In his News of the World column and at The Spectator Fraser Nelson becomes the latest to ponder in public the theory that Baron Smooth, grandson of Herbert Morrison, might be tempted to seek Labour's nomination to run in 2012. "Manouverings are already underway," he writes and claims that Ken Livingstone is "telling friends he believes Mandy is his No1 threat."
I should re-emphasise that when I placed my tenner on Mandy for Mayor at 66/1 at the beginning of last month it was purely on a whim inspired by a suggestion from someone who doesn't follow politics: I'd heard no tales of the type Nelson refers to, and haven't since. The more I thought about it, though, the more plausible the Mandy-4-Mayor scenario seemed. Nelson seems to have reached a similar conclusion.
I differ from him, though, over Boris Johnson's likely future moves. Nelson writes:
BoJo became London Mayor for a laugh, and I doubt he'll stand for re-election. The prize BoJo wants is to succeed Cameron in Number 10. That means getting back into Parliament again.
For my money Boris will run again in 2012. I think he relishes the licence the mayoralty gives him (aided by a mostly supine media), would like the glory of presiding over the 2012 Olympics and might find it hard to play second fiddle to anyone - perhaps especially David Cameron - in parliament, whether in the cabinet or not. And Tim Montgomerie makes a good point at Conservative Home:
His chances of ever becoming PM will not be helped if he is seen to have walked away from a re-election challenge. Tory members don't yet think he is Prime Ministerial material. That is most likely to change after eight successful years of governing London (not four).
Sounds about right to me. But note that word "successful".
Update, 21:56 Sunder Katwala too thinks he'll run again in 2012. But:
Were Boris (God help us) to win again: don't rule out an early departure, Sarah Palin-style, some time after the Olympic festivities, so that he could seek to return to the Commons at a General Election in 2014 or 2015.
Now read on.
