With Selection Sunday in the rearview mirror, March Madness is officially on. Across the country, casual fans and experts alike are building their brackets with the hopes of winning bragging rights and other prizes.
Among those experts are Sports Illustrated’s triumvirate of Bryan Fischer, Kevin Sweeney and Pat Forde, whose brackets are now live—check out the SI College Hoops Bracket Challenge if you think you have what it takes to beat them in the standings.
But for those of you still looking to build your brackets, taking a look at what the experts are thinking can be a great jumping off point, especially when searching for a few upsets or potential Cinderella teams. With that in mind, let's take a look at how Fischer, Sweeney and Forde see the first round playing out.
It might not be the year for the classic No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset
One of the first things most fans look for when filling out their brackets is a No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset in the first round. Judging by recent history, this has been a pretty good play—in three of the past four tournaments, the 12-seeds have gone 2–2 against their higher-seeded opposition in the first round.
But as our experts have it this year, it might be better to look elsewhere for your first-round upsets. Both Fischer and Sweeney have the five-seeds sweeping the 12-seeds in the first round, and Forde has just one such upset—No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech—in the opening round of the tournament.
While such dominant runs are rare, they are not unheard of—in 2023, the five-seeds went 4–0 in the first round, with two of the four teams reaching the Sweet 16.
Nos. 11 South Florida and VCU are getting a lot of love
If you’re taking it easy on the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups this year, have no fear—there’s plenty of potential upsets just a bit further down the bracket. All three of SI’s experts have at least two No. 11 seeds upsetting their first-round foes.
To start, Fischer, Sweeney and Forde all have No. 11 VCU taking down No. 6 North Carolina to open the tournament. It’s worth noting that the Tar Heels will be without star freshman Caleb Wilson, who had season-ending surgery after X-rays revealed a fracture in his right hand. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas also have this one close, with North Carolina just 2.5-point favorites over VCU.
In addition to VCU, the trio of SI experts also all have No. 11 South Florida besting No. 6 Louisville in the first round. This game Vegas sees a bit more in the Cardinals’ favor, with Louisville a 5.5-point favorite heading into tip-off. Also, this is one of the first games of the tournament on Thursday, so if you are interested in getting in on some madness early, it’s a great place to start.
To round out the potential No. 6 vs. No. 11 upsets, Sweeney has No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU in the first round, though the Longhorns will first have to beat fellow 11-seed NC State in their First Four matchup for the right to take on AJ Dybantsa & Co. If Texas can survive that game on Tuesday night, look for them to keep the magic going on Thursday.
It’s safe to consider No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups a true coin flip, and No. 7 vs. No. 10 games close to the same
No one is really looking to the No. 8 vs. No. 9 line for massive upsets—the vast majority of the time the winner of this game is just set to lose to the top seed in the region before the Sweet 16—but it should be emphasized that you really don’t need to overthink these games. They are a true coin flip.
Case in point, nine-seeds actually hold a slight historical edge over their eight-seed opponents in the first round of the tournament, winning at a rate of 51.9% since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. This year, all three SI experts have three nine-seeds moving on in the first round, with the trio agreeing on No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia.
Meanwhile, Sweeney has the seven-seeds sweeping in the first round, but both Fischer and Forde have two 10-seeds winning, including a shared belief in No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky.
Some even bigger upsets if you are feeling bold
For those ready to truly embrace the madness of March, there are a few bolder proclamations in our expert brackets this year.
Sweeney has No. 13 Hofstra taking down No. 4 Alabama in the first round, which would be something of a shocker after the stellar year the Tide have had—although they will be without star guard Aden Holloway for the game.
Elsewhere, Forde likes No. 13 Troy to beat No. 4 Nebraska to open the tournament. That’s the second game of the entire tournament to tip off on Thursday, and the Cornhuskers are currently 12.5-point favorites. If the Trojans take the win, it would be an early sign that we could be in for quite a bit of mayhem.
While No. 13 over No. 4 upsets can feel risky, we’ve seen at least one in three of the past five tournaments, and two such upsets in 2021.
Which Cinderella team does the slipper fit this year?
There’s plenty of Cinderella options this year, and picking the right one really comes down to not only which underdog you believe in, but also which favorite you think might be set to falter.
Fischer has No. 4 Alabama beating No. 1 Michigan in the Sweet 16 to push through to the Elite Eight, while Sweeney is taking No. 4 Arkansas over both No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 Purdue to represent the West region in the Final Four.
Here’s all the upsets our experts have in the first round of March Madness
Bryan Fischer
East: No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville
South: No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson, No. 10 Texas A&M over No. 7 St. Mary’s, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina
West: No. 9 Utah State over No. 8 Villanova
Midwest: No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia, No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky
Kevin Sweeney
East: No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Ohio State, No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville
South: No. 9 Iowa over No. 8 Clemson, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina
West: No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU
Midwest: No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 8 Georgia, No. 13 Hofstra over No. 4 Alabama
Pat Forde
More March Madness from Sports Illustrated
- 2026 March Madness Final Four and National Championship Betting Picks From Sports Illustrated
- March Madness: Four Teams to Avoid in Your Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket
- Ranking Men’s NCAA Tournament Coaches Who Have Never Won National Championship
- Men’s March Madness Expert Predictions: Dark Horses, Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds, Title Winner
This article was originally published on www.si.com as March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament.
