Map shows how Wales could be affected by second wave of coronavirus

A new mapping tool has revealed how Wales could be affected by a predicted second-wave of Covid-19.

While some hospitals have started recording no deaths from coronavirus for the first time since February, the Welsh Government and various health boards are still urging people to remain cautious.

An interactive map, created by Oxford University, highlights hotspots that could see hospitalisation rise again due to the virus.

The map considers data to "calculate the number of individuals at risk of Covid-19 hospitalisation".

You can view the full interactive map, here.

The researchers wrote: "Combining multiple sources, we produce geospatial risk maps on an online dashboard that dynamically illustrate how the pre-crisis health system capacity matches local variations in hospitalisation risk related to age, social deprivation, population density and ethnicity, also adjusting for the overall infection rate and hospital capacity."

According to the map, the Gwent area - home to the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport which was at one time one of the worse hit areas in the UK - looks to be on the lower end of the scale, with an estimated 8.2 "general care" hospitalisations per 1000 people.

The figure for acute care is estimated to be 2.7 hospitalisations per 1000 people.

The area with the worst prediction is Powys, which is expected to see 10 general care hospitalisations per 1000 people, with 3.6 acute care hospitalisations per 100.

Research shows how Gwent could be affected by a second wave (Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science/ University of Oxford/ Nuffield College, Oxford, UK)

It's predicted Powys could have the highest number of hospitalisations (Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science/ University of Oxford/ Nuffield College, Oxford, UK)

Dyfed has the next highest prediction, with 9.3 general care hospitalisations per 1000 people and 3.2 in acute care.

While South Glamorgan, which includes the capital, has a much lower figure: seven general care hospitalisations per 1,000 people, with 2.2 acute care hospitalisations.

The findings featured in BMC Medicine as a research article. It read: "Applying these estimated hospitalisation rates across England and Wales, we show that regional demographic variation will lead to stark spatial variation in expected hospitalisation rate...

"For example, given our assumption of similar infection rates across regions, we observe very high pressures in rural areas in Wales..."

The researchers added: "Hospital capacity is the highest in Cardiff and along the coast, which is logical since they also have the highest levels of population density.

"Yet it reveals a demographically vulnerable middle rural region of Wales, consisting of an ageing population that are simultaneously far away from hospitals and, in particular, from critical care provisions."