PHILADELPHIA _ Maikel Franco stood 70 feet from first base on Thursday night and watched. Marlins left fielder Derek Dietrich backed himself to the wall and waited.
Something had to give.
Franco's homer cleared the fence, fell into the first few rows of the left-field seats and gave the Phillies a walk-off 5-2 win. Franco, as soon as he saw the ball drop, emphatically threw his bat in the air and yelled toward the Phillies dugout. The party, after a frustrating night, was finally on.
The Phillies had lost their previous 38 games when trailing after eight innings. Rhys Hoskins, who homered in the fourth, started the ninth with a leadoff walk. He was lifted for pinch-runner Scott Kingery, who scored on a bases-loaded groundout by Nick Williams. Carlos Santana reached on an infield single, Asdrubal Cabrera walked, Williams made the second out, and Franco provided the thrilling finish.
The Phillies remained in first place by a half-game over the Braves, who beat the Mets. They also did not waste Nick Pivetta's strong night. He pitched six innings and allowed two runs, both of which scored on a homer in the fourth. He struck out seven and walked none. It was Pivetta's best start in several weeks. It came against a weak lineup, but it provided a glimmer of confidence that Pivetta can contribute down the stretch.
The Phillies, as they play the final two months of a playoff race, need to know what they have in Pivetta. A long rain delay would have forbid them that chance. The offense provided little help.
Major League Baseball released its playoff schedule on Thursday and the National League Divisional Series begins on October 4. The Phillies know who will pitch their first two playoff games if they can reach October. A starter for the third game is the question. That's why nights like Thursday are so important. Not only do the Phillies have to reach the playoffs, they have to figure out what they will do if they get there.
Pivetta's night was marred by a change-up that Justin Bour crushed to right field. The pitch sat on the plate and waited to be hammered. It was a mistake similar to the two he made in his last start against the Reds when they bashed two of his flat sliders for homers. It is limiting those mistakes, Gabe Kapler said, that are the key to Pivetta tapping into his potential.
That potential was evident again. Pivetta attacked with his fastball and mixed in an effective curveball. He is averaging nearly 15 strikeouts per nine innings over his last three starts. The talent is there. But he has also allowed homers in three of his last four starts. Those are the mistakes that need to be eliminated to accentuate the strikeouts.
Thursday night lowered Pivetta's xFIP to 3.21, the 12th-best mark among major-league starters. Some view this advanced stat as a truer measure of a pitcher than ERA. It is the first stat that Gabe Kapler looks at when he digs through numbers on his iPad. But Pivetta's ERA is 1.54 runs higher than his xFIP. Only one other pitcher who ranks near Pivetta has a similar disparity between ERA and xFIP.
"That happens," Kapler said. "I start with FIP than I look at ERA. If they're out of whack and the FIP is much lower than the ERA, my feeling is that the ERA is just slated to come down a little bit. What FIP is really useful for is predicting what might happen next. It's just showing a better predictor than ERA but ERA tells a great story of what has happened thus far."
