With the final conference championship games set to be played on Sunday, the NCAA men’s basketball selection committee is hard at work finalizing the bracket for the NCAA tournament reveal on Sunday evening.
There are storylines abound heading into the reveal. Here are five pressing questions the committee will need to answer in the men’s bracket.
Will Miami (Ohio) avoid the First Four in Dayton?
Miami (Ohio) completed a perfect 31–0 season en route to a MAC regular-season title, but the RedHawks entered the conference tournament needing a league title to erase all doubt about a possible bid to the NCAA tournament.
That’s because the RedHawks, despite going undefeated in the regular season, played one of the the worst nonconference schedules in the entire country (362nd out of 365) and did not play in a single Quad 1 game all season. In addition, Miami (Ohio) had only three Quad 2 games to its name. The RedHawks won all three, but the other 28 victories came in the bottom two quads of the NCAA NET.
So fair or not, Travis Steele & Co. needed to win the MAC tournament title to erase all doubts. Rent came due for the RedHawks after several close wins to end the regular season, as Miami (Ohio) lost to UMass in the MAC quarterfinal to end the season 31–1.
Miami (Ohio) will hear its name called on Selection Sunday, but there’s no guarantee that the RedHawks avoid the First Four in Dayton as one of the final eight teams in the field. In fact, there’s a strong possibility that Miami (Ohio) will have to play its way into the round one field of 64 with a matchup against what’s likely to be a high major opponent in Dayton early this week.
But if Miami (Ohio) avoids the First Four play-in games, it will be because of its Wins Above Bubble—an important metric for the committee that measures the number of wins a team has against its schedule relative to how an average bubble team would fare against that same schedule. The RedHawks are No. 38 in WAB, which is plenty good enough to be safely in the field.
This will be the top storyline entering Selection Sunday.
What about Auburn?
Auburn has been sitting squarely on the projected cut line for the NCAA tournament for weeks, thanks to up-and-down performances in a tough SEC, coupled with a series of quality wins to offset some head-scratching losses.
The Tigers’ case to make the field got quite the boost on Saturday thanks to wins by Arkansas and St. John’s. The Razorbacks will play Vanderbilt for the SEC tournament title on Sunday, while the Red Storm conquered the Big East in both the regular season and conference tournament for the second consecutive year with a 20-point victory at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night against UConn.
Auburn beat both of those teams this season, taking down the Red Storm by 11 on a neutral floor back in November, while beating the Razorbacks by TWENTY-TWO in early January. The Tigers also own a nine-point win over Florida in Gainesville, Fla., which doesn’t hurt. After all, Florida has a good case for a No. 1 seed on Sunday (more on that in a moment).
The case against Auburn? Well, the Tigers did lose 16 times. Does a near-.500 team actually deserve a shot to compete for a national championship if it didn’t capture an auto-bid?
Auburn playing in 17 Quad 1 games and five Quad 2 contests is the only reason why this is a conversation entering Selection Sunday, but it’s a serious one nonetheless. The selection committee will have an interesting call to make on the Tigers.
Who will earn the fourth No. 1 seed?
Three of the four No. 1 seeds have been locked into place for quite some time. Duke, Arizona and Michigan (in some order) are all going to see themselves on the top line when the bracket is revealed on Sunday evening.
But who will be the fourth No. 1 seed?
The answer is likely Florida. Entering Saturday, if the Gators took care of business against Vanderbilt, this wouldn’t even be a question. But Florida was thumped by 17 in the SEC tournament semifinal against the Commodores, opening the door to UConn or Houston to slide into the Gators’ place on the top line.
Neither took advantage. UConn was throttled by 20 at Madison Square Garden in the Big East tournament title game, and Houston couldn’t close late in a competitive contest against Arizona in the Big 12 championship.
That means despite playing its worst game in weeks, Florida will still likely be the fourth No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
If Dayton wins Sunday’s Atlantic 10 title to steal a bid, which bubble team will be pushed out?
Bubble teams will be locked into Sunday’s Atlantic 10 title game between Dayton and VCU. The Flyers knocked off Saint Louis in the A-10 semifinal on Saturday, eliminating the conference’s lone lock for the NCAA tournament from A-10 tournament title contention. VCU beat Saint Joseph’s by 13 on Saturday, which puts the Rams on more solid ground despite still floating on the bubble. As long as VCU is competitive in the conference title game (which they’re favored to win), it’s hard to envision the Rams falling totally out of the field with a loss.
Dayton’s only path to an NCAA tournament bid is through beating VCU on Sunday. If the Flyers steal a bid, VCU will (likely) be an at-large selection to the field along with Saint Louis. If the A-10 sends three teams to the tournament, which bubble team will be pushed out as a result?
Could it be Auburn? Oklahoma (who came on strong late in the season but is likely a win or two short)? San Diego State?
Let’s talk more about San Diego State.
Will the Mountain West be a one-bid league?
Utah State beat San Diego State in Saturday’s Mountain West title game, which will lead to a sweaty selection show for the Aztecs. The Aggies are in the field as a lock, but there’s a good chance that’s the only bid that the Mountain West will get, especially if the A-10 ends up with three teams in the field. Couple that with the WCC likely landing bids for both Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara as at-large teams along with conference champion Gonzaga, along with the MAC earning two bids thanks to Akron and Miami (Ohio), and the Mountain West could be left snubbed from at-large berths despite a solid year at the top of the conference.
Utah State is very good. San Diego State had a solid season contending in the league, but will likely rue the decision to play the Whittier College Poets in December in a non-Division I affair. The 61-point win didn’t count toward the Aztecs’ NCAA tournament metrics, and in a season where the program could come up one win short of the Big Dance, they’ll likely wish they played 31 Division I games like most everybody else.
The other Mountain West team under consideration was New Mexico, a solid team that fell to San Diego State in the MWC semifinal that all but eliminated the program from at-large consideration.
The Mountain West was a good league that was likely deserving of multiple bids, but it may not come to pass due to circumstances with competing leagues that have teams with better bubble cases this March.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as March Madness: Five Questions Ahead of Men’s Bracket Reveal on Selection Sunday.
