TAMPA, Fla. — The beauty contest known as the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award belongs to quarterbacks.
No position is as attractive to voters as the player under center, the guy who handles the football on every snap and may be the best predictor of postseason success.
Thirteen of the last 14 league MVPs were quarterbacks, the only exception being Adrian Peterson when he rushed for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2012.
Rams receiver Cooper Kupp? He has an NFL-record 138 receptions for 1,829 yards and 15 touchdowns. Forget it. Randy Moss never won it and he was more dominant than Kupp, regardless of the numbers. Neither did Jerry Rice. The rules favor the passing game, and numbers are skewed these days.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor would seem to have a slightly better chance. He has rushed for 1,734 yards and 18 touchdowns but Indianapolis still has to beat the Jaguars to reach the playoffs. Those two are the non-quarterback favorites to make history. Good luck, fellas.
The race will come down to the league’s best quarterbacks: the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers and the Bucs’ Tom Brady.
Both are worthy, but recency bias would give the edge to Rodgers, who has passed for 3,977 yards with 35 touchdowns with four interceptions. He has his team at 13-3 and owners of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It would be Rodgers’ second straight MVP award, his fourth overall.
Hub Arkush, a Chicago sports radio host who is an Associated Press voter, said he isn’t voting for Rodgers for personal reasons.
“I don’t think you can be the biggest jerk in the league and punish your team, and your organization and your fan base the way he did and be the Most Valuable Player,” Arkush said Tuesday. “Has he been the most valuable on the field? Yeah, you could make that argument, but I don’t think he is clearly that much more valuable than Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp or maybe even Tom Brady. So from where I sit, the rest of it is why he’s not gonna be my choice. Do I think he’s gonna win it? Probably.”
We’ll get into the Rodgers vs. Brady argument shortly. But Rodgers did miss a game due to COVID-19 that the Packers lost to Kansas City. This after Rodgers misled some people outside the organization by saying he had been “immunized” when he was unvaccinated.
Regardless, Rodgers has all the momentum, having won six of seven since the Chiefs game.
But at the risk of sounding like someone shaking pom-poms for Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champ has the best argument to win his fourth NFL MVP award.
We’ll put aside the fact that he’s 44. Forty-four!
Brady needs 10 passing yards against the Panthers on Sunday to reach 5,000 for only the second time in his 21-year career and has thrown for at least 40 touchdowns a second straight year. Brady leads the NFL in passing yards, attempts (682), completions (456) and touchdowns.
The Bucs have the No. 1 offense in the NFL and it all flows through Brady. He also has the highest volume of throws in the league and it’s his job to carry the entire team.
He never has dropped back fewer than 30 times in a game this season and is averaging 37 passing attempts per game. Four times, he has attempted at least 50 passes.
By contrast, Rodgers has three games with fewer than 30 drop-backs and only six with more than 40 passing attempts.
A lot is made about Rodgers’ stunning lack of interceptions. But of Brady’s 12 picks, three came off receiver drops and deflections, and another was a Hail Mary. Not bad for 743 drop-backs, 156 more than Rodgers.
Then there are the intangibles. Neither team wins this many games without the starting quarterback.
But consider that Brady has had a heavier lift. The Bucs defense was decimated by injuries to the secondary, meaning early on, Brady needed to find a way to score at least 30 points a game not knowing if Todd Bowles’ group could hold up.
Brady also lost about 70% of the team’s offensive production in a span of about 10-12 plays during a 9-0 loss to the Saints on Dec. 19.
No Chris Godwin (ACL/MCL). No Leonard Fournette (hamstring). Antonio Brown missed seven games (injury/suspension). Mike Evans even missed a week with a hamstring strain.
So who did Brady have left to work with? Breshad Perriman, track star turned receiver Cyril Grayson and Tyler Johnson.
But that was enough to lead the Bucs to an overtime win over the Bills and go 93 yards with no timeouts for a touchdown to beat the Jets last Sunday, while throwing exclusively to Johnson and Grayson.
Neither the NFC South nor the NFC North are the best divisions in football. But the Packers have lived a charmed life. They got the Ravens on the road without Lamar Jackson and need a failed two-point conversion by Baltimore to win by a point.
They intercepted Baker Mayfield four times, but the Browns still had the ball near midfield needing a field goal to win.
Last Sunday, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins was in COVID-19 protocol.
The Bucs’ schedule was tougher and they have wins over the Cowboys, Bills, Colts and Eagles, all likely playoff teams.
Brady fell out the presumptive lead for MVP when the Bucs were shut out by the Saints. But the Packers lost 38-3 to the Saints in Week 1. If that result came within the last two weeks, would Rodgers still be the perceived leader in the MVP race?
The Bucs can win a franchise-record 13th regular-season game with a victory over the Panthers and possibly secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC if the 49ers beat the Rams.
Brady is having one of the best individual passing seasons of his career, but his leadership and belief impact every member of the organization.
No player has been more valuable to a franchise this season. Did I mention Brady is 44? Suffice to say Rodgers probably won’t be in this conversation six years from now.
What we’re watching likely will never be done by any quarterback again.
