In 2021, college football followers in the commonwealth will witness an unusually consequential battle for the Governor’s Cup.
After a one-year rivalry hiatus caused by the coronavirus, Mark Stoops and the Wildcats are slated to resume hostilities with Scott Satterfield and the Cardinals on Nov. 27 at Cardinal Stadium.
With a victory, Kentucky can assert complete control of the intrastate rivalry at a moment when the in-state recruiting impact of doing so could prove immense.
Conversely, a Louisville win would be the best way Satterfield could return to the good graces of a restive U of L fan base after 1). the Cards went 4-7 last year; 2.) the coach publicly flirted with the South Carolina coaching vacancy.
After U of L won the Governor’s Cup five years in a row (2011-15), Stoops and troops have now claimed the trophy presented to the Wildcats-Cardinals winner three times in the past four meetings.
The last two Kentucky victories over Louisville have been emphatic — UK won 56-10 in The Ville in 2018 and 45-13 in Lexington in 2019.
There’s no secret to the formula Stoops has used to turn the tables on the Cards.
Kentucky line play — on both sides of the football — has begun to overpower Louisville.
In the past two battles between Wildcats and Cardinals, the Cats offensive line has cleared the way for UK to score a combined 11 rushing touchdowns.
Five of those TDs — on runs of 7, 75, 6, 46, and 64 yards — were tallied with the Wildcats ball carrier literally never being touched by a Cardinals defender en route to the end zone.
The Kentucky defensive front has been almost as commanding. While outscoring U of L 101-23 in the past two meetings, UK has pinned eight quarterback sacks and a whopping 21 tackles for loss on Louisville.
After watching his team get drubbed in his first Governor’s Cup battle as U of L coach in 2019, Satterfield was at least able to correctly diagnose the problem.
“Bottom line, we got worn down by their offensive line and their defensive line,” he said.
Of course, past is not always prologue in college football.
Two of the Kentucky offensive linemen who opened such gaping holes against Louisville in 2019 are still UK starters. However, both Darian Kinnard (right tackle to left) and Luke Fortner (right guard to center) are switching positions.
Kentucky also has a new offensive coordinator (Liam Coen), a new offensive line coach (Eric Wolford) and will be running a different offensive system (borrowed from the Los Angeles Rams) in 2021.
Meanwhile, the four starters on the UK defensive front — Quinton Bohanna, T.J. Carter, Cavlin Taylor and Boogie Watson — that helped Kentucky compile a robust 13 tackles for loss against U of L in 2019 have also all departed.
With so much change, can Kentucky maintain its game-altering superiority over Louisville in the trenches?
Because facing UK in men’s basketball has been mostly unpleasant for U of L (3-11) in the John Calipari coaching era (2009-10 through the present), beating Kentucky in football takes on heightened importance to the Louisville fan base.
The pressure on Satterfield to get on the board this year against UK will be keen.
Had last year’s Cats-Cards game been played, offensive skill players looked like U of L’s big edge.
This season, Louisville still has dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham (2,617 passing yards but 12 interceptions; 609 yards rushing in 2020), but star running back Javian Hawkins (822 yards rushing in eight games) and star wideouts Tutu Atwell (46 catches, 625 yards in nine games) and Dez Fitzpatrick (43 catches, 833 yards in 11 games) have all moved on.
Raising the significance of this season’s UK-U of L showdown will be the recruiting subtext.
After UK got shut out with in-state prospects in the class of 2018, Stoops moved recruiting ace Vince Marrow into the Bluegrass State.
With Marrow on point, Kentucky has subsequently signed or holds verbal commitments from 19 in-state prospects — including six from Louisville Metro — from 2019 through the 2022 class still being assembled.
Over the same period, Louisville has inked three in-state players directly out of high school, all from Jefferson County.
For 2023, the rising junior class, Kentucky has already offered 15 in-state high school players, according to the 24/7 Sports database.
All those offers might not be “commitable,” but UK will have a ton riding on controlling its home state in recruiting next school year.
Of those 15 home-bred prospects, 24/7 shows U of L having offered seven (the Cardinals hold a commitment to play baseball from an eighth).
Given the way things have gone in-state for Louisville since Bobby Petrino’s ill-fated second stint (2014-18) as Cards coach, it’s hard to see U of L gaining significant traction in the in-state recruiting wars without Satterfield first turning the tables on Kentucky on the field.
All of which is why it feels like the Kentucky-Louisville football rivalry will stand at a crucial tipping point when the Wildcats visit the Cardinals in November.
