The agenda included sessions on “Islamic extremism”, freedom of religion and the challenge of being a young conservative on campus. There were talks on the national debt and dismantling the state broadcaster. Speakers contemplated whether it was time to do away with elites – and whether “Trumpism” could be exported to Canada.
The Manning Conference has long ranked as an annual pilgrimage of sorts for Canada’s conservatives, offering a window into the broader issues facing the movement. But this year’s agenda left many wondering whether the divisive wedge politics that have rattled countries around the world over the past year have landed in Canada.
“The party is being beckoned down a very dark road,” noted one political columnist while others highlighted the smattering of Make America Great Again hats being worn at the conference.
The conference agenda, said Conservative strategist Tim Powers, comes down to a question being asked by the party: “Are we immune from or are we infected by whatever it is that happened in Britain with Brexit and happened in America with Trump?”
The question comes at a moment when the Conservatives in Canada are at a crossroads. 2015 saw Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party sweep into a majority government, bringing an abrupt end to nine years of Conservative power. The party has since been focused on choosing a new leader among 14 contenders who offer wildly varying views on what’s next for the party.
For many of these candidates, the race is now on to determine whether the same pressures that saw Donald Trump elected president and the UK vote for Brexit are at play in Canada, said Powers.
“And nobody – because of how analysts and traditional politicians got it wrong in both England and in the United States – is prepared to go out on a limb and say no, Canada is truly different and this won’t happen here because they don’t want to end up cleaning the muck off their face.”
The result is a slate that include Kellie Leitch, an orthopaedic surgeon who has railed against the elite and pushed the idea that all visitors and newcomers to the country need to be screened for “Canadian values”.
It also includes Michael Chong, who singled out Leitch after six men were shot and killed at a Quebec mosque earlier this year. “This mosque attack is no accident,” Chong wrote on social media, later adding: “Playing footsie with hate is anathema to Canadians’ values. It is dangerous, it is cynical and we need to root it out.”
Others, such as veteran politician Maxime Bernier – who is currently leading the pack when it comes to fundraising – have homed in on traditional hot-button issues for the Conservatives, vowing to cut taxes and privatise services such as mail delivery and airports.
And since he entered the race in January, TV personality and millionaire businessman Kevin O’Leary has drawn comparisons to Trump over their status as outsiders and focus on smaller government and cutting red tape. The two, however, differ on immigration, with O’Leary stating that Canada does not have a problem with the issue.
With months left until the new leader is chosen in May, the weight the party will give to immigration remains a big unknown, said Jim Farney. “Five years ago I would have said it’s the only major rightwing party in the western world that’s not divided over immigration.”
Part of this can be explained by geography. Bordered by oceans and the United States, Canada has been relatively buffered from significant amounts of illegal immigration. Policies have instead sought out newcomers based on wealth or professional qualifications. “So we’re getting people who have a lot of skills and a lot of capital to bring and so the Canadian business community has always been pretty open to it,” said Farney.
The country’s electoral system also plays a role. Many battleground electoral districts, known as ridings, are tucked into the diverse suburbs of Canada’s biggest cities, forcing parties to forge a bridge to newcomers. “I can’t imagine a party making a serious run at government and embracing a kind of Trump-style nativism,” said Farney. “It just won’t work.”
Still, the issue has at times crept on to the federal stage; in the 2015 election, the Conservatives promised to launch a hotline to allow Canadians to report “barbaric cultural practices”, and defended efforts to ban face coverings during citizenship ceremonies.
Regardless of who is chosen as the party’s next leader, the party will probably include a whiff of populism, said Tom Flanagan, a former campaign manager for the Conservatives.
“First of all you have to recognise that Canadian populism is not some sort of imitation of Trump. Canada pioneered modern populism with the Reform party,” he said, citing the late 1980s, when Conservatives in western Canada seized on widespread political disenchantment to launch their own party. “And the Americans were coming up to Canada to study it and the name Reform was borrowed into the United States with Ross Perot for example.”
The federal parties on the right eventually joined forces, launching as the Conservative Party of Canada in 2003 and electing Stephen Harper as its first leader. His exit from politics last year has left the party facing its first major overhaul since the merger, with some arguing that a split is again imminent as the right grapples with how much to make of the turbulence that has marked politics around the world.
Flanagan dismissed any suggestion of a split on the right. “Parties get split when people are disillusioned with all of the existing alternatives and they want something new … I don’t see any evidence of that now,” he said.
Instead, some elements of Trump’s program, such as concerns over irregular immigration into Canada and worries that Canada may not be competitive if Trump moves forward with plans to slash corporate taxes, would probably migrate north of the border and find a home within the Conservatives. “I think you’ll see specific aspects of Trumpism, if you want to call it that, coming across the border,” he said. “But that’s different from an entire shakeup of the political system.”
