Ahead of the Final Four, Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer make their picks for the national semifinals and national championship games in Indianapolis. Plus, the players who could be x-factors in the Final Four and what the most memorable moment of March Madness has been so far.
Final Four predictions
Pat Forde
Illinois over UConn and Arizona over Michigan; Arizona national champion
These both should be very good games. I believe the first game might be a little more decisive than the second, because I believe Illinois will be able to exploit its size and could have a significant advantage at the foul line. (Preemptive statement to the conspiracy theorists: A foul disparity does not mean the officials are on the take and throwing the game. It might simply mean that one team—Illinois—leads the nation in lowest opponent free throw rate while the other—UConn—is 307th in the same category.) But clearly, counting out UConn would be utterly foolish.
The second semifinal is going to be a monster showdown. Michigan and Arizona have been dominant teams all season, with no major flaws and no serious wobble in the crucible of March. Now that it’s April, I’m sticking with the team I picked at the beginning of the tournament, the Wildcats. In a game that figures to be very even, I’m riding with the team that has a greater ability to rebound its own misses, get to the line and get easy points.
In the title game, I am taking Arizona to avenge its 2005 collapse in the regional final against Illinois and win its first title since 1997 (which was also in Indianapolis). At that Elite Eight game 21 years ago, Bill Murray was in the crowd cheering for the Illini. He’ll be at this Final Four in support of UConn, since his son is Dan Hurley’s assistant coach Luke (soon to be the head coach at Boston College).
Bryan Fischer
Illinois over UConn and Arizona over Michigan; Arizona national champion
I’m hesitant to pick against the Huskies given their experience on this stage and the fact that Hurley is wringing every last ounce out of a group that limped into the NCAA tournament prior to this remarkable run. I just think that the depth the Illini have in the frontcourt can be a huge factor in slowing down Tarris Reed Jr. and their general length on the perimeter will cause issues in running those offensive sets that can be difficult to prepare for. The Big Ten side will at least get a few extra days to dissect their opponent and can benefit from the familiarity that came with their earlier meeting this season.
As for the marquee semifinal, I just flipped a coin and landed on Arizona. I think it’s a razor-thin margin between the two best teams this March and probably comes down to the Wildcats simply having a higher floor in any game with their length and versatility. The Wolverines could be off from behind the arc or have Aday Mara get into foul trouble and that could be an era where they would be a little more vulnerable over a squad that was the best team in the sport this year save a one week stretch in league play.
Finally, give me Arizona to cap off this incredible campaign by bringing the banner back west of Texas for the first time since they did so in 1997. There are a lot of similarities in how fun this group is to watch with that previous set of legends in Tucson, and I think they can control the final from start to finish over the Illini. It should make for an incredible battle, especially in the paint, between the two but Zona simply has the look of a champion this season.
Kevin Sweeney
UConn over Illinois and Arizona over Michigan; Arizona national champion
The more I’ve sat with Game 1, the more I think UConn may have a slight edge over Illinois. The Illini defense has bowed up well in this tournament, but I’m not sure they can match the physicality of Reed on the inside and could struggle with the Huskies’ wing shooters flying off screens. Reed has also been a behemoth on the glass, which could neutralize a critical edge in the game for Illinois.
And in the second game, expect an all-out battle from a physical standpoint. And in the end, I think Arizona is just a bit bigger and tougher than Michigan is. I also trust Arizona PG Jaden Bradley almost absolutely with the ball in his hands late in games and feel good about his ability to close games for the Wildcats if they get in a grinder late.
I don’t subscribe to the theory that Michigan-Arizona is the de facto title game, but I do have to pick the Wildcats over UConn in a championship game. Arizona has been the most consistent and most complete team all season and will find a way to cut down the nets.
Player Who Could Be an X-Factor
Pat Forde
Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov
Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov is the least celebrated of the Wildcats’ three starting freshmen, but he’s a very good player who provides versatility and aggressiveness. He’s strong (230 pounds), long (6' 7") and can guard one through three (maybe four in a pinch). Kharchenkov also has been very efficient in the tournament, scoring 56 points on 35 shots in four games. His increased role has shown in the last three outings, where he’s averaged 36.3 minutes.
Bryan Fischer
Freshman phenoms
How about the freshmen powering all these teams in general? The likes of Indiana kid Braylon Mullins at UConn, Illinois guard Keaton Wagler, Arizona’s starting trio and newfound Michigan sixth man Trey McKenney all could be overwhelmed by the big stage of the Final Four and playing in a football stadium or they could wind up going off and scoring in a timely fashion like they’ve shown recently. All are surrounded by key veterans that ultimately will determine the game state for their teams, but any of the young guns showing up and overperforming likely is the key to making it to Monday night.
Kevin Sweeney
Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas
On a team with so many impactful players, I think Motiejus Krivas at Arizona sometimes gets overlooked a bit. He’s arguably the Wildcats’ most important player because of his ability to dominate the rim defensively, making an impact similar to what Donovan Clingan did for UConn in the 2024 title run. His contributions will be especially important against Michigan and its incredible size. If he wins the battle with Mara and Morez Johnson Jr., Arizona will win the game.
Best Thing You Saw in the Tournament So Far
Pat Forde
I’ve been courtside for two last-second game-winners in two different locales—Dylan “Bells” Darling’s driving layup for St. John’s to beat Kansas in the second round in San Diego, and Trey Kaufman-Renn’s perfectly timed tip-in to lift Purdue past Texas in the Sweet 16 in San Jose. Even without being present for the Braylon Mullins winner, I have been California dreaming.
Bryan Fischer
I’ve been blessed to be on an incredible heater this tournament. Ohio State had a shot at the buzzer before falling to TCU in an excellent back-and-forth during the opening game in Greenville, S.C., in the opening round, followed by Siena’s near upset of No. 1 overall seed Duke. There was a 19-point comeback by VCU that led to a coaching change at North Carolina and a pair of incredible Sweet 16 games in Washington, D.C., involving brand-name programs, players and coaches decided by five points or fewer.
But the easy answer is the shot I’ll be telling everybody I witnessed in person for years to come: Mullins’s miracle to stun the Blue Devils and send UConn back to the Final Four.
Kevin Sweeney
The Mullins shot is an easy winner and a moment we’ll replay for years, especially if UConn can somehow finish the job and win a third title in four years. As far as games I was at, the shock of Iowa’s upset over Florida and especially how it went down with a defensive collapse and clutch three by Alvaro Folgueiras was certainly memorable. That it was taking down the defending champion and sending Iowa to the second weekend for the first time in the 21st century only added to the clutch factor.
More March Madness From Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on the SI College YouTube channel.
- Dan Hurley Loved His Wife’s Savvy Move Preventing UConn From Costly Technical Foul vs. Duke
- The 25 Best Men’s NCAA Tournament Buzzer Beaters of the Past 25 Years
- Men’s Final Four Power Rankings: Where Arizona, Michigan, UConn, Illinois Land
- Dan Hurley Explains Away Headbutt, But Referee Roger Ayers Won’t Call Final Four
This article was originally published on www.si.com as March Madness Expert Predictions for the 2026 Men’s Final Four.
