January): -0.3% vs 0.2% expected, prior 0.4%
US core retail sales MoM (January): 0.0% vs 0.4% expected, prior 0.4%
Woah! US CPI running hotter than expectyed
— David Morrison (@jmoz62) February 14, 2018
US CPI running hotter than expected. Market was primed for a benign number. Headline +0.5% vs +0.1% last month. $SPY slumps
2-year yield spiking on hotter than expected US inflation: pic.twitter.com/rTarR4boi2
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) February 14, 2018
Wall Street turns sharply negative after inflation data
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have gone into reverse, indicating a 200 point fall. Immediately before the inflation data, they were showing a 168 point rise.
US inflation higher than expected
The US inflation data the market has been waiting for is out, and it has come in higher than expected.
The headline figure rose by 0.5% month on month in December, compared to expectations of an increase of 0.3%. The year on year figure was steady at 2.1%, compared to forecasts of a fall to 1.9%.
Markets are still holding up well ahead of the US inflation numbers, but what happens after that is anyone’s guess. Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, said:
If the numbers show stronger-than-expected readings, then this would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. As a result, we may see renewed selling pressure coming into the bond and stock markets, while the dollar could rise against her weaker rivals.
Alternatively, however, if the data releases fall significantly short of expectations, then we would expect to see the opposite happen.
And finally, if the data matches expectations then it is hard to say exactly how the markets would react, although we do think that the dollar may rise anyway but not too sure about the equity and bond markets’ reaction.
More on US inflation. Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index, says:
Rightly or wrongly, U.S. inflation data due this afternoon has come to be seen as a litmus test of whether or not economic conditions continue to support equity market advances. With few major stock indices extending their recent correction much beyond 10% from January highs, market participants are wary that any overshoot in price growth relative to expectations could upset still-fragile sentiment anew. The view is a little ‘totemic’, of course. Quite aside from the old truism around not over-emphasising one, or even a few data points, evidence linking long-term interest rates to inflation rates is notoriously sketchy, meaning markets should discount any short-term impact on rate expectations from inflation changes.
Markets are not like that though. Any upside surprises against the 1.9% year-to-year print expected (down from December’s 2.1%), and more importantly 1.7% and 0.2% core annualised and monthly forecasts respectively, will trigger a quick re-think for risky assets.
Potential March and May Fed rate rises have probabilities between 75%-77% according to fund futures and they’re now largely been priced into U.S. equities. So the focus is on whether projections of further tightening by the Fed in later months will be vindicated by economic readings in the run-up. Markets could certainly get themselves into lather on the notion that inflation greenlights the full clip of hikes the Fed has cued up
It’s notable that whilst the imperfect barometer of U.S. equity market anxiety, the Vix, has inevitably ebbed from spike highs notched when selling reached fever pitch, it remains within the notional ‘fear zone’ above 20. Even if markets take signs of brewing inflation in their stride, we would not interpret the mood as having completely dispelled crisis anxieties until the Vix crosses below that marker.
Markets remain in a good mood so far today, but the real test is yet to come, says Spreadex financial analyst Connor Campbell:
It is going to be interesting to see how investors deal with the various US inflation readings this afternoon. While the headline figure is set to jump from 0.1% to 0.3%, the core number is expected to drop from 0.3% to 0.2%.
If the focus is on the former then the markets could be in store for another interest rate-fearing freak-out; if it’s on the latter then the global indices can breathe a (temporary) sigh of relief. Of course, this is without even considering whether or not these estimates will turn out to be accurate...
At present the Dow Jones doesn’t look too worried, with the futures pointing to a 130-ish point rise when the bell rings on Wall Street. That would leave the Dow not too far from 24800, its best price in around a week.
To confuse things more, the year on year figures are expected to show a dip on the headline rate from 2.1% to 1.9%. The core figure, excluding food and energy, is forecast to fall from 1.8% to 1.7%.
Your usual charts showing euro area GDP *levels* (rebased).
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) February 14, 2018
Germany, NL & France still ahead, Italy still behind, Spain & Portugal still catching up very quickly. pic.twitter.com/OKCkjKDqLT
UK now looks very likely to finish bottom of the pack in terms of GDP growth across the G7 over 2017.
— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) February 14, 2018
(*unless it turns out Canada's economy suddenly contracted 0.9% qq during Q4) pic.twitter.com/4W3DnKTqS1
The eurozone economy is expected to remain strong after the 2017 performance, says economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank:
Growth in the Eurozone economy was broad-based. Germany and Spain maintained strong economic growth with 0.6% and 0.7% QoQ respectively, although this was slightly lower than in Q3 for both economies. Italy disappointed somewhat with just 0.3% growth and continues to lag the Eurozone average despite optimistic data released during the quarter.
This rounds out a year in which the Eurozone economy was helped by strong tailwinds and the question is how long these growth rates can be maintained. Even though the ECB has reduced asset purchases, the euro has appreciated against the dollar and politics remains a factor of uncertainty, leading indicators are still pointing to a very strong start to the year.
Eurozone industry is a good example of a sector with still has a lot of upside left. As manufacturing surveys have been jubilant recently, industrial production was due to surprise positively. December saw a jump to 5.2% annual growth led by capital- and durable consumer goods production. The acceleration of production growth is unlikely to be a one-off as the outlook for industry remains rosy. Manufacturing businesses are indicating that production for almost four months has been assured by current orders, which is around record highs. Growth in new orders has accelerated over the past six months, which means that expectations for production at the beginning of 2018 are high. Given the current backlog of work in industry, it is no surprise that hiring and investment in capital goods are high on the list of businesses. This adds to the strong economic picture for the start of 2018.
Meanwhile the EY Item club has raised its forecast for UK economic growth this year from 1.4% to 1.7%.
Our latest outlook got the #UK #economy. Among key takeaways - we see #GDP #growth at 1.7% in both 2018 & 2019. Two #BOE #interest #rate hikes in 2018 & one in 2019. Click on link below to access the full report and/or hear our webcast on our forecasts https://t.co/TZScUH89no https://t.co/irsmRji8if
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) February 14, 2018
Eurozone industrial production beats estimates, GDP growth in line
More signs of the strength of Europe’s economy.
Eurozone industrial production rose by a better than expected 0.4% in December compared to the previous month, with an annual gain of 5.2%. Analysts had been forecasting rises of 0.2% and 4.2% respectively.
Meanwhile the EU statistics office Eurostat confirmed that eurozone GDP rose by 2.5% in 2017, the fastest growth rate for a decade.
During the fourth quarter, GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area and the wider European Union in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, eurozone GDP increased by 2.7% and EU GDP by 2.6%.
UK businesses expect pay rises to grow in 2018 - Bank of England
Businesses expect average pay settlements to pick up this year, according to the latest Bank of England regional agents’ report.
Companies think pay settlements will increase from 2.6% in 2017 to 3.1% this year, with rises broadly based across most sectors. Only construction companies expect pay rises to be flat this year. The Bank said:
The survey indicated that companies expected an average pay settlement rate of 3.1% in 2018, compared with 2.6% in 2017. The 2017 outturn was higher than the 2.2% that had been expected in last year’s survey, reflecting larger settlements across a broad range of sectors. The increases in pay settlements in 2018 are also expected to be broad-based, with only the construction sector expecting pay settlements in 2018 to be the same as in 2017.
Other conclusions from the report:
- Growth in activity had held steady at a modest pace. Professional services firms had reported a pickup in growth; goods export volumes had strengthened, construction output growth had continued to slow.
- Investment intentions had remained positive, but mainly reflected investment to maintain business activity.
- Recruitment difficulties had remained at an elevated level
Over in Italy, the latest growth figures came in slightly less than expected.
Fourth quarter GDP rose by 0.3% quarter on quarter, down from the 0.4% recorded in the previous three months and expected to be repeated this time round.
But over the whole of 2017, Italy’s economy grew by 1.4%, the strongest performance for seven years.
ITALY: GDP expanded by 0.3% in 4Q, a bit less than expected. Still, 2017 was the best growth year (+1.5%) since 2010. Shows how broad-based the euro-area recovery has become. A rising tide lifts all boats. https://t.co/gVI7pMsko4 pic.twitter.com/NZ7gWhkdc6
— Maxime Sbaihi (@MxSba) February 14, 2018
The IMF has some suggestions as to how the UK could improve its productivity:
- Build more homes, including by easing planning restrictions. Housing is very expensive in the UK. With more houses available, they would become more affordable and it would be less costly for workers to move between regions to take better-paying jobs. That would improve living standards and reduce inequality.
- Improve the quality of infrastructure. Transportation bottlenecks and other infrastructure problems hold back development in regions with lower productivity. Better connectivity would help reduce regional inequalities and support growth.
- Reform the education system. UK students rank low on tests of basic skills, while UK firms continue reporting shortages of skilled workers, including those with technical education. Better schooling would help young people find jobs, especially once they have obtained a degree. Unemployment rates are the lowest among those with the highest levels of education.
-
Invest in research. Public and private spending on research and development in the UK is relatively low. Increasing such investments would make local companies better able to compete internationally.
UK has to resolve the problem of weak productivity of its economy. Read more here https://t.co/DnR8Ys9q3h on some solutions to try. pic.twitter.com/Syyu54rLcJ
— IMF (@IMFNews) February 14, 2018
Updated
Britain needs to boost productivity - IMF
Britain should give priority to improving its productivity performance, according to the latest assessment from the International Monetary Fund.
Following a consulation in the wake of December’s annual health check on the UK economy when it defended its gloomy predictions for the country’s post-Brexit vote performance, the IMF said:
Economic growth has moderated since the beginning of 2017, reflecting weakening domestic demand. The sharp depreciation of sterling following the referendum has raised consumer price inflation, squeezing household real income and consumption. Business investment has been constrained. In the medium term, growth is projected to remain at around 1.5 percent under the baseline assumption of continued progress in Brexit negotiations that lead to an understanding on a broad free trade agreement and on the transition process.
The baseline outlook is subject to a number of risks, including developments with Brexit negotiations; uncertainty about the recovery of productivity growth, which has been weak since the crisis; and the current account deficit, which reached a record high in 2016.
The IMF added:
Directors agreed that structural reforms should prioritize enhancing productivity, inclusiveness, and external competitiveness...
Since the financial crisis, output growth has been underpinned by strong increases in employment, while productivity growth has been very weak. With the UK unemployment rate at a 42-year low and the annual net inflow of workers from the EU already declining, the scope for future employment gains is more limited. Therefore, economic performance will depend increasingly on the ability of firms to raise output per worker. The shape of the new agreement with the EU will affect productivity performance through its implications for trade, investment and migration. The higher are any new barriers to the cross-border flow of services, goods and workers, the more negative the impact would be.
European markets continue to move higher, while US futures are suggesting a positive opening on Wall Street. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
Despite the prospect of some hawkish US inflation data later this afternoon the European indices got off to a strong start this Wednesday.
The FTSE, which showed some much needed resilience in the face of the UK’s own sky-high inflation figure on Tuesday, rose 40 points after the bell, allowing the index to crawl back over the 7200 mark it has struggled with in the last few sessions.
It helped that the pound wasn’t particularly energetic. Sterling failed to make the most out of yesterday’s January’s 3.0% inflation reading, and is continuing to look out of ideas this Wednesday. Against the dollar the pound is up just 0.1%, failing to cross the $1.39 levels briefly seen on Tuesday, while against the euro it has slipped a further 0.1%, leaving it to tease a fresh one month low.
After wilting in the face of the euro’s strength on Tuesday the Eurozone indices are clearly in a better mood. The DAX rose 0.6%, sending it back towards 12300, with the CAC and IBEX both climbing 0.4%. Still to come is the region-wide flash Q4 GDP reading, expected to come in unchanged from the previous estimate at 0.6%.
As mentioned, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is in the red, mainly due to continuing strength in the yen. The Japanese currency is benefiting from a weaker dollar, despite slower than expected growth. The country’s latest GDP figures showed the economy expanded by an annualised 0.5% in the three months to December, below the forecast 0.9%.
European markets open higher
After last night’s recovery on Wall Street - which was not followed up in Japan where the Nikkei 225 is in negative territory - European markets have made a bright start.
The FTSE 100 is up 46 points or 0.65%, Germany’s Dax has opened 0.9% higher, France’s Cac has climbed 0.5% and Italy’s FTSE MIB has recovered 0.7%.
Among the movers in the UK market, Sky has climbed 3% after it won the bulk of the Premier League rights in the latest top flight football auction.
But Galliford Try has dropped 14% as the construction group said it planned to raise £150m from investors. It said the collapse of Carillion had increased its cash commitments on a joint venture in Aberdeen by that amount, and it did not want to divert funds from other projects to cover the payment.
Meanwhile Serco has added 1% after it said it would pay £29.7m for a portfolio of health facilities management contracts from Carillion, less than the original cost of £47.7m agreed before Carillion’s liquidation.
Updated
More on the German GDP figures.
The country’s economy grew by 0.6% quarter on quarter in the final three months of 2017, in line with expectations. The figures were boosted by strong exports, according to the statistics agency, albeit growth was slower than the 0.7% recorded in the previous quarter. Over the entire year, the economy grew by 2.2%, the strongest performance since 2011.
Economist Carsten Brzeski at ING Bank called it an impressive performance, but warned of the political risks ahead:
The strong 4Q performance also means that without any growth in the next four quarters, annual GDP growth in 2018 would come in close to 1%.
Looking ahead, the same fundamentals which have supported growth in 2016 and 2017 should still be in place in 2018. The only question is how much additional stimulus low interest rates, the strong labour market and the recent upswing of the entire Eurozone economy can still provide to the mature cycle of the German economy. In our view, still a lot. The German economy still has some upward potential as the output gap is positive but not extraordinary high compared with previous cycles, capacity utilisation is above its historical average but still lower than in 2007 and investments have only started to increase this year. Judging from previous cycles, the economy could continue its current pace for at least one or two more years, without showing signs of overheating.
Obviously, there are also risks to this positive outlook for the German economy, just think of a protectionist wave coming from the US, a sharp appreciation of the euro or renewed political tensions, geopolitically, in the Eurozone or domestically. Interestingly, the last one has clearly moved up on the scale from “remote” to “clear possibility”.
...These days, Germany clearly shows two different faces: the well-known one of a strong and high-performing economy and the unknown one of fragile politics. It looks as if in the future any German Schadenfreude on political chaos in other European countries will be very muted.
Agenda: Spotlight on US inflation and IMF report on UK
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Much of the recent market turmoil came after US wages growth was stronger than expected, prompting talk of rising inflation and the prospect of central banks increasing interest rates and withdrawing financial stimulus more quickly than previously expected.
With that in mind, today’s US consumer price index data will be closely watched to see if inflationary pressures are indeed picking up. And even though the Federal Reserve does not take much account of the CPI measure when determining interest rate policy, there is enough nervousness around that a stronger than expected figure could have repercussions for stock markets.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:
Today’s US CPI inflation report has taken on an importance all of its own in the wake of the recently strong wages numbers, never mind the fact that the Fed doesn’t even use CPI to target inflation.
Nonetheless this renewed focus on inflation, not only in the US but more globally has raised concerns that central banks may well be behind the curve when it comes to assessing the outlook for the next few months...
Much importance is being attached to today’s US January CPI report, however it is unlikely to tell us too much more than what we already know about inflationary pressure in the US economy. Various ISM prices paid surveys are telling us that prices are rising at their highest levels since 2011, yet thus far we haven’t seen much evidence of it in the headline numbers.
Even now indications are for CPI to slip back to 1.9% from 2.1%, while retail sales for January are expected to show a rise of 0.2%, a modest slowdown from the 0.4% rise seen in December.
Jasper Lawler at London Capital Group said:
Today’s US CPI release will be one on the most closely watched data prints in recent times. Let’s not forget that the recent rout in equities started with a surprising acceleration in US earnings growth, which promoted fears that inflation may pick up soon, which in turn sent treasury yields higher. Should these fears be played out today in an unexpected strengthening in inflation, then a renewed sell off in equities and bonds could be on the cards and the dollar could benefit. With so much riding on the CPI data, we are expecting a very cautious morning of trading in general.
Markets have been reasonably calm so far this week, with Wall Street recovering from early losses yesterday to end higher for the third day. Europe is expected to open higher when trading begins shortly.
Here are IG’s opening calls:
European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7206 +0.53%#DAX 12270 +0.60%#CAC 5138 +0.57%#MIB 22169 +0.61%#IBEX 9705 +0.57%
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) February 14, 2018
Apart from the US data, we also have German GPD figures, which are in line with expectations, as well as eurozone growth data. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund is due to release its latest assessment of the UK shortly.
Agenda:
9am GMT: IMF Article IV updated assessment of UK
10am GMT: Eurozone industrial production and GDP
1.30pm GMT: US consumer price index and retail sales
