1) Sexton returning to form would ease Farrell fears
When Warren Gatland named his Lions squad for this tour, the two players he would have least liked to lose to injury would probably have been Billy Vunipola and Owen Farrell. That scenario has materialised and while it remains to be seen whether Farrell will be fit for the first Test, there is suddenly a huge burden of expectation on Jonathan Sexton. When fit and firing, Sexton is a world-class No10 but he, along with many others, struggled in the tour opener and he was not much better off the bench against the Blues. Fortunately for Gatland, Sexton looked far more assured against the Crusaders and having Conor Murray alongside him and Ben Te’o at No12 – team-mates past and present at international and club level – should help. Farrell’s injury is a huge psychological blow but if Sexton performs somewhere near his best it need not be terminal for the Lions.
2) Convenient call-ups risk devaluing the red jersey
Gatland will not be happy Steve Hansen, the All Blacks coach, pre-empted the addition of reinforcements for the Lions but they arrive this weekend nonetheless. Gatland’s reasoning is he wants to protect his Test side, as he did in 2013. Logistically speaking, turning to players from Wales and Scotland – in New Zealand and Australia respectively this weekend – is certainly the most straightforward option but Gatland is in danger of devaluing the Lions jersey. He will not care – his job is to win a Test series – but if he is seconding players who were nowhere near the initial 41-man squad, how will those who just missed out feel when they are leapfrogged for no other reason than geography? As James Haskell has previously said, Lions selection is the difference between “being a good player and a great one” – those red jerseys are not to be handed around haphazardly.
3) Gatland unlikely to spring surprise gameplan
Hansen wasted little time before baiting Gatland once more after New Zealand’s thumping win over Samoa, saying, “he keeps telling us he’s got something up his sleeve other than his arm”. If Gatland does have something he is holding back, we are unlikely to see it against the Maori All Blacks. Far more likely will be a gameplan nigh-on identical to that which worked to such good effect against the Crusaders. Ferocious line speed, aggressive defence, forwards hitting rucks, and half-backs kicking the leather off the ball will be the order of the day. But while it is effective, the Maori All Blacks will certainly know it is coming. If they find a way to negate Gatland’s tactics, it could be a hammer blow to the Lions’ confidence a week before the first Test.
4) Replacements ready to stake claim for places
There are not many surprises in Gatland’s starting XV but the make-up of the bench offers some interesting conundrums. Whether he intended to play Sexton and Farrell together next Saturday must now be put to one side, but Dan Biggar is ready to stake his claim if Sexton struggles in Rotorua. Iain Henderson’s place on the bench is also intriguing – he was so much better against the Highlanders than in Whangarei and can claim a place in the 23 with another strong cameo. Sam Warburton has to go some to force his way into the Test XV but Elliot Daly would appear to be ahead of Liam Williams for the No23 jersey. Kyle Sinckler too seems to be winning the race to act as Tadhg Furlong’s backup but squad places can still be won and lost against the Maori All Blacks.
5) Maori All Blacks to be stern examination
Twelve years ago, the Lions’ defeat by the Maori All Blacks was a hammer blow for the tourists and set New Zealand on the way to a thumping 3-0 series victory. They were a strong side then, just as that are now with nine All Blacks named by Colin Cooper. The fact Damian McKenzie is at fly-half shows the kind of game they want to play while the Lions need no further introduction to Rieko Ioane. New Zealand blew off the cobwebs with an ominously impressive 78-0 win over Samoa and this Maori All Blacks team are littered with players on the fringes of Hansen’s squad. How the Lions fare against them will be a further demonstration of the task that awaits Gatland’s side.
