It’s been an unusual Premier League campaign so far for Manchester City fans who have yet to see their team inside the division’s top four.
Pep Guardiola’s men sit 10th in the table, albeit having played one game fewer than most of their rivals. They have lost only one of their seven league matches, however, they have secured as many draws as victories - three - which has stunted their progression up the table.
Their attack has been flagged as one issue given that only six sides have scored fewer than their total of ten goals. Yet there are caveats to that, one being the already stated fact that they have played one fewer game, but also another crucial one has been the general unavailability of their two most important strikers, Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero.
At the other end of the pitch, they’ve managed just two clean sheets which is again unusual for a City side that have become accustomed to dominating most opponents they come up against in recent years.
Although that record looks a slight concern on paper, it’s worth noting that clean sheets aren’t always the best method in which to capture how a team’s overall defence is performing.
This is because given the unpredictable nature of football, goals can sometimes derive from fairly non-threatening moments or from low-quality opposition shots. Equally, a side may enjoy a run of clean sheets but also might be conceding a large number of high-quality chances that, but for better finishing from attackers, could have seen them concede several times across the same sequence.
Therefore, If we wanted to analyse City’s defensive performances more accurately this season, then it’s better to utilise their performances in some key underlying metrics.
So far, no side has conceded fewer than their total of nine goals and their combined Expected Goals Against (xGA) total of 8.5 ranks as the fourth-best in the league. Additionally, only Brighton have conceded fewer shots overall than City’s total of 56 against. Even having played one game fewer, these numbers are good. It’s also worth pointing out that 2.6 of that xG came in the freak 5-2 defeat at home to Leicester City.
For comparison, Aston Villa have also conceded nine goals from their seven games so far this season, but with four, they have twice as many clean sheets as City. However, their xGA totals 9.7 suggesting they’ve given up more higher quality chances than Guardiola’s men and they have also conceded 28 more shots.
Therefore despite both teams boasting the same defensive record in terms of goals conceded, the evidence does suggest that City’s defensive form is much more sustainable.
These good underlying numbers added with the fact that only one team has managed to score more than a single goal against Guardiola’s men in one match does suggest that there isn't a lot wrong with City from a defensive point of view.
As the season progresses, we will more than likely begin to see them start securing more clean sheets which will better reflect their all-round defensive displays.
If they can start rediscovering their best form in attack too, then it should only be a matter of team before we see them climbing back towards the summit of the Premier League table.
