The active Covid-19 caseload is below 50 in at least 14 districts in Maharashtra and in single digits in seven of them, data from the public health department showed.
“Active cases have started dropping significantly in these districts as Maharashtra begins nearing the end of the second wave,” state disease surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate told TOI. Districts like Nandurbar, Yavatmal, Washim (see box) had active cases in single digits.
“As the incidence of Covid-19 and daily detections have reduced in these districts, active cases have fallen, too. Active cases are currently below 100 in many districts in Maharashtra, while the maximum active cases are concentrated only in eight to nine districts,” said Awate.
He said though testing had reduced in some of these districts, it is only because the number of tests conducted is directly proportional to the number of new positive cases being detected and their contacts. The reduction in active cases in these districts was, thus, in no way the fallout of fewer tests, he said. “It is because the second wave is losing steam in these regions,” he said.
“For instance, if a region has 10 new positive cases, all the contacts of these new cases are traced and tested for Covid. When there is a reduction in new positive cases, then naturally their contacts also reduce, causing a drop in daily tests. Therefore, there is an automatic dip of 10-20% in testing when new positive cases reduce. Also, there has been a marked drop in influenza-like illnesses or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases in these districts, which is another reason for the drop in testing in some of these districts,” he said.
Awate said the waning of the second wave was also visible from the positivity rate in Maharashtra. “According to WHO, with positivity rate being consistently under 5%, the outbreak can be considered to be under control. In the last three to four weeks, the state’s weekly positivity rate has been 2.5%-2.6%. The second wave may, thus, be nearing its end in Maharashtra, provided the coming weeks show a reduction in positivity rate in the six to seven districts of concern,” he said.
State Covid-19 task force member Dr Shashank Joshi told TOI: “The state is now approaching a period when several districts may become Covid-free, which is a good sign. By looking at the active and new cases in 13-14 districts, it can be inferred that they are now almost free of the second wave. But they cannot be complacent, and these districts will have to ensure full vaccination of almost 80% of the population to keep another surge at bay.”
