Night time politics
It has been such a long rollercoaster day that it is hard to think about the sum of the day’s news. But here goes:
- Turnbull cabinet secretary Arthur Sinodinos had a message for Cory Bernardi, that is the prime minister “loves all members of the Liberal party”. This was designed to rein in and reassure the South Australian senator. Sinodinos delivered the message because Malcolm Turnbull was too busy loving Queensland independent Bob Katter. They met in Brisbane and Turnbull emerged with a verbal agreement that Katter would support supply if it were necessary. This was in return for an as yet nebulous list of demands perhaps involving the Hell’s Gate dam, Indigenous land title, and Galilee rail project (think Carmichael mine). Standard and Poor’s rating agency put Australia’s credit outlook on the watch list, which is the step towards negative if you don’t pull your socks up. Treasurer Scott Morrison used it to tell the new parliament, whoever they may be, we need to get our budget through. Which sounded like he had not listened to the recent election. I think it is back to the drawing board for ScoMo.
- Bill Shorten continued his victory lap, this time in Perth. He will hold a party room meeting tomorrow where the Labor party will officially open nominations for seven days for a leadership spill. (These are the rules Kevin Rudd insisted on.) Since Anthony Albanese ruled out his inclusion, Shorten’s return to the leadership should be a formality. But never say never.
- John Howard came out to defend his legacy after the Chilcot report comprehensively pulled apart the reasons for the US, UK and Australian invasion of Iraq. He, not surprisingly, disagreed with Chilcot’s findings. We believed the intelligence at the time, he said. But Andrew Wilkie, former intelligence officer and now independent MP begged to differ. He said John Howard and Alexander Downer should be held accountable and argued Howard, Tony Blair and George W Bush should be before an international court. Howard just said meh. The Greens will introduce a bill to try to give the parliament power to make the decision to go to war, rather than the executive government.
- Peter Dutton, king of talkback, offered the sage election analysis that the Coalition was the “victim of its own success” – given they had stopped the boats etc.
That’s it from me. Thanks to the brains trust, Katharine Murphy, Gareth Hutchens, Paul Karp, Ben Raue and Nick Evershed.
Bridie Jabour will be with you tomorrow and depending on the electoral lay of the land, I may see you back with #politicslive next week.
Goodnight.
Updated
A new ReachTel poll has found that 65% of voters hope to see more investment in renewable energy from the new government.
Even a majority of Nationals (65.5%) and Liberal (50.4%) voters supported investment in renewable energy.
GetUp environmental justice campaign director, Sam Regester, said renewable energy is not a partisan issue, it’s just a popular one.
“This election global warming deniers and blockers like Andrew Nikolic, Jamie Briggs and Peter Dutton have either lost their seats or suffered huge swings against them,” Regester said.
“If Malcolm Turnbull hadn’t sought to cut a billion dollars from renewables, he may not have lost as many voters as he did at the recent election.”
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There’s some interesting, if not VERY EARLY, movements in the Tasmanian Senate vote. I will let Ben Raue explain from his post on his Tally Room blog.
Here is Ben:
There is a lot of below-the-line votes reporting for Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck, who have the potential to be the first candidates to win seats off the back of below-the-line votes, potentially defeating their party’s preselected ticket. This data also suggests that Labor and the Greens may only get six seats, whereas the party totals suggest seven.
We are now, slowly, starting to see a few polling booths processed, so that informal votes have been correctly assessed and below-the-line votes are assigned to the individual candidate. I’ll look at Tasmania both because there are only five seats to examine, and because of the talk around major party candidates Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck overcoming their unwinnable ticket position on the back of below-the-line votes.
I should stress that this sample is very small – we only have the divisional office pre-poll from three out of five seats, and one of the special hospital booths from each of these three seats. We’re talking about 1,000 votes out of a total of 280,000. I’ll repeat this exercise in coming days to see if it stands.
Firstly – the informal rate drops from 4.7% for the rest of the state to 1.6% in these booths.
Secondly, Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck appear to be getting enough below-the-line votes to have a chance of overtaking their party order. Singh is currently polling 12.2% of the total Labor vote, and Colbeck is polling 11.5% of the total Liberal vote. As a comparison, in 2013 no candidate on either major party ticket polled over 5% of the party’s vote in Tasmania. It’s also the case that the vast majority of below-the-line votes usually go to the party’s lead candidate, yet Singh is polling 2.4 times the vote of the Labor lead candidate, and Colbeck is polling 1.6 times the vote of the Liberal lead candidate.
If you assume this proportion of the vote stays for the rest of the count, Singh would poll 0.54 quotas in her own right, with the rest of the Labor ticket polling just under 4 quotas. If this is the case there would be no votes left for Labor No 5 candidate John Short, and Singh would have a good chance of winning the seat, and would be the beneficiary of any Labor above-the-line preferences.
If we do the same exercise for Colbeck, he would poll 0.474 quotas, and the rest of the ticket would poll 3.65 quotas. This could possibly lead to both the fourth Liberal (Bushby) and Colbeck to win seats, possibly at the expense of either Singh or Greens second candidate Nick McKim.
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Shorten says the S&P statement is a vote of no confidence in Turnbull and Morrison:
The fact that the ratings agencies are putting our credit rating on negative watch, it shows that the last three years, this country has stood still. In many ways the rating agency’s decision to put the triple A credit rating on a negative watch is a vote of no confidence in Mr Turnbull, in Mr Morrison and the way they have been handling the strained economy. The fact that they are relying upon measures that will never pass parliament shows that the ratings agency think this country has not been well run.
Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry into the Iraq invasion.
I think it does highlight for Mr Howard as the prime minister of the time took us to war that he needs to answer questions, if we went to war on the basis of errors of information ... Labor is not ruling out a full inquiry, we will consider our position carefully.
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Shorten says he is confident of Labor candidate Anne Aly winning the seat of Cowan.
He is pleased at the unity in the Labor party, compared with the Coalition.
I couldn’t ask for any more support than I have received.
Bill Shorten, who has toured his new seats in Western Australia, is doing a presser in Perth. A reminder of Turnbull’s description of independents.
I’m sure Turnbull is eating his words when he said that the independents – he called them, dysfunctional, unstable, chaotic and I think he attacked Nick Xenophon as a loner.
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Bob Katter has also raised the issue of land title for Indigenous owners in his talks with Turnbull. That is, to address the problem that Indigenous communities cannot get freehold title over land. This was his answer.
There is no guarantees, there’s no quid pro quo, there is no written agreements here and there can’t be ... What I want to know is if I give you that backing, what is the intentions of your government or put it another way, what is the intentions of your government and I will decide what I’m going to do with my vote. I came away comfortable that there is very serious and real commitment.
(You understand my reluctance to be definitive on any deal.)
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull: these exciting times that remain exciting
- Turnbull says it was a good and constructive decision with Katter.
- He says the S&P statement was a reminder of the need for budget repair.
- He remains confident of forming a majority.
- He maintains a commitment to surplus in four years.
We will unite the nation in a common purpose to continue to ensure that we have strong economic growth, we continue successfully to transition from the mining construction boom that is in a manner that is fair and offers opportunities, strong opportunities for these very exciting times which remain exciting. Perhaps exciting [in] different ways but they are exciting. They are at times of opportunity, a great challenge, and S&P has reminded us that budget repair and responsibility for the public finances are critical.
It was a short statement. No questions.
Updated
It has been one hell of a day really and there are still lots of rats and mice to clean up. I promised to go back to the Scott Morrison-Chris Bowen press conferences on Standard and Poor’s among other things.
The S&P statement basically downgraded the credit outlook – as opposed to the credit rating. It was putting everyone on notice. Get your house in order, so to speak.
Housing loans also got an honourable mention.
This is from the S&P statement:
That said, Australia’s high stock of external debt and structural current account deficits are mostly generated by the private sector and they reflect the productive investment opportunities available in Australia, foreign investor confidence in Australia’s rule of law, the high creditworthiness of its banking system and the positive yield available on highly rated debt.
A portion of Australia’s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s, which was intermediated by the banking sector. Household debt (including debt for small businesses) now stands at more than 180% of household income.
Morrison was asked about tax reforms, specifically relating to housing, given Labor had proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. He would not answer.
You’re raising issues of politics, not policy. The Labor party wanted to increase taxes and that seemed to be popular. I dispute that for a start and I made comments on the election yesterday so I don’t intend to go over those again here today.
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Bob Katter is asked about Pauline Hanson “who wants to ban Islam”.
Katter unplugged:
Let’s deracialise the issue. The government has been bringing 620,000 people into Australia each year. The economy has only got 200,000 jobs and over 200,000 school leavers. I mean is this madness? The whole country’s economy must collapse. I mean clearly, 500,000 people are forced on to the dole each year as a result of the government bringing 620,000 people into the country. As far as I’m concerned, it’s in line with the job creation which will be down to 100,000 and if you go to persecuted minority groups, and I will be very specific, the Christians in the Middle East, the Jews in the Middle East and other parts of the world and the Sikhs in India, they will fill your 100,000.
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Bob Katter said he will be getting his demands in writing soon.
We will be getting things in writing in due course. I can assure you. We will be.
As to what the demands are, this is not an entirely coherent press conference. He wants government money in the Galilee rail project (which is related to the Carmichael mine). There is some talk of ethanol. There is the Hell’s Gate dam project. But I am struggling to understand whether this was definitely in the agreement. Bear with me, the afternoon is moving at a pace.
Hands off the unions says Bob Katter
We have said to him that we are comfortable that his policies are good in these areas, right. We are comfortable that we’re not going to go on some union-bashing crusade. No disrespect to Tony Abbott, I like Tony personally and particularly Peta Credlin, I have great admiration for. They were on a union-bashing exercise and I made it clear there will be bashing come from me as well. We have a close relationship with unions and we don’t apologise to anyone for that.
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Even on a bare majority, don't go to the bathroom
Bob Katter wants to nail the backpacker tax. He makes the point that Julia Gillard’s minority government was quite stable, passed a lot of legislation. But he said they lost him when Labor banned live exports.
Katter also suggested that even if the Coalition gets a bare majority of 76, they still need him.
You try running a government with one vote up your sleeve. Don’t have your mother die because you can’t go to the funeral. Don’t go to the bathroom. You go to the party room and said I missed that vote because I had to go to the bathroom, I don’t think that will fly. I mean, you take the risk of what happened to Julia Gillard. You are flying on a couple of votes, even a little nobody like me can knock you out of the ball game.
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Katter will be "acting with aggression" to stop further foreign ownership
Queensland independent Bob Katter will use his position to stop further foreign ownership.
We will be acting with aggression to stop further ownership of the assets of Australia. If they want to bring development capital in – but that is not what is happening. The capital that is coming now is buying assets that we as a people in Australia have created and they are buying them, quite frankly, at bargain-basement prices and because they have got the financial power and muscle to buy them.
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Katter: If I don't give confidence, we would be back to the polls
There will be a vote of confidence and supply. If I do not give that, then we have a situation in Australia, assuming that Andrew Wilkie and the member for Indi are as good as their words, they said they are going to stay neutral. That being the case, then it’s just, as far as I can see, not humanly possible for the Labor party to form government.
So unless I give this undertaking, then I think we have a very bad situation in Australia which in all probability the government would be forced back to the people.
Updated
Bob Katter, did Turnbull listen to you, do you think?
Well, I think when you are on 74 seats and you need 76, I thought he was listening very closely.
Malcolm, you get confidence and supply, cheers Bob Katter
Bob Katter has just emerged from his meeting with the prime minister in Brisbane saying he has been advised by Malcolm Turnbull that Labor will not be able to form a government.
On that basis, Katter says he will guarantee the Coalition confidence and supply. He doesn’t sound hugely happy about it.
He says he’s a proud union man.
Bob Katter:
If there is the slightest hint of union bashing I assure you all bets are off.
Updated
Meanwhile in the count, Paul Karp reports:
Labor’s lead in Hindmarsh has been whittled down to just eight votes.
On Thursday morning Labor had a lead of 151 in Hindmarsh. The Coalition needs to win Hindmarsh and one more of Cowan, Capricornia, Flynn and Herbert to win majority government.
Labor’s candidate in Hindmarsh, Steve Georganas, told the ABC: “I think we may go down a little bit more while we count postals and then turning it around with the absentees.”
He estimated there were 5,000 absentee votes and about 2,500 postal votes yet to be counted. “But look, it’s on a knife edge and whoever wins it will win it by a handful of votes.”
John Howard to journalists: don't put Hanson in a special corner, she will play off that
Howard:
Everybody’s got to accept that to sort of put her in a special corner is stupid and all it does is enhance her position. I watched this debate back in 1998 and1999 and the more she was attacked, the more popular she became because those attacks enhanced her Australian battler image and she plays off that. I think you all know that and you should understand that when, if I may say so, with great respect, when you write about her.
John Howard: no good making Hanson a particularly scorned species
Howard makes the point that anyone who believes in freedom of religion cannot make distinctions between churches mosques or synagogues. And that he completely disagrees with Pauline Hanson’s policy of a royal commission into Islam. But.
Let’s not resort to all of these isolating remarks. That gets nowhere but that includes, may I say, Pauline Hanson is entitled to the same respect. People have voted for her and there’s no good saying she’s a particularly scorned species. That doesn’t achieve anything. You have to recognise that people voted for her.
John Howard: disagree with Hanson but don't isolate her
Question to John Howard: Do you agree with Mr Turnbull that Pauline Hanson is not a welcome presence? What is your response to the fact that she looks like she is going to have an equal bloc in the Senate to Nick Xenophon?
Howard says anyone who is elected should be respected for that. Given Howard was the prime minister the first time Hanson appeared, he disagreed with many of her views but said it was wrong to brand her supporters as racist.
I don’t agree with some of her views on foreign investment. I didn’t agree with her when she said we were being flooded by Asians because we weren’t, and I didn’t agree with her when she said that Aboriginal people weren’t amongst the most disadvantaged in our community because those things were manifestly wrong but I did understand that she was articulating the concerns of people who felt left out and I was very critical of people who branded everybody who supported her as a racist because that is nonsense.
We are not a racist country and I wish people would stop reaching for that adjective whenever they want to isolate somebody who they don’t agree with. We’ll get nowhere doing that, absolutely nowhere.
Updated
Howard to Cory Bernardi, stay in and fight
John Howard:
If you’re a bit worried about the party, stay in and fight. Don’t start talking about separate movements. Stay in, fight and argue your case because the Liberal party is – as I’ve always said – a combination of small L liberals and conservatives. Nothing wrong with that, I’m a combination of small L liberalism and conservatism, I think you’d know from the stances I took on various issues as I had a very liberal, even economic approach, but a conservative approach and retain a conservative approach on social issues and foreign affairs and I don’t apologise for that and never will. I say to people who feel this or that kidney of the party is being ignored, you stay in and fight, you don’t start wandering off the reservation.
Updated
Howard says he did not write any memos to George W Bush similar to the Blair memos – (That he was with the US, “whatever”).
Asked if he would apologise to families, Howard said:
Well, as I understand it, there were no battle deaths in Iraq but obviously I am sorry for anybody – for the wounds or injuries that anybody suffered. That applies no matter whether a military conflict is a matter of controversy or not but if you’re saying to me do I apologise for the decision that I took, the core decision? Well, I defend that decision. Of course I defend it. I don’t retreat from it. I don’t believe, based on the information available to me, that it was the wrong decision. I really don’t.
Updated
Howard rejects Chilcot’s assessment that if the diplomatic efforts continued, the French and Russians would have agreed.
The idea that is implicit in what Chilcot said, if you just kept going eventually the French and the Russians would agree. They weren’t going to agree. That is why at the time I said the Labor party had decided to outsource our foreign policy to the French and the Russians.
Updated
Someone follows up, saying you put monetary policy in the hands of the Reserve Bank. Why not the power to go to war?
You want to hand everything over to unelected bodies? That’s why the British voted to leave the European Union.
John Howard does not agree the power to go to war should be taken out of the hands of the executive and given to the parliament (as the Greens propose).
Howard: more reinforcement would have improved Middle East instability
John Howard on Islamic State:
Isis, to a large extent, came out of the confluence of forces coming out of Syria, joining with forces in Iraq and I might remind you that after the successful surge overseen by General David Petraeus which the Bush administration undertook, Iraq had entered a period of relative stability and had also entered a period where nationwide elections were carried out despite intimidatory threats of many. There is a view which I think has a lot of merit that if the process or the aftermath of the surge had been reinforced by a greater continuing western particularly American presence, the situation would have been lot more stable.
Updated
John Howard does not share the view that Islamic state grew out of the Iraq invasion.
I don’t share the view that the terrible conflict in the Middle East is the direct consequence of the operation in March of 2003. I don’t share that view.
John Howard: there was no lie, there were errors of intelligence
Howard:
In the years that have gone by there’s been this constant claim that we went to war based on a lie. There was no lie. There were errors in intelligence but there was no lie and can I also make the observation that the Chilcot report imposes a standard of beyond doubt. Can I offer the view that when you’re dealing with intelligence it’s very, very hard to find a situation where advice is beyond doubt. Sometimes if you wait for advice that is beyond doubt you can end up with very disastrous consequences.
Updated
John Howard says while it was subsequently found not to be the case, the advice was there were weapons of mass destruction.
It was the judgment not only of the joint intelligence committee in the United Kingdom, and that was informed principally but not only by MI6 but also the national intelligence assessment of October or November of 2002 in the United States which is a distillation of the views of all of the American intelligence agencies including the CIA was that Iraq did possess weapons of mass destruction.
Updated
Context is everything, says John Howard
[Chilcot’s] views are naturally informed by subsequent events. We are all informed by subsequent events but as somebody who’s been in a decision-making position in relation to these matters, I make the obvious point that you make judgments based on the information available at the time. Context is everything, as a wise man once said, and it’s very important to keep that in mind.
His view seems similar to Tony Blair.
Updated
John Howard is speaking about the Chilcot report. He makes the caveat that he has not read the very large report entirely.
He does not think another inquiry is necessary.
Updated
Bob Katter: prayers to the good lord
Here is a little bit of Bob Katter from a release today:
The financial oppression of the elderly, the struggling abandoned young families will be addressed
It looks like we’ll be in a very powerful position.
We will be saying our prayers to the good Lord and we hope we can get enlightenment through to the people to have to date exercised power in Canberra.
Bob Katter and John Howard are both coming up in separate press conferences shortly.
Just a quick take from the chief economist of AMP Capital, Shane Oliver, before doubling back to Bowen and Morrison.
Being put on negative credit watch by a ratings agency is not surprising. Australia has now seen years of slippage in returning the budget to surplus and the messy election outcome threatens more slippage whichever way it goes.
In short, a downgrade is not disastrous but it would be a bad sign for Australia.
Of course being put on negative watch is not the same as a downgrade and a country can remain on a negative outlook for up to two years without being formally downgraded.
But I suspect it’s probable that a formal downgrade will follow unless the new government is able to hold the line on the budget deficit projections which will be hard given the likely state of the Senate.
The $A fell slightly on the news from around $US0.753 to around $0.747 but has since recovered to around $US0.75. Bond yields were little changed.
Updated
Chris Bowen is asked, given the cost of Medicare’s growth into the future due to demographics (ageing population), do you need further revenue measures to pay for it?
And we have. We led the debate on negative gearing, capital gains tax reform, high income super, we were talking about this 18 months ago, announcing detailed policies. The now treasurer railed against it, tobacco [tax], and we have led that. If you’re asking will we support an increase in the GST, the answer is no.
Updated
Bowen is asked whether Labor will support more of the government’s savings measures. He says we have supported some, not others. Yet the Coalition is still relying on savings which will not pass the parliament.
Scott Morrison’s budget is based on those measures passing as well as highly heroic assumptions on things like the iron ore price. They will not pass and it is about time he was honest about it to the parliament and to the people.
Chris Bowen is asked, given the statement, is now the time for a banking royal commission?
I think those two issues are completely unrelated, with respect. The ratings agencies have expressed no concerns about a royal commission into the banks.
Updated
Chris Bowen:
The Liberal and National parties said there was a budget emergency and that they that they would be the party to fix it and of course what we’ve seen is three years of policy missteps, false starts and missed opportunities, particularly since Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison took the reins we’ve seen a lack of strategy and a lack of coherence in their economic approach.
Chris Bowen: Today is a sombre day for the Australian economy
There is a whole lot more of Scott Morrison which I will bring you in a minute but Chris Bowen is on now.
Today is a sombre day for the Australian economy. Of course, Australia’s AAA credit rating is not being downgraded today but there is a clear indication from Standard and Poor’s that they are deeply concerned about the fiscal situation. And it has made the likelihood of a downgrade increase. Of course, during the recent election campaign, on behalf of the Labor party, I warned the AAA credit rating was under real pressure. I said that no matter who was receiving the incoming treasurer’s briefing, it would contain the same information, that action was needed to deal with the AAA credit rating.
Updated
Wouldn’t fiscal consolidation, treasurer, though, be helped if you would embrace tax reform and look to boost the revenue outlook highlighted by S&P with measures to broaden the base of GST or increase the rate in other tax reform measures to increase the revenue?
Scott Morrison:
The budget actually had a number of those and particularly in relation to superannuation which, again, was clearly not a measure we put out there because we thought it would be popular. We put it out there because we thought it was necessary.
On the GST, he says the Coalition looked at it and the numbers didn’t add up.
Updated
What prospect is there for budget repair given you will have to talk straight with the crossbenchers to get bills through parliament?
Scott Morrison:
S&P are saying that they’re concerned about that, clearly. They’re concerned that the outcome of the election – not the budget, not the policies in the budget or the actions of the government – but the outcome of the election makes them concerned that the pace of fiscal consolidation may be post-poned and that’s why I say, as an invitation more than anything else to the parliament as a whole, is this is something we have to work on together.
(I’ll do a factcheck on this claim.)
Updated
Morrison note to parliament: credit agencies are watching
Scott Morrison:
The parliament will return once a government is formed, budgets will be taken through the parliament and there will be keen eyes watching in rating agencies to see how the parliament responds to ensure that we can maintain the trajectory that the government has set out so that is the consequence of today.
Updated
Question to Morrison: Is this your banana republic moment?
No, I don’t think it’s a time for those sort of alarmist type comments.
Updated
Scott Morrison: this is why we have to live within our means
Scott Morrison says the S&P statement provided “important context” for an incoming government, setting out the reality of fiscal and global economic environment.
This is why we have been saying we need to live within our means, he says. It is an important reminder.
Fiscal consolidation cannot be postponed or slowed ...
What they’re saying here today so what this means is that our credit rating remains at AAA. That is unchanged as of today ... I think it is important then that the parliament and the government, which ever should be formed, bears this keenly in mind as they work through these issues over the weeks and months ahead.
Updated
- Coalition 71 + 2 leading = 73
- Labor 66 + 2 leading = 68
- Others 5
- Four tight:
- Capricornia – Labor leading but projected to lose most of that lead. Very close.
- Flynn – Labor ahead by 1000 but doing terrible on postal votes so projected to lose by 1500. Lot of room for error in that seat.
- Forde – LNP ahead by 265, projected to get up to 657
- Herbert – Labor ahead by 620, projected to lose by 362
- If Labor holds two of these four, the figures will be 75-70 to the Coalition. If the Coalition can win three they get a majority.
Updated
Scott Morrison is coming up shortly. So is Chris Bowen, in a different room obviously.
On an entirely separate matter, our election analyst Ben Raue has called Chisholm for the Liberal party. That means our count is Coalition 71, Labor 66, with five independents/minors. The rest in doubt.
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Updated
Here is a snippet from the S&P statement:
The sovereign credit ratings on Australia benefit from the country’s strong institutional settings, its wealthy and resilient economy, monetary policy flexibility, and low government debt.
The country’s high external and household indebtedness, as well as vulnerability to weak commodity export demand, moderate these strengths.
We are revising the rating outlook on Australia to negative from stable because we believe that without remedial action the government’s fiscal stance may no longer be compatible with the country’s high level of external indebtedness. We are also affirming the ‘AAA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Australia and Efic.
Updated
Standard and Poor's moves Australia's credit outlook from stable to negative
The ABC is reporting credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has lowered Australia’s credit outlook from stable to negative on its triple A credit rating “as the political uncertainty extends”.
So the key point here is it is not a lower credit rating but it is a warning that the credit rating is on watch.
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Great kid.
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If they speak, Xenophon says will talk to Katter about the following: manufacturing jobs, boosting the agricultural sector, “how do we ensure that the regions develop, how to ensure that manufacturing in this country is not hollowed out”.
Nick Xenophon says his focus is the steel industry.
Q: Do you believe the budget will have to be radically overhauled given the makeup of the Senate and many of these measures may not get through?
I think the inevitable consequence of the election result – and this affects both sides of politics – is to to move the country to the political centre. I think that is a good thing.
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John Howard is speaking on the Chilcot report at 1pm.
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Nick Xenophon has said he is keeping in touch with other crossbenchers including Bob Katter and Jacqui Lambie.
He wants a “clear national interest test when it comes to our foreign investment”.
He makes the point that any deal he makes with Malcolm Turnbull would be in consultation with Rebekha Sharkie:
Unlike some other micro-parties we have seen in the parliament, we do things differently. We have a strong consultative approach.
(This goes to previous criticism of Xenophon caucusing “in the mirror” while shaving. This is the new Nick.)
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Andrew Wilkie: Howard, Blair and Bush should be in an international court
Andrew Wilkie on the 2003 Iraq invasion:
We know this now more clearly than ever that the Howard government took us to war on a lie. Every time it said that Iraq had a massive arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and it was cooperating with al-Qaida it knew that that was not the case, that it was either clearly not the case or at best for them it was ambiguous. They took us to war on a lie. No wonder John Howard and Tony Blair and George W Bush do stand accused of war crimes. I’d like them to see an international court. I would like them to defend their position and try to prove their innocence because all of those people who do accuse them of war crimes, I think make a pretty compelling case.
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Andrew Wilkie: no deal because more important to be a man of my word
Andrew Wilkie has been asked whether he will do a deal – notwithstanding his election promise to do no deals with a minority government.
It seems we can’t avoid the election so we might as well go there. I have made it absolutely clear and I’m steadfast in this that I will not enter into any formal deal with any party to allow them to form government.
I went to the 2013 election with that commitment. I went to the 2016 – this year’s election – with that commitment. It featured prominently in a lot of my advertising material, campaign material. And, as tempting as it is, as beneficial as it might be for me to enter into some sort of deal, more important, much more important, is that I be a man of my word.
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Wilkie: the decisions to wage war are not made entirely on intelligence advice
Andrew Wilkie did not talk about an Iraq invasion inquiry with Malcolm Turnbull but he made the point that the prime minister already knows his views.
I will make a point in the parliament of highlighting the Chilcot inquiry and its findings and try to use that as something to leverage off, to bring about an Australian inquiry. There have been two Australian inquiries. But of course the terms of reference of both of those inquiries were very narrow, they were basically prepared by the Howard government. And they both had some success in shifting the blame to the intelligence agencies. And, yes, there were problems withthe intelligence material that was provided to government. But decisions to wage war are not made entirely on intelligence advice. They’re based on the advice of a whole lot of people and a whole lot of stakeholders. So we need a broader inquiry.
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Malcolm Turnbull is meeting with Queensland independent Bob Katter.
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Andrew Wilkie says John Howard and Alexander Downer need to be held to account
Andrew Wilkie is scathing:
Until we have an effective inquiry into the invasion of Iraq, until we do that, then people like John Howard and Alexander Downer and others won’t be properly scrutinised the and held to account.
Until we have a proper inquiry into the Iraq war, then we won’t learn the lessons to prevent or to help prevent such a disaster again in the future.
Until we have a proper inquiry into the Iraq war, we won’t fully understand the reforms that are needed in our parliamentary system to remove the unrestrained power from prime ministers to declare war and to have us join in in the invasion of another country.
It is true that the invasion of Iraq and the war that has happened ever since we we have been an active player in, a proponent for, is the biggest foreign policy and security blunder in this country’s history.
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Bali bombing, Lindt cafe siege were result of Iraq invasion – we need an inquiry
Andrew Wilkie:
The Bali bombing of 2005 would not have occurred if we haven’t have joined in in the invasion of Iraq. The Lindt cafe siege would not have occurred if we hadn’t helped create the circumstances for the rise of Islamic State, which would appear to have been a motivation for the person involved in that siege. I think the British have given us a really good exemplar of the sort of inquiry that we need in this country.
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Key crossbencher Andrew Wilkie says leaders during Iraq war have 'blood on their hands'
Andrew Wilkie goes further:
The fact is that the invasion of Iraq and the start of a war that continues to this day, not only did it turbocharge al-Qaida back then but it created the circumstances for the rise of Islamic State ... So the terror threat that we face in this country right now is a direct result of the decision by the Australian government under John Howard in 2003 to join in that invasion. Frankly, there are a number of political leaders who in my opinion have blood on their hands.
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Andrew Wilkie on Chilcot report: damning and every bit as relevant to the Australian government
It is a damning report. It is by far the best inquiry, the most robust and thorough inquiry that has yet been conducted in any of the coalition of the willing countries into the invasion of Iraq and the start of a war, which, frankly, continues to this very day. Now, the Chilcot inquiry into the behaviour of the British government and its findings are about the behaviour of the British government. But, as far as I can tell, all of the main findings are every bit as relevant to the US government under then president George W Bush and the Australian government, under then prime minister John Howard.
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Peter Dutton: We are victims of our own success
Let’s file this in the #youknowitmakessense category.
“In part, I think we are victims of our own success,” he said.
The fact that we stopped boats, got children out of detention, we’re cancelling visas of bikies and others to make our community a safer place and essentially the issue had gone off the radar.
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Greens want parliamentary approval when Australia takes part in any war
The Greens senator Scott Ludlam wants an inquiry into Australia’s participation in the Iraq war in light of the Chilcot review. This is something the Greens have asked for before.
The Greens will also reintroduce their war powers bill as soon as parliament returns, requiring parliamentary approval when Australia takes part in any war.
Our own decision makers must be held to account for their involvement in the conflict and our parliament given the power to decide when we go to war ...
The report confirms that UK leaders lied to the public about their reasons for going to war. We must now ensure that those leaders that led to Australian engagement in the conflict, particularly then prime minister John Howard, are held to account.
The Greens call on the government to initiate an urgent independent inquiry into Australia’s involvement in the Iraq war. The failures highlighted in the Chilcot report are not isolated to the United Kingdom alone and Australia must urgently consider the role it has played in this disastrous military intervention.
The report also illustrates the critical need for the parliament to have the power to decide when to deploy Australian troops to overseas conflict. The only way to be sure there is accountability and scrutiny is for the parliament to decide.
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Turnbull: I am confident of forming government in our own right
The full Malcolm:
At the moment, and I can just say to you that I am very confident, very confident indeed that we will form government. We will form a majority government in our own right but I am, of course, talking to the crossbenchers as well, as I would do regardless of what our own numbers in the house amounted to.
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Brisbane champion, that's enough about you ...
I have more words from Malcolm Turnbull, who loves all members of the Liberal party.
We have the full quotes now from Turnbull and that swing in Queensland he was talking about? It was a swing in Brisbane. He likened the success of the Brisbane MP, Trevor Evans, to his own in Wentworth. And then, well, he turned the conversation to Me.
You [Evans] were preselected late in the day, as you know, and this is a marginal seat. You’ve made it less marginal, I might say. And over time you can build on that.
I mean I did the same thing in Wentworth, actually. It was the most marginal seat in NSW in 2007 and now it’s got a solid majority. So, over time, the electors will get used to you, you know, and they will become even more fond of you. They will become even more fond of you than they are now.
But the volunteers have done a great job so I want to thank you all for your effort. It is a very, very big achievement. Can I just add something else. It was particularly important in this election, it’s always important but our opponents ran a very, very aggressive ground campaign. Very aggressive ground campaign, you know, they had the big Medicare lie, which was, you know, they were pushing very hard directly, you know, person to person. The robocalls and text messages and so forth.
So we needed, more than ever, strong, grassroots support, strong support from volunteers on the ground. And you guys delivered that and delivered it very, very effectively here in Brisbane where, as you know, we’ve had a swing to the party, which is a phenomenal achievement.
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This is our latest summary from Ben Raue, our election analyst.
70 Coalition
66 Labor
2 Coalition likely to win (Chisholm and Cowper)
2 Labor likely to win (Cowan and Hindmarsh)
5 others
5 extremely close (Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Gilmore, Herbert)
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Malcolm Turnbull has taken a leaf out of Bill Shorten’s book to do a victory lap of sorts around the Queen Street mall in Brisbane. He met with the new MP for Brisbane, Trevor Evans, the MP for Ryan, Jane Prentice, the MP for Bonner, Ross Vasta, and the MP for Bowman, Andrew Laming. They also had a lot of the volunteers and apropos Katharine Murphy’s piece, he notes that grassroots volunteers are the key to elections.
He says the swing to the party was a phenomenal achievement in Brisbane.
He says he is very confident that the Coalition can form a majority government in their own right.
I am talking to crossbenchers as I would do regardless of what the numbers in the house amounted to.
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Malcolm Turnbull is in Brisbane to meet Bob Katter and do a bit of a street walk with his triumphant members. Looks like Shorten is setting the vibe.
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Phil Coorey of the Fin Review has called the election.
Malcolm Turnbull is assured of forming government – possibly in his own right – after two more seats fell the Coalition’s way and it two others swung its way.
With the Coalition now sitting on 72 seats, which is four short of an absolute majority of 76, the prime minister, nevertheless, continued to prepare for a hung parliament by scheduling face-to-face meetings with lower-house independents ...
As minds inside the Coalition turn towards governing again, sources confirmed that Mr Turnbull, who lost three junior ministers at the election, is likely to promote up-and-coming conservatives Zed Seselja and Michael Sukkar, on the dual basis of merit and that their elevation will help ease the factional tensions that have exploded since the election.
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Some more from the former Labor opposition leader Simon Crean’s address to the press club in 2003, on the Australian Politics website.
As I speak, we are a nation on the brink of war.
A war we should not be in.
A war to which 2,000 of our fighting men and women were committed many months ago but were told about last Tuesday.
A war to which we are one of only four countries prepared to join the US in putting troops on the ground, despite claims of a coalition of up to 30.
A war which, for the first time in our history, Australia has joined as an aggressor.
Not because we are directly threatened.
Not because the UN has determined it.
But because the US asked us to.
And he made this point:
The war is wrong because resolution 1441 does not allow a unilateral attack
One of John Howard’s excuses for this war is the claim that resolution 1441 authorises a unilateral attack on Iraq.
It does no such thing.
Resolution 1441 was passed on the specific promise that the matter would be returned to the security council for decision about any military action to enforce it.
It unanimously set out a process for disarming Iraq through the UN. It said that:
- Any breach reported by Hans Blix of Mohamed El Baradei would be reported back to the security council.
- The security council would then decide what action would be taken.
The resolution would never have received unanimous approval if it gave authorised military action without a further resolution.
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The prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, and the cabinet secretary, Arthur Sinodinos, have spoken on Radio National on their regular program The Crunch.
Asked about Cory Bernardi’s moves to organise a grassroots conservative movement, Sinodinos explained Bernardi is trying to “mobilise activists on our own side to help counter” progressive groups such as GetUp.
The other part of what he’s saying is that he wants more love from the prime minister. My message to Cory is the prime minister loves all members of the Liberal party. And, often the irony here, is that the prime minister gets accused on one level by Labor of embracing the right of the party too much and then others say he’s not embracing them enough.
Sinodinos said the Liberal party is a “broad church” and Turnbull is “the right sort of leader” to straddle the liberal and conservative wing of the Liberal party.
Host Fran Kelly asked whether one in four Australians voting for minor parties or independents is “the new normal”. Bowen explained it was caused by less ingrained loyalty to the major parties.
This is not a new thing that people are less tied to their family’s political tradition. A few decades ago, you voted the same way as your parents and it was passed on from generation to generation. That doesn’t happen any more, and that’s a good thing. It means people are going through the process of determining the right approach for the future of the nation.
Sinodinos said the electorate “is becoming more fragmented over time, but any government that listens will be rewarded”.
Both say that stable majority government is still possible in the Australian political system but, unsurprisingly, Sinodinos thinks the Coalition will do so this time, and Bowen does not.
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Ed Husic has told Sky that Bill Shorten will remain leader.
Labor caucus to meet on Friday
Morning everyone, just a quick look forward. The Labor caucus meets in Canberra on Friday for the first time since the election. Given Anthony Albanese has now retreated, Bill Shorten appears to be the only candidate for the Labor leadership. I’ll need to check the new rules for election of the leader. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet but the party may still have to open nominations for a period of time as a formality. I’ll check that during the course of the day and let you know. Onwards. Upwards.
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Julie Bishop’s argument is misleading. The opposition leader at the time of the 2003 Iraq war was Simon Crean. There was an argument within Labor about the war but his stance was clear. This is the top of his speech in reply in parliament:
The statement by the prime minister is his argument for war, not a plan for peace.
It only took the prime minister until only the second page of his statement to conclude that the only possible outcome is war.
There are several things on which we agree.
Our total support for the brave men women of the Australian defence forces and their families.
Non-proliferation is a critical security issue.
Saddam Hussein must disarm.
The issue of Iraq cannot be seen in isolation from the broader security issues that confront the Middle East, particularly the need for peace in Israel and Palestine.
The authority of the UN must be upheld.
But this statement is a justification for war, not a plan to secure the peace, and it is on this point that the prime minister and I fundamentally disagree.
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Julie Bishop on Chilcot: it was the best information at the time
The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, has responded to the Chilcot report. She said the then Howard government (of which she was a backbench member) had made the decision on the best information available at the time.
Well it was based on information, the best information at the time. I was in the party room. I recall the information that was presented to us. It was the best information that was available and we took a decision at the time. Of course the government takes responsibility for all decisions that a government takes and we take responsibility for this one.
David Koch: Can we expect an apology, do you think an apology is needed?
That’s a matter for John Howard but the Australian government, both Labor and Liberal, the Australian parliament would take responsibility. I recall very well at the time Kevin Rudd urging us to continue to support the United States so it was a bipartisan position.
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Adam Bandt predicts Coalition will not reach 76 seats
The Greens MP Adam Bandt has been speaking on ABC’s Radio National.
Bandt conceded the Greens are “very disappointed” to have lost South Australian senator Robert Simms as the party’s parliamentary representation went backwards for the first time in 18 years.
But Bandt was upbeat about the fact the Greens were “knocking on the door of winning more lower-house seats” in Melbourne.
Bandt trumpeted the party’s “tremendous achievements”, including his re-election with an increased vote in Melbourne, a 10% swing in Batman and coming within a few points of winning in Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports (well, a few points short of Labor with a hope of overtaking the Liberals to win).
To win a seat in the lower house against the combined might of Labor and Liberals, the two-party closed shop of politics, is a difficult thing to do.
Bandt also talked up the prospect of progressive reforms in the new parliament including the crossbenchers pushing for democratic reform on political donations, MPs’ entitlements and a federal anti-corruption body.
He said it was “very unlikely” the government would reach 76 seats.
It’s going to rely on the crossbench for stability ... and we’re in quite a strong position collectively.
Asked about the prospect of passing a same-sex marriage bill instead of holding a plebiscite, Bandt said he thought the election result may prompt “a rethink within Liberal party about whether sending Australia people back for another vote is really the best thing to do”.
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Good morning and welcome to the #politicslive raft
We awake this morning to find Malcolm Turnbull glad-handing the crossbenchers as the Australian Electoral Commission continues the count. I will have some seat news to you shortly but, as of this morning, the AEC still has Forde, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Capricornia listed as close. All but Hindmarsh are Queensland seats which tells you a lot about why Bill Shorten spent so much time in that state.
The Liberal party, meanwhile, is suggesting the Coalition could form a bare majority. Malcolm Turnbull is taking out the insurance by meeting with the crossbenchers. Nick Xenophon went to Sydney yesterday and Turnbull is meeting Katter in Brisbane today.
Meanwhile Senator Cory Bernardi is trying to be helpful by forming the Australian Conservatives.
He told the Australian his priority was “to save the Liberal party”.
I sincerely hope the result of the movement is to be a conservative life raft and save the Liberals … It’s more important than ever that we unite Australian conservatives who share many views regardless of their party affiliation. If you believe in limited government, traditional values, defending our culture and heritage, lower taxes, a stronger nation, a stronger economy and plain old common sense then you have a lot in common with millions of others.
There is some worry inside the party that the conservatives cannot beat the ground armies on the progressive side of politics.
With that in mind, Katharine Murphy has been investigating the Labor campaign, digging into their campaign to see if the Liberal concerns are justified. Here are a few numbers from Murph’s story.
On the afternoon and evening of Thursday 30 June – 48 hours before Australian voters went to the polls – Labor’s field operation for the 2016 election campaign made 62,000 phone calls to voters in its targeted seats.
Let me repeat that. One afternoon and evening: 62,000 phone calls. In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Labor logged 50,000 individual conversations with voters in targeted seats.
The final push by Labor’s field operation was predicated on the judgment that one in four voters would only make up their minds in the final 72 hours, so that was the time when contacts with voters would be most productive.
Some more metrics. The Labor party’s national field operation for 2016 comprised 15,000 volunteers, the culmination of a recruitment drive that had gone on behind the scenes for the best part of three years.
Some of these people were party members. Some were more passive supporters – people recruited after interacting with the ALP on Facebook or some other social media site, following up with people who had signed petitions, or had sought to be on the party’s email contact list.
I would be interested to hear some more from readers, if they were involved with either campaigns, or those of minors/independents. Or if you were called by a real live person for a conversation before the election.
The big global story is the Chilcot report into Britain’s involvement in the Iraq war. Rest assured we are combing through the report for references to Australia’s involvement.
You can catch me on Twitter @gabriellechan or Facebook. Let’s press on.
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