As the Premier League season enters the final stretch, the final few weeks look set to be a rollercoaster.
The title race looks set to go down to the wire, as does the race for the top four - and indeed the battle to avoid the drop.
Furthermore there is also a race to the Premier League’s Golden Glove and Golden Boot.
In terms of the latter, as it stands, Manchester City ’s Sergio Aguero leads the way with 18 league goals.
He is followed by four players in the form of Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane, as well as Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Tottenham’s Harry Kane, who all sit joint-second with 17 goals.
With six players separated by just three league goals, it’s bound to be a sprint finish to the award - currently held by Salah - come May.
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But delving into the underlying numbers a little further, who is the real favourite to prevail the season?
Goals and Expected Goals (xG)
Firstly looking at the Expected goals (xG) metric, we can assess the likelihood of each player sustaining their goalscoring form.
For example, if a player has scored just one goal, but his xG for the season is five, there would be an indication that he has perhaps been a little bit unlucky. Over a sustained period or league campaign, usually the player's goal tally would likely even out to reflect their xG.
Equally, if a player's goal tally is far superior to his xG, the likelihood is those numbers aren’t sustainable. Take Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez for example; last season the midfielder's xG total for the season totalled 5.73, yet the Algerian outperformed that total by scoring 12 league goals.
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This season, Mahrez is illustrating an xG of 5.44, yet he has scored just six league goals so far. This exhibits he is still performing at a fairly similar level this season as he was the last, but he is just returning a more ‘normal’ goal return given his output.
Notably, the current leader of the scoring charts is Aguero, who is posting an xG total of 17.37. This illustrates his is outperforming his xG by just +0.63. This would suggest the Argentine is performing at the level he should be given the chances bestowed to him.
Close behind is last season's Golden Boot winner Salah, who is outperforming his xG by just +1.59. Again this displays that the Egyptian is more than likely performing at the level he should be.
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Interestingly, Sterling and Mane are outperforming their xG by some distance. This could indicate that there may be a reduced goal return in the coming weeks even if their performance's were to maintain at the same level they have been this season.
Shot frequency
In terms of shots per 90 minutes, again Aguero is averaging more per 90 minutes than his rivals at 3.89.
His on target percentage is the lowest of all six players however, illustrating he requires a higher quantity of shots in order to return a higher goal scoring output.
Luckily for him, City generate the highest number of quality shots in the league, with their combined xG for the season totalling 76.75.
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Salah again ranks high, as does Kane who has the second highest on target percentage on the list.
Sterling’s lethal goalscoring form is highlighted in his impressive on target percentage of 59.20%.
Where do the players score from?
In order to determine if there are any patterns in a certain player's goalscoring this season, the shot location of their goals has been assessed (thanks to Understat).
Each green dot represents where the shot leading to the goal was taken from, with the size of the circle representing the likelihood - according to xG - of the shot finding the net. The bigger the circle, the more likely it successfully results in a goal.
Aguero has proven himself as not only a threat in the opposition 18-yard-box, but also a danger in and around the area. Yet despite this, the majority of his goals have come from inside the penalty area.
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This isn’t surprising and largely as a result of a regular pattern City have developed for scoring goals in the league this season.
This usually consists of the ball being shifted out wide to an attacking winger who through a blend of either individual skill or raw pace gets to the byline - or in a suitable crossing position - before cutting the ball back across goal or for a striker to apply the finish.
It’s a tactic that has also paid dividends for City’s other key scorer Sterling.
The Englishman has also benefited from City’s attained goal scoring ‘blueprint’.
Not only do the bulk of his goals come inside the penalty box, he can also boast a high number of goals coming from inside the six-yard-box.
For Salah this season, he has tended to score the bulk of his goal from the right side, often cutting in onto his favoured left foot.
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He too benefits from an hugely creative side in Liverpool. The Reds have generated the second highest number of quality shots in the league, with the combined xG for the season totally 65.85.
This season, all of Mane’s goals have come from inside the penalty area, suggesting he is most lethal in the 18-yard-box.
Interestingly, the Senegalese international has yet to score a single league goal from outside the penalty area for the Reds since arriving at Anfield in 2016.
Like Aguero, Aubameyang has proven himself as not only a threat in the opposition 18-yard-box, but in the surrounding areas too.
Notably most of his goals have come through the middle, showing his poaching talent.
Kane has proven himself as versatile goalscorer with a wide range of goals from different areas of the pitch.
His ability to score goals from different situations makes him a virtuoso asset for Spurs and goes somewhat to explaining why he has won two of the previous three Golden Boot races.
What does it mean for Sterling and Augero?
Overall, the underlying numbers suggest it seems unlikely Sterling will be able to prolong his goal scoring hot streak, even if he continues to perform at the impressive levels he has displayed this season.
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As for Aguero, he stands in good stead to win his first Golden Boot since 2015. He boasts a one-goal lead and is outperforming his xG by just +0.63, suggesting there will be no sign of a sustained drop off in the next few weeks.
With City travelling to Fulham this weekend, we will see the Premier League's best attack vs the worst defence. You wouldn't bet against the formidable Aguero and even Sterling adding to their impressive tallies as they pursue Golden Boot success at the conclusion of the season.
