Venezuela's authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro is reluctant to agree to any deal to leave power because he doesn't believe he would get lasting amnesty, according to a new report.
The Wall Street Journal noted that Maduro only feels safe among loyalists, and both him and his inner circle believe the Trump administration is bluffing with its military campaign off the country's coast.
The only way to oust him, they claim, would be physically sending troops to Venezuela, something they consider unlikely. "The calculation for Maduro is that he will always be safer here than anywhere else," Phil Gunson, analyst for the International Crisis Group, told the outlet.
Moreover, staying in Venezuela under a new government could see them face prosecution for different crimes, including drug-trafficking, tacking kickbacks in the energy industry, and more. And the regime believes that a government led by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who has won the Nobel Peace Prize, would be uncompromising. In a new "Freedom Manifesto," she said the regime "must be held accountable."
Another report claimed that U.S. officials also believe it would be hard to convince Maduro to leave, but because he could be executed by Cuban handlers.
Axios detailed that the assessment took place as Trump plans to speak directly with Maduro even as the U.S. continues its military buildup off its coast.
Trump said on Tuesday that he "might talk" with Maduro. "If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way, that's fine. And if we have to do it the hard way, that's fine too."
Naim also told Spanish outlet El Pais that Maduro might claim he is eager to engage with Trump but he won't negotiate. All what dialogue sessions have done is help Maduro "buy time and stabilize his power, without fulfilling the agreements he signs."
Political scientist Carmen Beatriz Fernandez also told the outlet "Maduro is willing to engage in dialogue, but not to concede anything." "For Maduro, dialogue is a charade; a photo op. He is willing to talk, but not to negotiate," she added.
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