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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
David Hambling

‘Mango madness’: why does hot weather correlate with an upswing in violence?

A busy beach
A 2024 meta-study of more than 16,000 scientific papers found a 10C increase in temperature typically increased the risk of violence by 9%. Photograph: Carolyn Jenkins/Alamy

In northern Australia they call it “mango madness” or “going troppo”. It’s a seasonal upswing in violence associated with hot weather.

Many studies in the US, Australia and Asia have established that the effect is real and seems to be universal. A 2024 meta-study of more than 16,000 scientific papers found a 10C increase in temperature typically increased the risk of violence by 9%.

There are two theories to explain why this might be. According to the temperature-aggression theory, hot weather increases discomfort, frustration, impulsivity, and aggression, all of which make violence more likely.

The alternative, routine activity theory, says it is because hot weather changes the pattern of daily life. People are more likely to go out and socialise, and rising temperatures bring greater alcohol consumption. All of this increases the opportunities for interpersonal conflicts and subsequent violence.

But the situation is complicated. One Australian study found that aggressive online interactions followed the opposite trend to those in real life. As assaults rose in summer, the angry tweet count dipped. Again, there are several theories, but no accepted explanation.

The Australian concept of “mango madness” may be socially useful though. Blaming an outburst on hot weather offers a way of defusing a situation and reminding everyone to cool down before violence occurs.

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