Politics this afternoon
- Today, with the Coalition back in government, senior frontbencher Christopher Pyne had a message for chest-beating recalcitrants on his side of the house. He described the complaints of unnamed sources as “cowardly”. Put up or shut up.
- Malcolm Turnbull wrote to the governor general to inform him that he could indeed form a government. I’ll get back to you with the details of the swearing in, Pete. Cosgrove, meanwhile, jetted out to France to celebrate Bastille Day with the French.
- The National party is meeting on the morrow for a party room debate before negotiations between Barnaby Joyce and Malcolm Turnbull to nut out the Coalition agreement. The Nats are maintaining the deal should be secret. This would be strange indeed, given it would be hard for the Nats to argue any achievements to their voters.
- But the Nats do seem confident of getting another spot in Cabinet, with the maintenance of or slight rise in their numbers – compared with the decimation in the Liberal ranks.
- Bill Shorten thinks the Liberal National Coalition agreement should be made public. But I’m not sure they will listen to him.
- Shorten also wants an independent review into the government’s superannuation changes, particularly retrospectivity. This would aid the parliament to decide what to do about the changes. He says Labor will support budget measures which are fair.
That is it on this Monday and barring any large developments, that is it for the blog until parliament sits again. Thanks for your company.
Here is a representation of postmodern politics by Matt Hatter.
@gabriellechan Hio📢 Postmodern Australian politics, or how I learnt to stop worrying & be excited. #deconstructedpol pic.twitter.com/RjVyW4Uthz
— The Matt Hatter (@MattGlassDarkly) July 11, 2016
Good arvo to you.
Updated
Gareth Parker at the West Australian is reporting:
About 200 votes cast in Cowan for the Greens were found in a pile counted as being cast for Liberal candidate Luke Simpkins, scrutineer sources have told thewest.com.au.
The votes were cast at the Tapping booth, which had reported an abnormally low Greens vote of 1.4% compared to 8% at the last election.
The error was discovered as part of a fresh count of votes this morning.
The AEC has Labor candidate Anne Aly ahead as of 3pm (AEST) by 786 votes.
Updated
As noted around the traps here, here and here, Malcolm Turnbull’s narrow election victory has increased the mouths to feed when it comes to ministry positions. There are conservatives to soothe, Nationals to muster and the competing interests of state and territory representation.
All of this is speculation of course, so it is difficult to work out who is pushing whose barrow.
But one of the more regular unsourced stories doing the rounds is the potential replacement of health minister Sussan Ley. It has been included in just about every “cabinet reshuffle” story since the election. It started with the prime minister’s Medicare mea culpa which suggested the Labor party had “fertile ground” in which to plant seeds of doubt regarding the Coalition’s commitment to Medicare.
It would appear this has been taken by some in the Coalition to mean Ley has been doing a bad job. The argument goes that she has not had enough influence to get the government on a strong health footing, or, that she has failed to sell the policy.
Just a short stroll down memory lane would tell us otherwise. Things went downhill for the Coalition on health from the eve of the 2013 election with Tony Abbott’s promise of no cuts to health. Cutting across that promise, the Commission of Audit recommended a co-payment, Abbott’s first health minister Peter Dutton prosecuted the case and then it was dropped like a stink bomb in the 2014 budget. After a lot of table slamming by Dutton and the Australian Medical Association among others, Ley was brought in to calm the waters. Once the co-payment was dumped, she got stakeholders together, implemented a Medicare benefit schedule review and instituted things such as trials for health care homes.
But it was the extension of the rebate freeze again, first implemented by Labor and extended by the Coalition, that really got doctors offside. Ley recently said while she wanted to lift the freeze, the departments of finance and treasury would not allow it. Then came the devastating election ads from the Royal College of General Practitioners. Ultimately the rebate freeze, combined with the earlier co-payment provided the “fertile ground” for Labor’s Medicare campaign. Ley reportedly wanted to prosecute the government case on health but was restrained by Liberal strategists. A day talking health was not considered a good day for the Liberals.
If her colleagues are now blaming Ley, it is both confusing and unfair IMO. If her crime is that she has not sold the policy well, the election result would suggest the policy itself is not trusted. If her crime is that she is not aggressive enough to win an arm wrestle with finance and treasury, then that must fall on the expenditure review committee and government’s overall budget strategy.
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Malcolm Turnbull informs governor-general he can form a government
The office of the governor-general informs me that the GG will be back on Saturday from the visit to France and is available any time after that for a swearing-in ceremony for the new Coalition ministry. The office has also just posted the correspondence between Malcolm Turnbull and Sir Peter Cosgrove on the matter. It includes the first letters on the Sunday after the election, advising Cosgrove that the result was unclear.
Turnbull wrote today to tell the governor-general that he was in a position to form a government. He told the GG that the Coalition had won at least 74 seats, and was ahead in two others with three more very close. Turnbull told Cosgrove that both Bob Katter and Cathy McGowan have given the Coalition their support on confidence and supply. Furthermore that Andrew Wilkie had committed not to block confidence and supply unless “clearly warranted”.
Updated
Peter Cosgrove is off to France
A statement from the PM:
The governor general, his excellency general the honourable Sir Peter Cosgrove AK MC (Retd), at my request will depart today to represent Australia in France on Bastille Day, 14 July.
Australia and France have a strong and enduring relationship which is anchored in history, common interests and shared values.
A hundred years ago Australian and French soldiers were fighting side by side to defend the liberty of France.
Today we have unprecedented opportunities to expand and deepen our relationship.
Australia and New Zealand will be nations of honour this year in France’s annual National Day celebrations.
We are honoured to join with our New Zealand friends and celebrate with France on this important day.
I have yet to receive a call from the governor-general’s office regarding the timing as it was my memory that the GG had already left. This was the reason for the GG not being able to complete the swearing in ceremony.
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Bill Shorten on David Feeney's future
Is David Feeney going to retain his position in the shadow cabinet?
He is not in the shadow cabinet now. Final question.
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What is truth in political advertising? I don't want to sound like a postmodernist but...
So back to Graeme Orr, professor of electoral law at the University of Queensland.
At issue here is political advertising. Not only has the Coalition cried foul, the independents and minor parties, including Cathy McGowan and Nick Xenophon, have made mention of the campaigns against them.
This is the commonwealth electoral act - section 329:
(1) A person shall not, during the relevant period in relation to an election under this Act, print, publish or distribute, or cause, permit or authorise to be printed, published or distributed, any matter or thing that is likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of a vote.
Orr said the courts have generally interpreted this section to mean more direct deceptions such as wrong how-to-vote cards.
But independents have been wondering aloud how it is that corporations law stops you making dodgy claims to consumers over products or services, while not protecting voters from dodgy political claims.
Orr said it did make sense to think about how similar rules could cover political speech.
What is truth in politics? I don’t want to sound like a post modernist... which doesn’t mean there isn’t scope for assessing political content.
Orr said politicians must also think about who would review potential laws and who would police them. He said the Australian Electoral Commission has not been keen to venture into this territory in the past.
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Lastly, Bill Shorten may make changes to his shadow cabinet.
I’ll consult with my colleagues in coming weeks. I am pleased with the shadow ministry. We’ve got lots of new talented people. I have a good problem, a happy problem. I’ve got a lot of talent, we’re going to put in the best possible line-up.
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Labor calls for an independent expert review of superannuation changes
Drilled further on budget measures, Bill Shorten again says the superannuation changes must not be retrospective.
And he calls for an independent review into the changes:
I think it’s probably appropriate to get an independent expert review to examine whether or not the changes are retrospective because clearly if this review says some of the changes are retrospective, Mr Turnbull says he doesn’t support retrospective changes. We can allay concerns of hundreds of thousands of superannuants and we’re not seeing capricious changes undermining the integrity of the system.
Bill Shorten briefly strays into the NSW government’s turf on the greyhound racing ban. He says “we want to make sure the animals’ welfare is upper most but don’t destroy people’s livelihoods along the way”.
There’s been scandalous behaviour in NSW and the welfare of those animals is most important but whether or not it’s taking a sledgeshammer to this issue, I don’t know. There’s people who have done the right thing and they’re being unfairly tarred with the same brush as the scallywags, scoundrels and criminals.
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Asked if he is committed to bipartisan budget reform, Bill Shorten says:
Labor’s very committed to doing budget repair that’s fair and I want to make the 45th parliament work. We’re heartened by the support we got but also recognise that Mr Turnbull’s got the ability and privilege of forming a government.
Which sounds like a bob each way.
Bill Shorten: Australians can smell insincerity a mile away
Bill Shorten says Labor will attempt to bring on a conscience vote on marriage equality as Labor does not support a plebiscite. (Labor has yet to reveal whether it will vote plebiscite legislation down in the Senate.)
I think Mr Turnbull needs to pick up one of the lessons from this election. It is a lesson for all of us in politics, the more you stick to your own conscience and what you believe, the better this country will run. Australians can smell inauthenticity, insincerity and political games a mile away. I think Mr Turnbull would do himself a big favour if he stuck to his own views before he became Liberal leader.
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Shorten mentions to previous Coalition deal, which included the plebiscite, no change on climate change policy (away from the emissions reduction fund) and the $1.2bn baby bonus scheme which were both at the behest of the National party.
The Australian people have the right to know what’s going on. The prime minister and deputy prime minister are not getting off to the best first step if their first action is to have a secret deal. How can Australians be expected to trust the Turnbull government if the Turnbull government’s first action is to strike a secret arrangement?
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Shorten: Coalition deal must be made public
Bill Shorten is speaking at a press conference. Shorten does not want to see any “secret deals” - he is speaking about the deal between the National party and the Liberal party.
It is a precondition for Mr Turnbull forming a government that he concludes a Coalition agreement with the National party, that the National party ticks off on Mr Turnbull’s government, but it is important these arrangements are not secret.
Australians are entitled to know what deals are being done to constitute the government of Australia. Not only should there not be a secret agreement, there shouldn’t be secret deals full stop. Australians are being asked to cooperate with this government but how can you get the cooperation of the parliament and Australian people if they’re not even told what the deals are all about.
Updated
Apologies for my absence. I was just talking to Graeme Orr, professor of electoral law at the University of Queensland. Given Michael Kroger’s claim over the Labor Medicare campaign, I was interested in finding out what the situation is at present. While corporations law says companies cannot mislead or deceive consumers buying widgets even unintentionally, the courts have previously ruled this does not apply to political speech.
Our election analyst Ben Raue has written a defence of paper voting. He has argued the old-fashioned system is much more transparent and worth the wait.
There may come a time where electronic voting becomes viable. We should start with a small trial, focusing on a small number of big-city pre-poll booths where voters could have a choice of voting by paper or on a computer. We would need to be very confident in the security, convenience, practicality and transparency before expanding this trial to a significant part of the Australian electorate.
In the meantime, Australians should be confident that our elections are conducted professionally, and that the time is taken to be sure that the result is right. If that means that we sometimes don’t know who has won a close election for a few days, it’s well worth the wait.
Infrastructure and transport minister Darren Chester has recommended senator Bridget McKenzie for a promotion, given the Nats are likely to get an extra frontbench position.
Both are Victorians.
Meanwhile, as noted earlier, Malcolm Turnbull has been meeting with the head of the department of prime minister and cabinet, Martin Parkinson.
Updated
Kids and animals.
Malcolm Turnbull meets Mila, daughter of photographer @cochl . Have you met a PM before? Yes, says Mila. Tony Abbott pic.twitter.com/Ckx02N7Xk6
— Gabrielle Chan (@gabriellechan) July 11, 2016
There is still a whole lot of counting going on. Phil Diak, the ever patient spokesman for the Australian Electoral Commission says 12.5m votes have been counted already. He expects, as always happens, that the parliament joint standing committee on electoral matters (JSCEM) will hold its usual review of the election. Consider the lessons learned. This also gives the public a chance to have a say, via submissions. He is talking about these things because both Turnbull and Shorten have entertained the idea of electronic voting in order to speed up the process.
This isn’t going to go away and ultimately we all know going down the track going forward, it’s going to keep coming up. We can see there is some implementation in - various ways around the world to assist remote voting. We even have electors in the Antarctic. It is something we know the community is interested in. It is something to be considered. I probably can’t go much further than that.
Remember last time the JSCEM reported after the WA senate re-run, it delivered:
- a recommendation that the Senate electoral system be changed to remove Group Voting Tickets and introduce optional preferential voting above and below the line; and
- A report recommending that Australian federal elections not move to electronic voting.
The committee looked at the “benefits and risks” associated with electronic voting. The committee reported:
We concluded that to introduce large-scale electronic voting in the near future would dangerously compromise federal electoral integrity. Subsequent events at the 2015 New South Wales state election with the iVote system suggest that the Committee’s cautious approach was warranted. At the same time, recognising the benefits of technological advancement, the Committee made targeted recommendations to safely make better use of technology in the electoral process.
Josh Frydenberg, resources minister, has been speaking to Jon Faine in Melbourne.
Will there be a shuffle and to what extent?
Well it won’t surprise you John to say I’m not in the inner sanctum as far as the prime minister is concerned about the reshuffle. But it looks like we’ve lost three ministers: Richard Colbeck, Wyatt Roy and Peter Hendy, although some of those Senate votes have yet to be counted. They do have to be filled and that’s a decision the prime minister has to make.
Will the Nationals pick up extra representation?
If, as expected, we hold the seats of Flynn and Capricornia in Queensland, they’re two Nationals seats, that will see their representation increase in the party. As to where that representation is, that’s up to Malcolm Turnbull and Barnaby Joyce.
What sort of government will we be left with?
Let’s remind ourselves that the Coalition did actually win this election. We won it in our own right. John Howard had the fight of his life in 1998 when he had a much larger swing against his first term government than we had this time and he went on to govern for a number of years.
Just on to those ministerial spots lost.
Peter Hendy was assistant finance minister.
Richard Colbeck was tourism minister.
Wyatt Roy was assistant innovation minister.
Updated
Michael Kroger: If Labor politicians were bound by the Corporations Act, they would be in jail
The Victorian Liberal president, Michael Kroger, is speaking to Kieran Gilbert on Sky. He agrees superannuation and tax cuts are key issues.
He is asked about the unhappiness of the conservatives. There are always unhappy people in politics, he notes. The should’ves and would’ves and could’ves.
I pay those people who are wise at the time.
Then he goes to the Medicare scare campaign. As opposed to the carbon tax scare campaign.
It will forever go down as Labor’s dirty campaign so this campaign won’t ever be forgotten. It made the campaign difficult and I’ve said to people there are no rules. You can say anything and these politicians on the Labor side, my God, if they were in the corporate sector and they were bound by the Corporations Act, most of them would be staying with her majesty – the way they lied during the campaign.
Updated
The CFA debacle is rolling on in Victoria. Malcolm Turnbull has told the Herald Sun that he will introduce legislation to amend the Fair Work Act in his first week in parliament, in response to the bitter industrial dispute over Victoria’s Country Fire Authority.
He made the promise in the last days of the election campaign after addressing a group of CFA volunteers in Geelong.
It is now up to Bill Shorten to work with the government to prevent this union takeover of the CFA and enshrine the rights of volunteers.
The Herald Sun campaigned strongly on the CFA issue throughout the federal election (it was their “Back the CFA” stickers plastered on to Liberal signs in rural electorates) and called on both sides of politics to condemn both the United Firefighters Union and the Andrews government for pushing the deal.
The proposed amendment to the Fair Work Act would see the list of “objectionable terms,” which cannot be included in an enterprise agreement, to include anything that would restrict the ability of volunteer emergency service authorities from carrying out their duties.
Of course, both the UFU and the Andrews government argue that the CFA deal does not restrict the ability of the CFA to carry out its duties.
Labor has played down the impact of the dispute on its primary vote in Victoria, but as Gay Alcorn wrote, Labor would probably have expected to do better in the progressive state had the CFA not been an issue.
Updated
Chris Bowen: the Australian public are beyond tit for tat games
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, has been speaking with ABC’s AM about bipartisan cooperation in the 45th parliament after Bill Shorten offered to seek to reach common ground with the Coalition.
Bowen said Labor had proposed a number of policies that would contribute to budget repair which it would support “in a heartbeat” if the government took them up.
Whether it’s reforming negative gearing ... reducing the capital gains tax discount, dealing with the [vocational education and training loan] rorts, there’s a policy the government could implement with our full support ... not proceeding with the plebiscite on marriage equality. There are lots of measures we are prepared to support and indeed the government, if they’re prepared to work with us, would get very quick passage through the parliament.”
Bowen said Labor would not support “zombie measures” from the 2014 budget such as the freeze on Medicare benefits, and changes which would make unemployed people wait a month before receiving Newstart and would make it harder for pensioners to travel overseas.
Asked whether Labor would “give as good as it had got” in the 43rd parliament, in which Julia Gillard led a minority government, Bowen said the Australian public were beyond “tit for tat” games like that.
We will not be engaged in the sort of wrecking ball approach Tony Abbott took for three years, that consistent negativity. Where we can work with the government, where we can work with the other parties in the parliament we will. The Australian people are looking for that sort of leadership and Labor will provide it.”
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The former Greens leader Christine Milne has been reading Katharine Murphy’s piece which I posted earlier.
@gabriellechan @murpharoo resetting rules also applies 2 media.Journos rate conflict,unnamed sources, celebrity, performance over substance.
— Christine Milne (@ChristineMilne) July 10, 2016
I take her point.
Everyone is emboldened, with the exception of Malcolm Turnbull
There are five seats still listed as close at the Australian Electoral Commission website. They are Cowan, Hindmarsh, Capricornia, Flynn and Herbert. Labor remains in front in Hindmarsh, Herbert and Cowan while the LNP remains ahead in Capricornia and Flynn.
Those last two seats are National party seats (notwithstanding the merger to LNP in Queensland) because those sitting MPs, Michelle Landry and Ken O’Dowd sit in the National party room. The Coalition expects to hold them.
Given the Nats also picked up Murray from the Liberal party when Sharman Stone retired, you could also place Barnaby Joyce in the emboldened category. To put it mildly, the Nats are pumped, even though two of their seats still hang in the balance.
Sid Maher at the Oz reports that the junior Coalition wants the communications portfolio.
The communications portfolio, including more say over the ABC, is among a list of potential demands by the Nationals as they push for a greater role in a re-elected Turnbull government.
The Nationals are also eyeing the small business ministry held by Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer.
Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has made passing the effects test, which is aimed at preventing big businesses acting in a way that damages small businesses, a key priority of the next parliament as well as cracking down on $1 milk offers by major supermarkets.
Nationals MPs will meet in Canberra tomorrow ahead of negotiations between Malcolm Turnbull and Mr Joyce.
With the Nationals increasing their representation from 21 to 22 members — assuming that leads in the marginal Queensland seats of Flynn and Capricornia are maintained and Queensland senator Barry O’Sullivan is returned — the junior Coalition partner looks to be in a position to demand another cabinet post.
Given Queensland is without a Nationals cabinet minister, Senator Matt Canavan, who is minister for northern Australia, would be the favourite to be elevated to cabinet.
The national broadband network, mobile and internet services are huge issues in the bush. In my travels, it was one of the most consistent messages from voters – as well as jobs. It is no good the government is spruiking trade agreements and jobs and growth, if people cannot be connected – and once connected, if they get expensive and slow data.
Updated
Katharine Murphy has written both a wonderful analysis of the task facing Malcolm Turnbull and a bit of a plea:
Australian voters want their politics to change. They despise the entrenched culture of self-interest, the rampant tantrums about entitlement, the court intrigues, gruesomely negative campaigns, and the zero sum game politics that have, too often, been the order of the day.
The voters are in sullen retreat from the bad habits of major party politics, and they are sick of being promised new dawns that fail to materialise.
I’m with the independent MP Cathy McGowan when she says a competitive parliament is a good parliament. I thought the minority parliament in 2010 was exceptionally effective when you look at the legislation it produced.
If our parliamentarians had any brains, they would use the coming parliament as an opportunity to reset the rules of the game, to try to respond to the message from the voters, which is a simple one in the 2016 election: do better, be better, understand our concerns, be more inclusive, work in the national interest, explain why reform matters and have a program to look after people who find themselves on the losing end of economic transition.
The parliament of Australia, which will actually be very representative over the next three years, exhibiting the full spectrum from progressive left to hard right, has an opportunity to clean up its collective act, and turn a page.
Hear hear.
Updated
Good morning blogans,
Malcolm Turnbull is back in Canberra. Bill Shorten has conceded defeat in a close run election. Whether you are the half that voted for Turnbull or the other half, that means the deadlock is over. But it will be another week before a swearing in and before there is a Coalition party room meeting. Turnbull’s first order of business is to replace a few junior ministers who lost their seats. He has conservatives fluffing up their wings, demanding more of a say. The National party leader Barnaby Joyce is also waiting to negotiate the new Coalition agreement.
The leader in the government in the house, Christopher Pyne, reminded Fran Kelly that John Howard lost a more seats in 1998 than the Coalition lost last Saturday. (Remember that was the GST election.)
John Howard, he said, went on to govern for nine years.
In a grand final, whether its one goal or six goals, a win is a win is a win.
Of Bill Shorten’s offer to work constructively, Pyne says:
Let’s hope he means it this time.
There is a little to and fro about the wisdom of changing leaders. Pyne says “we looked like we were going to be defeated nine months ago”.
So not much love lost for Abbott, but a whole lot of love for Medicare.
We will show through our actions over the course of the next three years, we value our services ... that we value Medicare.
The conservatives are emboldened. The Australian quotes an unnamed conservative MP on Turnbull:
His theory was to win and win comfortably so the conservatives would all have to kneel at the altar of Malcolm Turnbull; well, I think someone else will be kneeling at the conservative altar now.
Pyne is unruffled.
Sounds very brave and chest beating...but without a name, it’s just cowardice...I am not going to respond to cowardly statements from anonymous sources.
Asked if the plebiscite is still going to be delivered by the end of the year...
Of course it is.
But,
no one should feel hidebound on the month in which it will be held...we want everyone to have a say in this major social change.
So let’s get into it. I’m on the Twits @gabriellechan and on Facebook if you prefer more characters. Onwards and upwards.
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