Mandatory Covid jabs could cost the NHS up to 73,000 frontline staff, the government’s own impact statement suggested today.
The Department of Health and Social Care accepted there may be a “significant” hit to the health service workforce as millions are told ‘no jab, no job’.
Ministers today announced patient-facing healthcare staff in England will need to have had both doses of vaccine by April 1, unless they have a medical exemption, as a "condition of deployment".
That includes doctors, nurses and dentists as well as cleaners, porters, ward clerks and receptionists. Private healthcare, unpaid volunteers, agency staff and trainees are all included.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said "the scales clearly tip to one side" for mandatory jabs - due to "our imperative to protect the NHS and those services upon which we all rely."
But a government impact statement has now estimated 126,000 health and care staff could refuse to be vaccinated under the policy, without having a medical exemption.
That includes 73,000 staff in the NHS in England in a "central scenario" - 4.9% of the workforce. It also includes 15,000 in private healthcare (4.6%).
And it includes 38,000 in social care (7.6%), where jabs will become mandatory this Thursday. Once natural wastage is included the government estimates this figure at more like 35,000.
The documents do not make clear whether all 73,000 staff would be working on the frontline currently. It appears possible that some are already in back office roles.
It's thought patient-facing staff who refuse to be jabbed will face being reassigned to back office roles or losing their jobs completely.
The impact statement confirmed hospitals will have to pay for “recruiting replacements for workers who may not fulfil the requirement of having both doses of the vaccine”.
This in turn could cause “potential disruption to health and care services”.
The impact statement warned there was a wide range of possibilities of how many health and care staff will get vaccinated in response to the scheme - anywhere from 4,000 to 103,000.
It said there is "significant uncertainty" about the final number of staff affected.
However, it added: "The impact on workforce levels and health and care services could be significant.
"If a proportion of staff decides to leave the NHS, this would put pressure on NHS services.
"This is likely to be more acute in clinical staff groups where there are existing staff shortages and lags in labour supply caused by education and training requirements, but all services are likely to be impacted."
It comes after unions and Labour warned of possible staff shortages.
UNISON today warned some care homes could be forced to shut their doors and others will struggle to meet safe staffing levels.
On the NHS changes, UNISON head of health Sara Gorton added: "This wasn’t something the government needed to do.
“The effective and supportive approach taken by NHS trusts has persuaded the overwhelming majority of health staff to have both Covid shots.
“Now this sledgehammer policy risks doing more harm than good.
“Without knowing what proportion of staff are covered by exemptions, creating a new law seems extreme.
“It will move effort and attention away from caring for Covid patients and clearing the backlog created by the pandemic.”
Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth warned ministers to “proceed with caution”, adding: "We simply cannot afford to lose thousands of NHS staff overnight."
Some MPs sounded caution over the move - but others said it should have happened quicker.
Tory MP Dr Andrew Murrison said: “If this has to be done, then it is better to do it quickly, and by the Spring, clearly we’re going to be past the winter pressures we’re all concerned about.”
Mr Javid warned "it cannot be business as usual when it comes to vaccination", adding: "The first duty of everyone working in health and social care is to avoid preventable harm to the people they care for.
“Not only that, they have a responsibility to do all they can to keep each other safe.”
But Rachel Harrison of the GMB union warned: "Bulldozing this vaccine will exacerbate the already crushing staffing crisis we face across the NHS and ambulance services.
"Both are operating under extreme pressures, after a decade of austerity and cuts, with an exhausted and demoralised workforce who are fearful of what is to come as we head through winter.
"Staff are already leaving their employment and this will certainly force many more to go."
Royal College of Nursing General Secretary Pat Cullen added: "The vast majority of NHS nursing staff received the COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it was offered, having led the vaccination roll out across the UK and continuing to do so with the booster programme.
“With the five months until this decision takes effect, the government and employers must continue to engage with the small minority who have chosen not to have the vaccine.
“This is vital to understanding their concerns, supporting them to understand the importance of the vaccine and to make that important choice."
