The optimistic line regarding the “troubles” that have enveloped the Kentucky men’s basketball program this winter is that the Wildcats’ competitive collapse is a “one-off” created by unique circumstances unlikely ever to be replicated.
By that school of thought, a chastened John Calipari will preside over a “return to normalcy” next season that sees UK basketball reclaim its accustomed perch among the elite of college hoops.
Well, maybe.
For Kentucky to bounce back from this season’s 8-15 slog and immediately become a legitimate Final Four contender the following season would defy the history of elite programs that have endured seasons of futility of a magnitude similar to the one UK has produced in 2020-21.
The good news for Wildcats backers is that when blue blood college hoops programs fall, history says they get up and reclaim lost prestige.
The bad news, however, is that it has consistently taken more than one season for even the most elite hoops operations to fully “get back.”
As you will see below, the timelines of iconic college basketball programs trying to bounce back from disastrous seasons are remarkably similar:
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DUKE
Season of disaster: Went 13-18 in 1994-95 after Coach Mike Krzyzewski left his team mid-season due to health issues and the Blue Devils went 4-15 without him.
The following season: Finished 18-13 in 1995-96, losing as a No. 8 seed to No. 9 Eastern Michigan in the NCAA Tournament round of 64.
Years it took to make it all the way back: Three. In 1997-98, Duke went 32-4, 15-1 in the ACC, and came agonizingly close to returning to the Final Four only to be denied by Kentucky’s “Comeback Cats” in the round of eight.
In the ensuing season, the Blue Devils finished 37-2 and were 1999 NCAA Tournament runners-up.
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KANSAS
Season of disaster: 13-16 in 1982-83 in what turned out to be Ted Owens’ final season as Jayhawks coach.
The following season: Went 22-10 in Larry Brown’s first year, winning one game in the 1984 NCAA Tournament.
Years it took to make it all the way back: Three. In 1985-86, Brown coached Kansas to a 35-4 record and a berth in the Final Four.
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KENTUCKY
Season of disaster: As the storm clouds of an NCAA investigation gathered, Eddie Sutton’s final team in 1988-89 limped home 13-19. Sutton resigned as UK head coach after the final game.
The following season: With a depleted roster that featured only eight healthy, scholarship players, Kentucky went an uplifting 14-14 in Rick Pitino’s first season as Wildcats head man.
Years it took to make it all the way back: Three. In 1991-92, UK went 29-7, won the SEC Tournament and was Christian Laettner’s famous buzzer beater away from making a stunning run to the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
The following year, Pitino coached Kentucky (30-4) to its first Final Four since 1984.
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NORTH CAROLINA I
Season of disaster: 8-20 in 2001-02.
The following season: A 19-16 record in 2002-03 was not enough to save the job of then-Tar Heels coach Matt Doherty.
Years it took to make it all the way back: Three. In 2004-05, Roy Williams’ second season as UNC head man, the Tar Heels won the national championship.
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NORTH CAROLINA II
Season of disaster: 14-19, 6-14 ACC, in 2019-20.
The following season: Williams’ Tar Heels are currently 15-9, 9-6 ACC, and are projected as a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi.
Years it will take to make it all the way back: TBD.
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UCLA
Season of disaster: 10-19 in 2002-03, a result which cost Steve Lavin the Bruins’ head coaching job.
The following season: Went 11-17 in Ben Howland’s first year as UCLA head man in 2003-04.
Years it took to make it all the way back: Three. UCLA went 32-7 in 2005-06 and lost to Florida in the NCAA title game in the first of what became three straight Final Four trips.
After presiding over Kentucky’s one-and-done era, Calipari brings ample experience to roster revamps and one-year rebuilds.
That could be an advantage for UK as it tries to short-circuit what has historically been a three-year process for a blue-blood basketball program fully digging out from a competitive collapse.
ESPN college basketball analyst Jimmy Dykes had some interesting remarks on the future of Kentucky basketball during Tuesday night’s broadcast of the UK-Mississippi game.
If you accept that Dykes was likely relaying things told to him by Calipari, it sounds like the Wildcats will be welcoming as many as four more new players for 2021-22 in addition to West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe and incoming freshmen Nolan Hickman, Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins.
Kentucky obviously needs a player(s) capable of beating defenders off the dribble and creating shots for teammates.
Whether that player(s) can be added before next season is likely the biggest factor that will determine whether Calipari can accelerate the “blue-blood revival” process and make what has customarily been a three-year rebuild into a one-year fix of UK basketball.
