The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2020 NFL offseason with a bitter taste in their mouths. They’ll try to turn the disappointment of their playoff loss into action this offseason in an effort to get better and make a serious run at Super Bowl LV.
In order to do that, Baltimore will need to have a great offseason. That means getting values in free agency and picking the right players in the 2020 NFL Draft to bolster the roster and hopefully patch up their biggest holes. Though both free agency and the draft offer never-ending scenarios that will affect what the Ravens can do, we’ll take a look at what the perfect offseason would look like for Baltimore.
The Ravens are expected to have roughly $27.75 million in available cap space to start, according to Over The Cap. So let’s take a look at how they can free up a little more.
Cutting players:
Baltimore has a number of players who could be on the chopping block as salary cap casualties this offseason. But I feel like two players are pretty much guaranteed to be cut.
Safety Tony Jefferson was replaced well by Chuck Clark and cornerback Brandon Carr is just too expensive given his role as a depth player and floater in the secondary. Cutting both players would add roughly $13 million to the Ravens’ salary cap, according to OTC, giving them $40.75 million to play with.
We’ll also assume guard Marshal Yanda returns for the 2020 season, which won’t free up any additional money but won’t create a new hole for Baltimore to fill. Though if Yanda does retire, that would add another $7 million to the Ravens’ available salary cap, according to OTC.
Dealing with Matthew Judon:
This is a tough one because almost everyone wants outside linebacker Matthew Judon to return. However, with Judon expected to earn a lot of attention in free agency, his price tag is likely going to be really high. We’ve predicted Judon will earn a deal worth $17 million per season, but it could easily go even higher if multiple teams get into a bidding war over him. If that happens, the Ravens aren’t likely going to be able or interested in re-signing him.
As I’ve written before, trading Judon might be the best option here for Baltimore. Letting him go in free agency would only give the Ravens a compensatory pick in return, which they could just as easily lose if they sign other impact free agents. Trading him for a first- or second-round pick seems feasible but even a third-round pick would end up being a good value since it would give Baltimore the best comp pick they could hope for without impacting the actual comp pick formula negatively.
Re-signing players – Defense:
Linebacker Patrick Onwuasor is also likely to get some attention in free agency this offseason. At this point, I wouldn’t think the Ravens would guarantee him a starting job in 2020, which caps how much they’d be willing to spend to re-sign him. If another team is willing to give him a starting job and even the same amount of money, it seems likely that Onwuasor would leave for greener pastures.
Defensive tackle Michael Pierce is another tough decision for Baltimore to make. However, I think he’s the one key pending free agent the Ravens really need to re-sign. Pierce is a key player on Baltimore’s defensive line and with very limited depth there, losing him would open up another big hole we’d have to fill this offseason. Since we’ve estimated Pierce won’t cost a fortune, he seems like the ideal guy to re-sign to a back-loaded contract that minimizes his cap hits in 2020 and 2021.
As noted with Carr when cutting players, I’m not too sure cornerback Jimmy Smith has a place on the roster either. He can still be a stop-gap starter for a defense that needs experience at the position but with both Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on Baltimore’s roster, he’d be a depth player for the Ravens. Just like Onwuasor, that caps his value to Baltimore and points to Smith signing a short-term deal elsewhere.
With absolutely no starters on the roster at linebacker currently, I’d look to give Josh Bynes a one-year deal to return. After playing well last season, he’d be a great option to retain as a potential starter and some insurance if the Ravens can’t get an immediate starter in the draft. Since it took until Week 5 of the regular season for Bynes to sign a deal, it looks as though he could re-sign for around the same base salary he had in 2019.
I’d also look to do the same with defensive end Jihad Ward, who played well for the Ravens down the stretch and likely wouldn’t cost a fortune. A two-year deal seems like a good option to keep him around at a relative value while giving him a chance to hit free agency again at nearly 28 years old.
Re-signing players – Offense:
There aren’t nearly as many offensive players set to hit free agency for Baltimore and a good number of them are either RFAs or ERFAs, which makes re-signing them a lot easier.
Wide receiver Seth Roberts was a good fit for the Ravens’ offense. Though he didn’t add a ton to the stat sheet as a receiving option, he was a great downfield blocker and could still come in handy. If he’s willing to take the same one-year deal Baltimore signed him to last offseason, I think he’d be good experienced depth at a pretty solid value.
Center Matt Skura might be the Ravens’ toughest decision on offense. He’s coming back from a devastating knee injury and isn’t sure if he’ll be ready for training camp. With Patrick Mekari playing well in his stead, it’s tough to give Skura even a second-round tender at an expected $3.28 million for one year. Even the original-round tender of $2.14 million is a little steep if he won’t start next season. But I’d like to keep him around and I’d expect the injury would be enough to keep other teams from poaching him outright, so I’d hand him the original-round tender.
Running back Gus Edwards and offensive lineman Randin Crecelius are ERFAs, which means they’ll only cost $660,000 each to re-sign for 2020. That’s a no brainer for both players but a downright steal for Edwards.
Adding pass rushers:
At this point in the OTC salary cap calculator, I’m left with $32.17 million to work with. OTC is estimating the Ravens’ draft picks will cost just shy of $8 million to sign, though that doesn’t factor in another early-round draft pick for the trade of Judon. Still, it gives us a good base of around $24 million to work with here.
With Roberts and Bynes re-signed as well as Yanda returning for the 2020 season, the biggest hole that needs to be addressed is pass rusher. While it would be tempting to go after the top option on the market, that would eat up nearly all the available cap space and wouldn’t give Baltimore very much depth or two solid starters.
Instead, I think going after two second-tier pass rushers might be the way to go. Grabbing two lesser pass rushers would likely be greater than the sum of its parts while costing around the same amount as just one top pass rusher. That would also give young players like Jaylon Ferguson and Tyus Bowser a chance to step up into bigger roles without having to force a high-priced free-agent acquisition into a ton of snaps.
In this example, I’m looking at guys like Jordan Jenkins (eight sacks and 13 QB hits in 2019) and Jamie Collins (seven sacks and 10 QB hits in 2019). Combined, they’d come in at around $18 million APY.
Baltimore would be left with roughly $7 million remaining after the 2020 NFL draft at this rate. That would be enough to pick up some lesser free agents as needed and to potentially be in the running for a big-name player that becomes available after the draft.
2020 NFL Draft:
The best-case scenario for Baltimore is heading into the 2020 NFL draft without any major needs. Being able to move around to pick up players they love without having to worry about filling a hole on the roster is where the Ravens do their best work.
After re-signing players and picking up two pass rushers in free agency, Baltimore wouldn’t have any dramatic needs that have to be filled. It wouldn’t completely eliminate the Ravens’ needs as Baltimore could still use another starter at inside linebacker, help at wide receiver, an heir for Yanda, and some more depth at outside linebacker. But it would allow the Ravens to go into the 2020 NFL draft able to pick the best player on their board in every round.
