A new tool has identified potential future coronavirus 'hotspots' in Merseyside, highlighting how the region could be affected by a second wave.
University of Oxford researchers have named at-risk regions based on the number of vulnerable people and available hospital resources to handle outbreaks.
The tool also considers data of population age, density, ethnicity and social deprivation.
Looking at the map, Merseyside appears to be a medium-risk area, with the region expected to have just under eight (7.9) hospitalisations per 1,000 people in 'general care', with 2.6 in acute care.
According to the MEN, this is better than Cheshire which has a figure of 8.5 and 2.8 for general and acute care hospitalisations respectively.
Lancashire has figures of 8.2 per 1,000 for general and 2.7 per 1,000 for acute, while London has 6.2 and 1.7 respectively.
The tool can break down the results by various categories, with users able to choose between counties or by clinical commissioning groups, which cover individual parts of the region.
Users can then choose between various measurements, including baseline hospital bed capacity (general care), baseline hospital bed capacity (acute care), excess expected hospital demand relative to baseline capacity (general care) and excess expected hospital demand relative to baseline capacity (acute care).
Professor Melinda Mills, author and Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science said: "With additional outbreaks and second waves, thinking not only regionally, but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks, particularly when a lack of track and trace is in place."
Their research has shown areas such as the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire to have some of the highest risk factors. These areas not only have older populations, but also higher levels of social deprivation.
Use our tool to check for coronavirus cases in your local area by adding your postcode
Receive newsletters with the latest news, sport and what's on updates from the Liverpool ECHO by signing up here.
The report, published today in BMC Medicine, said: "We estimate specific pressure points where COVID-19 demand is likely to outstrip the baseline local supply.
"This again includes rural areas in Wales as well as the north east and south west of England where high expected hospitalisation rates combine with relatively low bed capacity. Importantly, these areas are often more isolated and further away from alternative hospital services."
