On Twitter, I was recently part of a discussion over how the ticket-buying public will behave when big-time American spectator sports are again open to fans.
When fans are free to attend Kentucky Wildcats games, other college events and NBA, MLB and NFL matchups, what will happen?
Will a pent-up demand for normalcy lead to throngs of fans packing our nation's major sports venues the first chance they get?
Or will the combination of the lingering threat of COVID-19 plus the economic dislocation caused by the government-mandated shutdowns of American businesses lead to persistently smaller crowds?
In the current vacuum without live sports, there are metrics that suggest how much the games are missed.
The TV ratings for ESPN's telecast of the WNBA Draft on April 17 were up 123% over 2019.
In its first two installments shown last Sunday night, ESPN's 10-part Michael Jordan film, "The Last Dance," drew the largest audience ever for a documentary on that network, an average of 6.1 million viewers.
Thursday night's first-round of the 2020 NFL Draft also drew 6.1 millions viewers on ABC alone. That is more than 1.5 million viewers more than the 2019 first round drew _ and does not include the multi-platform numbers.
People, clearly, are seeking a sports fix. But will that translate into game attendance once that again is possible? Seeking theories, I surveyed some prominent Kentucky sports figures.
"I think (sports fans) will come back as soon as they can," says Kenny Rice, the NBC Sports television reporter who lives in Lexington. "I definitely think people are going to be clamoring to get back to doing something, and sports will be a big part of it."
Alan Stein, the Lexington-based, former minor league baseball executive/team owner, is not so sure.
'I think there will be an initial euphoria about going back to (ballgames)," Stein says. "I believe it will wane quickly and be a very tepid rebuild to get back to where we were. I don't think it will even come close to that until and unless we get a vaccine for this thing."
Whether the public has confidence in its safety as part of crowds when the quarantine ends _ whether that is the result of an effective coronavirus vaccine or some other measure _ is the key to the successful relaunch of fan-attended sporting events, Kentucky Speedway General Manager Mark Simendinger says.
"I think once people gain the confidence to know they can congregate, I think people will choose to congregate," Simendinger says. "People enjoy (being in a crowd), they miss that."
