Liverpool are going to be among the contenders for the Premier League title according to the underlying numbers generated by each team so far this season - but it is not Manchester United who they should be worrying about most.
Jurgen Klopp's men take on Ole Gunnar Solakjaer's side this weekend in a game that is being billed as a title clash, but Pep Guardiola's Manchester City are, in fact, the team who are showing most promise ahead of the second half of the campaign.
"Goal difference is usually a good indicator of where a team is going to end up at the end of the season," outlined Josh Williams on the Analysing Anfield podcast.
"Liverpool are currently top of the goal difference table with +16, and Manchester United are sixth with +10. They are not winning games to the extent that Liverpool are and they are scraping over the line a little bit more.
"The expected goal difference table: Liverpool are +13.1 and Manchester United are much lower in fifth at +6.3.
"If you look at the expected goal difference per 90 minutes, Liverpool and Man City are out in front, then a little gap to Aston Villa and Chelsea, and then another gap to teams that are more normal, with United leading that ‘normal’ group.
"That is the difference between Team A and Team B in a certain game. Man City are top with an average of 0.82 - the biggest difference, performance-wise, between teams [on a match-by-match basis].
"Manchester United are not winning the performance metrics compared to Liverpool and Man City.
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"That suggests that down the line when things are not flying for them and they don’t get the rub of the green [they might drop points] because their performances are taking care of the results less than Liverpool’s and Man City’s are.
"In terms of performance, they are not even close to Liverpool and Man City, but at both ends of the pitch, they deliver a bit more and bridge the performance gap."
The other major consideration for those in title contention is that the season kicked off late, with all sides almost in a 'false' position at this stage of the calendar year.
Liverpool have played 17 league matches this season, but in 2019/20, their 17th match was a 2-0 win over Watford on December 14, where they went 10 clear at the top of the table.
On the same weekend of the season last year, Liverpool also played Manchester United, winning 2-0. They went 16 points clear with a game in hand at the time, but that was their 22nd game of the season.
Liverpool’s 22nd game of this season isn’t until they host Brighton on February 5.
In essence, the usual time for assessing who the real contenders for the title might be - normally around Christmas time - has not yet arrived this season, despite it being mid-January.
If Manchester United can continue to defy the underlying metrics for another month or so, by which time it would be the Christmas period in any other season, then they would be considered title contenders.
Even then, though, Leicester were in contention on Christmas Day last season and ended up 37 points off top spot by the end of the campaign.
While there are a cluster of teams trying to pull themselves to the summit at this stage of the season, the numbers and analytics still show Liverpool and Manchester City should be the two who pull away.
