Nine Big Ten teams will find out their bowl destinations on Sunday. Where will they be headed? And who are the likely opponents? Let’s look up and down the lineup and see what we can find. There are a few things that we know, though a ton is still up in the air. What happens this weekend–especially in the College Football Playoff race–will have trickle effects on all of the Big Ten’s biggest bowls.
First, we have to explain the Big Ten’s bowl process. After the Citrus Bowl, every bowl sends its preferred team(s) to the Big Ten. The conference then decide which teams go where, though there are some requirements. For example, most bowls have some sort of deal for “five teams in six years,” while the Pinstripe Bowl says its “goal is to have eight different Big Ten schools participate in eight years, with a minimum of six different” teams playing. As this year is the end of the six-year cycle for most of the bowls in the lineup, this leaves some bowls–most notably the Outback Bowl–in an awkward situation.
The easiest way to make sense of the lineup is to go through, bowl by bowl, what teams will be the likely option. Let’s start at the very top, where the answers are very obvious.
College Football Playoff
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Ohio State
Barring an incredible collapse on Saturday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will be going to the College Football Playoff. Either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl is possible for the Buckeyes, though the Fiesta Bowl seems more likely. There is also a very slight chance that Wisconsin could find its way into the tournament. If the Badgers do make it, that will have shakeups down the bowl lineup, as I will explain.
Rose Bowl Game
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State
Potential Opponents: Utah, Oregon
Based on the selection committee’s rankings this week, it seems very likely that Wisconsin will be going to the Rose Bowl. If, however, the Badgers get bumped down below Penn State after losing to Ohio State again, we could see the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl.
Remember, though, the Rose Bowl gets to select its Big Ten team. It will very likely follow the selection committee’s rankings, but it is not bound by them. So if Wisconsin loses badly but doesn’t drop in the rankings, it could still be passed over by the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl could even select Minnesota after the Gophers had their best season in over 50 years, though that no longer seems likely now that Minnesota is the Big Ten’s sixth-highest ranked team.
The opponent in this game will be either Utah or Oregon. If Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game but does not make it to the Playoff, then Utah will be the opponent. If Utah reaches the CFP or Utah loses the Pac 12 Championship Game, then Oregon will be the opponent.
Next… Other NY6 Bowls and New Years’ Day Bowls
Orange Bowl
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State
Potential Opponents: Virginia
The Big Ten is not guaranteed to get a team in the Orange Bowl. In fact, the most likely scenario right now is that it will not get one. If LSU beats Georgia and the Bulldogs don’t make the Playoff, then Georgia will go to the Sugar Bowl and, based on current rankings, Florida will go to the Orange Bowl. (The Orange Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team.) If two SEC teams make the Playoff (or if the committee changes its mind and moves Penn State back over Florida), then whichever of Penn State or Wisconsin does not go to the Rose Bowl will go to the Orange Bowl.
Virginia is essentially guaranteed to be the opponent in the Orange Bowl.
Cotton Bowl Classic
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State
Potential Opponents: Memphis, Cincinnati, Boise State
I don’t want to go too into this, because it does not seem likely that a Big Ten team will reach the Cotton Bowl. However, if the Big 12 Championship Game loser falls below Penn State and Wisconsin, or if the winner doesn’t reach the CFP, then there is a chance that a Big Ten school will receive the at-large bid to face the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion in the Cotton Bowl. This can only happen if no Big Ten team is selected for the Orange Bowl.
Citrus Bowl
Restrictions: Penn State
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Michigan
Potential Opponents: Alabama
Penn State cannot play in this game because it played in the Citrus Bowl last year. If Wisconsin falls this far, it will be tough for the Citrus Bowl to give up the Big Ten runner-up Badgers. Of course, the Citrus Bowl gets New Years’ Day billing and gets to pick its teams from the Big Ten and the SEC. The prospect of Michigan vs Alabama will just be too lucrative for the Citrus Bowl to give up. At this point, it would be shocking to see any other matchup.
Remember, though that the Citrus Bowl only gets a Big Ten team if an SEC team plays in the Orange Bowl.
Outback Bowl
Restrictions: Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin
Likely teams: Penn State, Minnesota
Potential Opponents: Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M
It would be shocking to see Penn State fall this far, but it’s not impossible. If the Nittany Lions just barely miss out on an NY6 Bowl (something that becomes far more likely if Virginia beats Clemson) then they will be shuffled down to the Outback Bowl. Assuming that doesn’t happen, though, the only real choice here is Minnesota. With restrictions on Iowa and Michigan, there are no real other options. The Outback Bowl and Big Ten would both prefer to see Minnesota in this game instead of Indiana, which is the only other theoretically possible choice. (In the incredibly unlikely event that the Rose Bowl picks Minnesota and Penn State gets the Orange or Cotton Bowl, we could theoretically see Indiana here, but that’s not happening.)
The only team I can see the SEC putting in this game is Auburn. It would be a ranked vs ranked matchup in a good New Years’ Day game. If the SEC prefers to send Auburn to the Gator Bowl for some reason, then Texas A&M and Tennessee are the other two options, with the choice likely going to Texas A&M.
Gator Bowl
Restrictions: Iowa, Penn State
Likely teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana
Potential Opponents: Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M
I don’t actually think Wisconsin will still on the board at this point. However, if Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin doesn’t get an NY6 game, and the Citrus Bowl takes Michigan, this is where the Badgers will end up. Yes, that’s very unlikely. But it is a possibility, and likely not one that Wisconsin fans will appreciate. Similarly, if Penn State fell to the Outback Bowl in the unlikely scenario given above, then Minnesota would be selected here. Still, by far the most likely case is that Indiana goes to the Gator Bowl. If Wisconsin or Penn State is in the Orange Bowl, which means that the Big Ten doesn’t play in the Citrus Bowl, then Michigan will almost certainly play in this game.
The opponent will likely be Texas A&M, though Auburn and Tennessee are possibilities as well.
Next… The rest of the Big Ten bowls
Holiday Bowl
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Iowa
Potential Opponents: USC, Washington
Iowa can book its ticket to the Holiday Bowl. No matter how the above scenarios play out, it all leads to Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are restricted from the Outback and Gator Bowls, and won’t be selected for an NY6 Bowl or the Citrus Bowl. The Big Ten won’t let the Hawkeyes fall farther than this, so even if the Holiday Bowl would prefer Indiana (it wouldn’t), the conference will send Iowa here.
The Holiday Bowl has the third selection from the Pac 12. If the Pac 12 gets a team in the Playoff, that moves down to fourth. USC will most likely be the third selection, so the Trojans will play in this game if the Pac 12 has no Playoff team. If Utah does make the Playoff, then USC will go to the Alamo Bowl, and the Holiday Bowl will most likely take Washington. Cal and Arizona State are technically options as well, but I would be very surprised if it’s not USC or Washington. (The Holiday Bowl might try to select Washington over USC if both are available. That’s technically against Pac 12 rules, but the bowl might try to get an exception made for Chris Petersen’s final game.)
Pinstripe Bowl
Restrictions: Indiana
Likely teams: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Potential Opponents: Pitt, Wake Forest, Louisville
The Pinstripe Bowl restriction is a soft one, not an unbreakable one. It’s more of a preference than a restriction. So, in the unlikely scenario that Indiana is still available (see the Gator Bowl section above), the Hoosiers could go to this game. The conference might not want to see Indiana be rewarded with a Redbox Bowl bid for an 8-4 season. Then again, maybe the Hoosiers would be okay with that, and might prefer the nicer weather. Of course, this is all dealing with a very unlikely scenario. Assuming that Indiana is unavailable for this game, Michigan State will play in it. Illinois is not an option in that case due to Michigan State’s restriction from the Redbox Bowl.
Figuring out the ACC bowl picture is an absolute mess right now. The ACC has a “pool” of four bowls that it selects its best options for, after the CFP, NY6, Citrus (potentially) and Camping World Bowls. Three of those four teams are Pitt, Louisville, and Wake Forest. If the ACC doesn’t get a team in the Citrus Bowl, then Notre Dame goes to the Camping World Bowl and Virginia Tech is the fourth “pool” team. If, however, the ACC does get a Citrus Bowl team, then the fourth “pool” team could be literally any bowl-eligible ACC team. It’s a mess.
Redbox Bowl
Restrictions: Michigan State
Likely teams: Indiana, Illinois
Potential Opponents: Washington, Cal, Arizona State
As described above (a few times), there is a tiny chance that Indiana is still available for this game. However, by far the most likely Big Ten team in the Redbox Bowl is Illinois. Michigan State played in this game last year and therefore cannot play there this year.
The Redbox Bowl gets the Pac 12 selection right after the Holiday Bowl. If Washington is still available, the Huskies will likely be the selection. If not, then it would likely be Arizona State, though Cal is an option. In the very unlikely event that the Holiday Bowl selected Washington over USC (see the Holiday Bowl section), then USC would be locked into this bowl.
Quick Lane Bowl
Restrictions: None
Likely teams: Michigan State, Illinois
Potential Opponents: North Carolina, Boston College
Minnesota is technically restricted from the Quick Lane Bowl, but that won’t be relevant. Actually, it’s possible that this game isn’t relevant at all. If the Big Ten places a team in the Cotton Bowl, then it won’t have an available team for the Quick Lane Bowl. Assuming that the Big Ten doesn’t get that at-large, though, then either Michigan State or Illinois will play in this game.
The opponent will be one of the 6-6 ACC teams. This bowl gets the final selection from the ACC, so North Carolina and Boston College are the most likely options. Miami (Fl) and Florida State aren’t impossible, though.
