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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Josh Williams & David Alexander Hughes & Matt Addison

Man City made David Silva transfer mistake and Liverpool can capitalise

Liverpool's visit to Manchester City on Sunday promises to be a stellar match-up in which Jurgen Klopp's side could move eight points clear of Pep Guardiola's men, albeit the Citizens will still have a game in hand.

While Liverpool prepared for the fixture with a comfortable and swashbuckling win over Atalanta, Manchester City dispatched of Olympiacos by three goals to nil on the same night.

In a Premier League clash between the two sides expected heading into the season to be battling for the title once again, the game is likely to be won or lost on fine margins.

And Liverpool could have an advantage in that regard, judging by the statistics and numbers that each team have posted early on in the season so far.

Listen to the latest Analysing Anfield podcast by clicking HERE

On the Analysing Anfield podcast, Josh Williams explained that City are still finding their feet after losing influential playmaker David Silva.

"So far this season, for expected goals per 90 minutes, excluding penalties, City are seventh," he said. "Liverpool, for perspective, are top.

"City are second for shots per 90: Liverpool are averaging 17 and City about 15.4. But the reason they are seventh for xG, despite being second for shots, is because the shots they are created are not that good chances.

"You can put a number on that using xG per shot, and their xG per shot is quite bad, which suggests the average shot they are taking is not from a clear-cut location.

"It is not a tap-in as it often was in the past, because they have lost David Silva and have replaced him with Phil Foden and Ferran Torres - good players, but not David Silva, not yet at least."

Gabriel Jesus is now back and scored midweek, but Sergio Aguero is a doubt with his return from a 'muscular' injury deemed more likely to come after the international break than before.

The Brazillian's return should help them in that regard, but he is not as effective and has not caused Liverpool anywhere near as much trouble as the Argentine has in the past.

David Hughes added: "For Pep Guardiola's system to work, they need a proper forward. They have tried to adapt in the past, bringing in the likes of Raheem Sterling into that position, but it is not just about scoring, but about movement.

"Aguero can create space for others inside the penalty area and without him, that has been an issue.

"The average distance from where they are shooting has increased [on average, compared to last season's average] by about three metres. If you are shooting from further away, the chance is of a lesser quality."

With City not creating chances in the same manner that they were previously, not only will that hinder them in one-off matches like this one, but will slow them down over the course of the season unless they address the issue.

Jesus' successful return to action midweek will help, and Aguero's, whether he should return in time for this game or after the internationals, as Guardiola hinted was more likely to be the case, will too.

But the numbers so far suggest City have lost a key attacking weapon and are yet to find an adequate replacement for the departed David Silva - just as they lost out in the title race last season having failed to find an alternative to fellow departed legend Vincent Kompany.

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