MINNEAPOLIS — There have been 18 NFL drafts since the Texans joined the league and picked first in 2002. In those 18 years, teams picking first averaged 1.7 wins the year before.
What that means is the Vikings, sitting on one win, probably need at least a franchise-record 14 losses to have any shot at wresting slam-dunk No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence away from 12 peers that currently have fewer than three victories.
Suddenly, the Vikings seem more than OK with belly-flopping down that slippery slope. Fifteen bye weeks after the Love Boat scandal rocked the Vikings off the field, general manager Rick Spielman sent notice on Thursday that he and Mike Zimmer's 2020 on-field ship has sunk.
He said otherwise, of course. But less than two months after using a second-round pick to acquire Yannick Ngakoue, Spielman unloaded him for a third-round pick on the same day news broke that Danielle Hunter had opted for season-ending neck surgery.
Will there be more white flags raised before the Nov. 3 deadline?
Possibly. After all, the winless Jets have the inside lane and look unbeatable when it comes to being beaten.
Meanwhile, 18 teams already have played their way out of next year's first pick by winning at least three times.
Sorry, fellas. Worse luck next year.
Houston also has a problem. The Texans are 1-5 but traded their pick to Miami. The Dolphins are 3-3 and still sitting seventh and 14th in the current draft order.
The Dolphins presumably don't want Lawrence, the Clemson quarterback, having just named rookie Tua Tagovailoa their starting quarterback. But Miami wouldn't mind the bounty that'll come from trading that pick.
The last time a team traded the first overall pick, Tennessee got a first-round pick, two seconds and two thirds to swap first-rounders so the Rams could take Jared Goff in 2016.
Trading for the Lawrence pick probably will cost even more.
As for the Vikings, don't kid yourself, Kirk Cousins fans. There's no way they'd pass on Lawrence's talent and rookie pay scale. He could sit or share the job in 2021, when Cousins is guaranteed $21 million, and then bump Cousins from the roster in 2022.
So how will this Tussle for Trevor play out over the final 11 weeks? Here's a week-by-week guess:
